Big Ten Football: Preview and Predictions for 2018 Season
The Big Ten enters the 2018 season as the deepest conference in the country despite not being represented in the College Football Playoff last season. The conference finished the 2017 bowl season with a country-best 7-1 record and then saw Nebraska add Scott Frost as their head coach.
Even with the conference experiencing turbulence late this summer with investigations into Ohio State's Urban Meyer and Maryland's D.J. Durkin, there are still star coaches aplenty who can build a juggernaut. There's not a conference more capable of producing a one-loss playoff contestant.
Most of the buzz surrounds the loaded East Division, but Wisconsin, Frost's Nebraska, and Iowa are formidable foes who can end a playoff bid swiftly on a Saturday afternoon. The question is whether the conference will cannibalize itself in conference competition.
With more dynamic quarterbacks added to the fold this year, the conference may finally see its next superstar at the position emerge. If a Russell Wilson, Troy Smith or Kirk Cousins-type player can develop, the conference may have a potential national championship favorite.
Biggest Stars
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After racking up over 4,000 total yards and 39 touchdowns in 2017, all eyes will be on Penn State quarterback Trace McSorley to see what he can accomplish as a senior. He'll have to do more heavy lifting than ever before after losing 49 percent of the offensive production around him. That includes superstar running back Saquon Barkley.
That figure doesn't include the loss of offensive coordinator Joe Moorhead. McSorley's unique ability to connect on floating deep passes won't suddenly disappear, though it'll be important for this offense to create easy yards whenever possible.
The diminutive gunslinger won't allow his Nittany Lions to be forgotten about. Expect him to continue to put fear into defenses every time he drops back and post huge numbers while he does it.
The best overall offensive player is Wisconsin's Jonathan Taylor. The 5'11", 221-pounder bulldozed and blazed his way to finishing sixth in the Heisman Trophy race in 2017. His 1,977 rushing yards set an FBS record by a freshman, and it's certainly feasible he cracks the 2K mark this year.
Taylor will be playing behind arguably the best offensive line in the country and faces a favorable schedule. He can quickly establish his Heisman case as Wisconsin will have a difficult month of games from mid-September through mid-October. A stretch against BYU, at Iowa, Nebraska, and at Michigan will put Taylor in the national spotlight as he attempts to carry his team to the playoff.
Stanley Morgan Jr.
New Nebraska head coach Scott Frost is inheriting the two most-productive returning receivers in the conference. Stanley Morgan Jr. is the bigger star of the two, boasting a physical 6'1", 195-pound frame that can do it all. Expect Frost to put Morgan Jr. in a similar featured role as he did with former UCF star receiver Tre'Quan Smith in 2017.
Morgan can climb the ladder to win jump balls or take a curl route to the house. His 986 yards and 10 touchdowns last year are sure to see an increase as Frost's offense will move Morgan around the field to create mismatches.
Watch for the senior to earn consideration for the Fred Biletnikoff Award this year.
Noah Fant
There's not a more dynamic athlete at the tight end position in college football than Iowa's Noah Fant. The 6'5", 243-pounder led the conference with 11 touchdowns last year as the Hawkeyes' passing game opened up with quarterback Nate Stanley's development. It's earned him early hype as a potential first-round pick by ESPN's Todd McShay.
Fant's ability to play in-line as a traditional tight end or in the slot maximizes his physical advantage over linebackers and safeties. Iowa even found some success flexing him out as a wide receiver, where his size is too great for corners to stand a chance on a decently thrown ball.
There are going to be a lot of eyes watching Iowa this year, and Fant has the chance to have a special campaign.
Nick Bosa
Choosing between defensive end Nick Bosa and J.K. Dobbins to represent the Ohio State Buckeyes here was not an easy decision. Dobbins could very well run his way into the Heisman race, but Bosa may be the best overall player in the country and be a top-three pick in the 2019 NFL draft. Like his brother Joey, Nick Bosa has a skill set that'll require multiple blockers assigned to him on every passing play.
The 6'4", 270-pound end racked up 8.5 sacks, 15 quarterback hits and 25 hurries in 2017, per CFB Film Room. His blend of strength, hand usage and ability to bend the edge to get to the quarterback is pro-ready despite him entering his junior season.
He'll lead one of the top two defensive lines each week as he causes nightmares for opponents.
Rashan Gary
Michigan Wolverines strong-side defensive end Rashan Gary is one of the more physically overwhelming players in the country. He's as strong as a defensive tackle in the run game and is capable of throwing aside blockers to make plays in the backfield. Gary's not just a run-stuffer, though, as he finished with 5.5 sacks and 15 quarterback hurries in 2017.
His versatility will be utilized more often this season after defensive tackle Maurice Hurst graduated last season. He's often too quick for guards to stay in front of and too strong for tackles to keep their hands on him.
Top Storylines
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Will Shea Patterson be the difference-maker Michigan needs at quarterback?
The spotlight will immediately be on Michigan's new offense featuring former Ole Miss quarterback Shea Patterson. Patterson is coming from Phil Longo's Air Raid offense, a dramatically different approach than what Jim Harbaugh's ever utilized at any of his stops. The Wolverines' showdown with Notre Dame on September 1 is a massive test for how quickly Harbaugh can integrate Patterson.
What works well in Patterson's favor is the offensive talent around him. While the Ole Miss receiving corps was deeper, Donovan People-Jones has All-Conference potential, and Tarik Black could be back by the end of the season to provide a late boost. The offensive line is a question mark, but Patterson's mobility and out-of-pocket creation can be a major asset in helping their performance.
Where Harbaugh can help Patterson the most comes in the nuance of the position. He plays similarly to Penn State's Trace McSorley, but he has a stronger arm. His footwork is often too erratic as his base gets wide and it affects his velocity and accuracy. He'll also have to be less frenetic when his first read is covered.
Experience can help both of those problems, too. But Patterson will need to show growth by October as Michigan faces Wisconsin, Michigan State, and Penn State between October 13 and November 3. If he meets expectations, the Wolverines could find themselves winning the conference and playing in the playoff.
How much can be expected from Scott Frost in his first year?
A coaching change as high-profile as Nebraska's successful luring of alumnus Scott Frost often sets expectations through the roof. Nebraska's experienced two losing seasons in the last three after having just two losing seasons between 1962 and 2014. With the Big Ten West having only two likely cupcakes in Illinois and Minnesota, Nebraska's upside may be eight wins this year.
Frost's Cornhuskers will only have three out-of-conference games before facing a monthlong gauntlet that includes Michigan, Wisconsin and Northwestern on the road. Three of their last four games are traveling to Ohio State, hosting Michigan State and hosting Iowa to close out the regular season.
That's a tough draw for Frost, and it's asking a lot of true freshman quarterback Adrian Martinez. Of course his job isn't hanging in the balance of whether the Huskers win the West, but a seven-win season can still be successful considering the shape that Mike Riley left it in.
Which team in the West emerges behind Wisconsin?
Few expect any team other than Wisconsin to win the West Division for good reason. Wisconsin is deeper with more explosive talent than any other team among the seven West contestants. But with Northwestern coming off a 10-win season, Iowa emerging with a legitimate quarterback in Nate Stanley, Nebraska snatching Scott Frost, and Purdue head coach Jeff Brohm entering his second year, there's going to be much more competition on a weekly basis this season compared to last.
Purdue and Iowa face the biggest uphill climbs amongst the four as they returned the least amount of production from 2017. Purdue's defense is littered with talented but green underclassmen, and they must face legitimate out-of-conference foes in Missouri and Boston College in Weeks 3 and 4, respectively. Their potential saving grace is they host Northwestern, Ohio State, Iowa and Wisconsin.
Iowa has the most favorable schedule of all. It must travel to Penn State but have the rest of their key games in the friendly confines of Kinnick Stadium. Stanley's growth will be critical since their defense is also inexperienced. The combination of his upside and their schedule gives the team a higher ceiling than Nebraska and Purdue.
The Favorites
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Ohio State
Urban Meyer will be back prior to the Ohio State Buckeyes' first major conference game against Penn State and that could be the deciding factor in that matchup. Ohio State has incredible depth and playmaking on both sides of the ball. They may be the most talented team in the country if quarterback Dwayne Haskins is as good as he showed in a very small sample last year.
We'll touch on the offense more later, but the defense is especially stacked once again. Edge-rushers Nick Bosa and Chase Young both appear to be future top-10 NFL draft picks, and tackle Dre'Mont Jones is disruptive enough to become a first-rounder as well. Their rotation beyond the starters will keep the unit fresh while opposing offensive lines will be overwhelmed.
The back seven of the defense is young but dynamic. Corners Kendall Sheffield and Jeffrey Okudah are the next two superstars at the position, and they have a bevy of capable linebackers who can start. There may be some growing pains early in the season, though, so they could be vulnerable against TCU and Penn State if their pure talent doesn't mesh within Greg Schiano's and Alex Grinch's scheme.
Wisconsin
Wisconsin head coach Paul Chryst has done a fantastic job with the Badgers as he's won 34 games over his first three seasons. They've yet to win their share of the conference title, though, and pressure is mounting. 2018 may be their best shot yet due to the experience on their roster.
Much of the attention will justifiably go to running back Jonathan Taylor and the offensive line. Those are known quantities that will carry this team far, but it's quarterback Alex Hornibrook who will be the key factor for this team's ceiling. His 2017 season was a roller coaster as his performance fluctuated wildly each week.
Hornibrook finished six games with a completion percentage below 58 percent and four more under 200 yards passing. He doesn't need to rack up stats like an Air Raid quarterback for this team to take the next step, but his efficiency and playmaking must make defenses respect him. Their showdowns in Ann Arbor and Happy Valley will put him directly in the spotlight.
Michigan
The Michigan Wolverines have a lot of momentum from the offseason working in their favor despite limping to an 8-5 finish last year. The arrival of Shea Patterson can elevate this program right into the College Football Playoff discussion. But this team has their work cut out for them as they have five teams ranked in the preseason Top 12 on their schedule.
It begins Week 1 against Notre Dame, and there are few breaks in between their marquee matchups. SMU in Week 3 and Nebraska in Week 4 aren't cupcakes due to their unique schemes, and then the Wolverines travel to Northwestern directly after. Two weeks later, they begin their three-game gauntlet against Wisconsin, Michigan State and Penn State. They'll truly have to earn the right to win the conference with this schedule.
We'll get more to the defense shortly, but their backbone will have to be strong again. The variety of schematic styles they'll see is unique and will test them greatly. It may be too much to ask of the offense to be consistently clicking during a challenging first month of play, but an opportunistic defense will help.
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
The Challengers
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Penn State
On top of losing the aforementioned 51 percent of their offensive production, the Nittany Lions lost 52 percent of their defensive production from last year. Several excellent recruiting classes have the team stacked deeper than any of their rosters in recent years, but their inexperience will be greatly tested.
Replacing Saquon Barkley won't be easy, but junior Miles Sanders is as qualified as anyone to pick up the offensive slack. The former top running back recruit has averaged 6.7 yards per carry in limited playing time. Star receiver Juwan Johnson will also be heavily relied upon to make Trace McSorley's job a little easier.
The defense has questions, though, and less guaranteed offensive firepower than last year creates concerns as to whether they'll be able to repeat their 41 points-per-game achievement. Most of the front seven consists of backups who are now starters due to departures, and the secondary has question marks as well. Junior corner John Reid must prove he's 100 percent after a torn ACL that kept him out last year, and both safeties must establish themselves as impactful starters.
Michigan State
Despite being middle of the Big Ten in almost all significant offensive and defensive statistics in 2017, Michigan State found itself finishing with a three-game win streak to reach 10 wins on the season. There's significant room for growth on both sides of the ball, which is encouraging for a team that has a favorable schedule. The Spartans have a difficult stretch in the middle of the season but they have one month to iron out issues before hosting Northwestern.
The offense is hopeful that quarterback Brian Lewerke can be more consistent with his accuracy. Lewerke's best performances showed real potential to be a playmaker at the position. But when his placement is poor, his receivers had no chance to make plays at the catch point and it left the offense plodding behind LJ Scott.
The defensive outlook looks clearer for the Spartans. Most of the unit is experienced and another year will only help a stout run defense become more of a strength. Cornerbacks Justin Layne and Josiah Scott will be counted on to force turnovers and give the offense better starting field position.
Northwestern
It seems as though Northwestern's unlikely run to complete their 2017 season was forgotten as much of the preseason attention has gone to other upstarts in the Big Ten West. Head coach Pat Fitzgerald and senior quarterback Clayton Thorson are as well-positioned as any team to threaten Wisconsin for the chance to play in Indianapolis in the conference title game. Some of that is due to several schedule breaks and it's a competitive roster.
The Wildcats absolutely can't afford to stumble out of the gate early again this year, though. They'll travel to play Purdue to kick the season off before going out of the conference two games. Then they face Michigan, Michigan State and Nebraska. Even for a comparatively easier schedule, they're going to be pushed to their limits.
Fitzgerald must replace star running back Justin Jackson, but his biggest hurdle won't be replicating the fourth-best offense in the conference. The defense ranked seventh in points allowed per game, but last in passing yards allowed per game. Simply put, they need better from a secondary that now boasts two seniors and one junior.
Best Rivalry Matchup: The Game: Ohio State vs. Michigan
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If the schedule goes chalk, then once again The Game will carry a massive amount of additional weight on top of being a premier sports rivalry. Other conference rivalry games will help determine which powerhouse will wind up on top of the Big Ten mountain, but the tradition, stakes and personalities involved in this matchup are too great to dethrone anytime soon.
The Buckeyes are three wins away from tying Michigan's nine-game winning streak record set from 1901-1909.
Iconic head coaches Urban Meyer and Jim Harbaugh are hoping their young quarterback will blossom into stars to give their team a fresh skill set to design an offense around. The Buckeyes have averaged 35.5 points per game this decade in The Game, with Michigan at just 24.6. Harbaugh desperately needs to beat Meyer for the first time or else the fanbase may become more hostile toward him.
Whether the contest comes down to a controversial 4th-and-1, a Heisman moment or The Game becomes another Game of the Century, there's always a chance of greatness emerging from this rivalry.
Coach on the Hot Seat: Lovie Smith
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Now entering his third year with the Illinois Fighting Illini, head coach Lovie Smith must start creating wins for him to stay employed in Champaign. His 5-19 record is the worst stretch the program has endured since Ron Zook's first two years in 2005-2006. There must be some tangible proof of progress by the end of the season.
Smith named fifth-year grad transfer AJ Bush Jr. his starting quarterback, and first-year offensive coordinator Rod Smith appears set on running a faster spread attack that can take advantage of Bush's mobility. There will be growing pains since Bush has yet to play significant snaps but the alternative was going back to Cam Thomas or going with freshman M.J. Rivers II.
There are positive signs as of now that some momentum can be created for 2019. According to Mark Tupper of the Herald & Review, it's the youngest team in the country as 76.5 percent of the roster are underclassmen. It's tough to envision them pulling off an upset against one of the elite conference foes, but they do host Minnesota, Purdue and Iowa at home.
If Smith can't get to four or five wins this year, his tenure may already be over. While Illinois won't lure a premier coaching candidate, Smith must prove this season he can develop young players.
Best Offense: Ohio State
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The J.T. Barrett-era Buckeyes offense has departed, giving us the chance to see what their passing woes against top competition was a byproduct of. Sophomore quarterback Dwayne Haskins is an NFL-style passer who can hit tight passing windows unlike his predecessor. Whether Haskins can consistently be an above-average passer remains to be seen, but offensive coordinator and acting head coach Ryan Day can lean on an experienced receiving corps to help him develop.
The offensive line is especially noteworthy and separates the Buckeyes from all peers except Wisconsin. Tackles Thayer Munford and Isaiah Prince have the perfect blend of athleticism, size and strength to be well-rounded blockers in Ohio State's smashmouth spread offense. Guard Michael Jordan is also a stalwart presence.
Running backs J.K. Dobbins and Mike Weber headline a deep group for Day and Urban Meyer to utilize. Dobbins is a phenom who may end up in New York for the Heisman ceremony due to his breakaway explosion. Weber is the country's most overqualified backup and is capable of logging 1,000 yards behind Dobbins if given the touches.
It's possible the Buckeyes best their Big Ten-leading mark of 41.1 points per game from 2017 with Haskins at the helm. He'll have growing pains but can unlock a new threat that defenses won't be able to contain if his flashes become the norm.
Best Defense: Michigan
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The Wolverines defense hopes to not have as much pressure on them as the last two seasons as quarterback Shea Patterson transferred in. But that doesn't mean it won't continue to be dominant at every opportunity. The defense returned 83 percent of their production from 2017, a unit that allowed just 18.8 points per game.
The returning personnel is what's most promising. While both Wisconsin and Penn State allowed fewer points per game, Wisconsin is returning only 42 percent of their production and Penn State only 53 percent. Wolverines defensive coordinator Don Brown won't have to be as concerned with integrating inexperienced players as those two units.
Rashan Gary and Chase Winovich figure to be the leaders of the defense once again. It'll be tested every few weeks as it travels to Notre Dame, Northwestern, Michigan State and Ohio State. It must continue to hold opponents around the 20 points-per-game mark for this team to reach its ceiling.
Projected Regular-Season Standings
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East Division
1. Ohio State
2. Michigan
3. Michigan State
4. Penn State
5. Indiana
6. Maryland
7. Rutgers
West Division
1. Wisconsin
2. Northwestern
3. Nebraska
4. Purdue
5. Iowa
6. Minnesota
7. Illinois
Projected Conference Championship Matchup: Ohio State vs. Wisconsin
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Is this finally the year when Wisconsin breaks through in the College Football Playoff era? The Badgers have yet to claim the gold since Bret Bielema's departure, but this looks like the school's best roster in years. But once again whoever wins the Big Ten East will be a worthy foe.
Ohio State is once again the betting favorite, according to OddsShark, to win the conference after Meyer's suspension was announced, followed by Wisconsin and Michigan. Both the Buckeyes and Badgers have earned that respect over the last few years, but this is a problematic head-to-head for Wisconsin if it comes to fruition. Ohio State has won six straight and nine of its last 10 against Bucky in large part because of the difference in team speed.
Without the home-field advantage that Camp Randall brings for Wisconsin, it's easier to give Meyer's Buckeyes the benefit in a close decision. Wisconsin has everything needed to unseat the Buckeyes finally but it's imperative that Alex Hornibrook becomes a reliable passer when he's needed most. If he can't force the Buckeyes defense to respect his ability to hit tight windows and stretch the field, running back Jonathan Taylor may see another 41-yard, 2.7-yard-per-carry day like last year's conference title game.
Winner: Ohio State
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
