Northwestern Wildcats vs. Purdue Boilermakers Odds, Analysis, Betting Pick

Northwestern owns a four-game winning streak in its rivalry with Purdue, and that includes a 3-1 run against the spread.

Can the Wildcats continue with those winning ways when they open this season and their 2018 Big Ten campaign against the Boilermakers on Thursday night in West Lafayette?

College football point spread: The Boilermakers opened as 3.5-point favorites, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark. (Line updates and matchup report)

College football betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 29.4-25.4 Wildcats (College football picks on every game)

Why the Northwestern Wildcats can cover the spread

The Wildcats return 14 starters this year from a team that went 10-3 straight up and 9-4 against the spread last year and won a bowl game.

Northwestern also rides an eight-game winning streak into this season, which includes a 7-1 run ATS. Seven starters are back on offense for the Wildcats, led by senior quarterback Clayton Thorson, and four along the offensive line.

And while they lose the program's new all-time leading rusher, Justin Jackson, they think sophomore Jeremy Larkin, who ran for 112 yards in last year's bowl victory, can fill that hole. And seven starters are back on a defense that held Big Ten opponents to 342 yards per game last season.

Also, as mentioned above, Northwestern's beaten Purdue four times in a row, winning those games by an average score of 32-15. Last year the Wildcats beat the Boilers 23-13, covering as six-point favorites.

Why the Purdue Boilermakers can cover the spread

The Boilermakers return 13 starters from a team that went 7-6 SU and 9-4 ATS and won a bowl game last year in their first season under head coach Jeff Brohm. They also ride three-game winning streaks both SU and ATS into this season.

Nine starters are back on offense for Purdue, including a pair of quarterbacks who combined to compile a 27/11 touchdowns/interceptions ratio last year, the entire running back corps and four along the offensive line.

While only four starters are back on a defense that held Big Ten foes to 370 yards per game last year—its best performance in many seasons—it's hoped this unit is turning the corner toward respectability.

Smart betting pick

Northwestern is 27-12 SU and 25-14 ATS with Thorson as the starter at quarterback, and while he suffered a torn knee in last year's bowl victory, he is expected to start this game.

Meanwhile, home-field advantage is often overrated in college football, especially when playing at night on national television. The smart money here plays the Wildcats, and they might not even need the points.

College football betting trends

Northwestern is 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS in its last four games against Purdue.

The total has gone under in eight of Northwestern's last 11 games against Purdue.

Northwestern is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 games on the road.

All college football odds and betting trends according to Bleacher Report's official odds partner, OddsShark. Check out OddsShark on Twitter and Instagram or head to YouTube for more betting picks and analysis on this week's top games. You can also download the free odds tracker app.