SEC Football: Preview and Predictions for the 2018 Season
Another banner year for the SEC ended with another national championship banner for the Alabama Crimson Tide. They knocked off conference foe Georgia in overtime as second-year Bulldogs coach and Nick Saban disciple Kirby Smart came ever so close to knocking off his former teacher.
Instead, UA won yet another title despite failing to make the conference championship game. The Bulldogs knocked off Auburn for the SEC title after the Tigers beat the Tide in the Iron Bowl.
Beyond those three juggernauts, though, the rest of the league struggled.
That mediocrity—or downright awful play—led to a major overhaul in the league.
Six new head coaches will lead their programs in 2018, with Dan Mullen flipping from Mississippi State to Florida, where Joe Moorhead replaced him; Jeremy Pruitt going to Tennessee; Chad Morris heading to Arkansas; Texas A&M landing Jimbo Fisher; and Ole Miss removing Matt Luke's interim tag.
It's a new era for the SEC as it tries to get over its recent, top-heavy ways. The talent level is still exceptional, but there aren't as many household names as you're used to.
Let's take a look at the perennial powerhouse conference and its outlook for this season.
Biggest Stars
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A.J. Brown
You could fill three slides with all the players who could wind up being stars, but Brown would still be at the top. The junior Ole Miss receiver plays in a stacked unit where opposing defenses can't afford to pay him extra attention.
That and a growing rapport with Rebels quarterback Jordan Ta'amu should be factors in a huge season. The 6'1", 230-pound playmaker was a major recruiting victory for former coach Hugh Freeze, who pulled him out of Starkville under the noses of the rival Bulldogs.
All Brown did last year was rack up 1,252 yards and 11 touchdowns. He's big, physical and can put it into another gear when he gets the ball. Brown is one of the biggest studs in the league as well as one of the top pro prospects.
Raekwon Davis
The other player who'll make NFL scouts drool is Davis, a 6'7", 315-pound mega-athlete who looks like he's going to be the next in a long line of remarkable Alabama defensive linemen. He's massive, but he can also get to the quarterback.
The Meridian, Mississippi, product had 69 tackles, including 10 for a loss and 8.5 sacks a season ago as a sophomore. If he stays healthy, this should be his final year in Tuscaloosa, and he'll be a high draft pick if not the top player overall.
He's an incredible athlete for his size and should be the anchor of another strong Tide defense.
Damien Harris
It's easy for the rising senior running back to slip out of the spotlight, even in his own offense. But the best offensive player in the SEC who never gets enough headlines resides in Tuscaloosa.
He's rushed for at least 1,000 yards in each of the past two seasons, averaging more than seven yards per carry both years. He reached the end zone 11 times a season ago and no longer has to split carries with Bo Scarbrough.
There are plenty of stars at running back for the Tide, including uber-talented Najee Harris. But the elder Harris is the guy who helps make that offense tick. He could be primed for a massive season.
Drew Lock
The biggest superstar quarterback in the SEC that you've not heard enough about hails from one of the least discussed programs. Lock could have been a high NFL pick had he left Columbia a year ago.
Instead, he elected to return to the Tigers to try to take them to new heights. The strong-armed rising senior threw for 3,964 yards a season ago, with 44 touchdowns and just 13 interceptions. He has the vast majority of his weapons back, too.
If he meshes well with new offensive coordinator Derek Dooley after Josh Heupel left to be UCF's new head coach, Lock could help Mizzou contend with UGA in the East. It's going to be fun to watch him post Xbox numbers.
Jarrett Stidham
Most of the talk around Alabama water coolers centered on the Crimson Tide quarterback battle between Tua Tagovailoa and Jalen Hurts. But the Tigers from the Plains have the most proven signal-caller in the league.
That would be Stidham, who was steady most of the 2017 season and hopes to move into stardom this year. If he gets the help around him that he needs, the Baylor transfer can take it to another level. He may not have the upside of Tagovailoa or the weapons of Lock, but Stidham is a winner.
He is an ideal player for Gus Malzahn's system, and he's the biggest reason why there are high hopes again at AU.
Devin White
This should be the year of the defender in the SEC, and one of the best around is LSU linebacker Devin White, who registered 133 stops a season ago as the maestro for Dave Aranda's defense.
The 6'1", 248-pound rising junior also added 13.5 tackles for a loss and was all over the field. Sure, he's big and physical, but his interception and three pass deflections proved he isn't a liability in pass coverage, either.
It's an important year for Ed Orgeron on the Bayou, and the Tigers are going to go as far as their defense takes them. If White can duplicate his '17 season or even surpass it, he'll be one of the most discussed players in the league, and there may be a Butkus Award on his mantle.
Greedy Williams
Andraez "Greedy" Williams had an appetite for the football during his true freshman season at LSU, becoming a lockdown corner and looking like the heir to the throne at "DBU."
He finished the season with six interceptions and another 10 pass deflections. A deeper look at his numbers is even more remarkable. He was targeted just 66 times, and those opportunities led to a 25.1 passer rating for opposing quarterbacks, the lowest rating by a long shot in the SEC, according to Pro Football Focus.
The best news for Aranda and Orgeron is they've got Williams at least two more years. It'll be fun to see what he does for an encore.
Top Storylines
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Can anybody unseat the mighty Crimson Tide?
You may think it's wild to leave Alabama quarterback Tua Tagovailoa out of the "Biggest Stars" slide, especially considering he's one of the most talented signal-callers in the country. But it's no guarantee he'll be the man all year, especially with Jalen Hurts at UA, too.
This is the first time Saban has experienced a true controversy between talented quarterbacks, and while it would be a stunner if Tagovailoa isn't the starter, it's going to be worth watching how the battle is handled.
Saban's cupboard is never bare in Tuscaloosa, where the Tide recruit better than anybody else in the country. But there have been some major injuries in the linebacking corps throughout camp, and there are some question marks between UA and a repeat.
It would be unwise to bet against the Tide making it back to the College Football Playoff, but there are several roadblocks they must overcome.
How long will the youth movement take in Athens?
A remarkable class of 31 seniors must be replaced from the national runners-up, who came within a heartbreaking comeback victory by Alabama from winning Georgia's first national championship since 1980.
How do you replace a group that includes Nick Chubb, Sony Michel, Davin Bellamy, Lorenzo Carter and departed first-round pick Roquan Smith, who left after his junior year? It won't be easy, but Kirby Smart has loaded up in recruiting the past two years.
Underclassmen stars such as quarterback Jake Fromm and running back D'Andre Swift will ease the transition, and freshmen such as running back James Cook, cornerback Tyson Campbell, linebackers Quay Walker, Brenton Cox and Channing Tindall, and punter Jake Camarda are ready.
The Dawgs are loaded. But it takes time to adjust in the SEC. Will that be measured in games or months? The answer to that question will determine how much of a threat UGA is to return to the playoffs.
Will Auburn field a good enough offensive line to compete?
The Tigers seem to have enough weapons to compete for the league title again this year, with Stidham back, several capable running backs and receivers, and a defense that will be as strong and deep as any in the SEC.
But what about the offensive line?
After losing four starters, AU must overhaul the group.
AL.com's Tom Green noted recently the five starters are nearly set. That would be Prince Tega Wanogho at left tackle, Marquel Harrell at left guard, Kaleb Kim at center, Mike Horton at right guard and UMass graduate transfer Jack Driscoll at right tackle.
How long until guys like Austin Troxell can provide quality depth? Can the Tigers stay healthy enough up front to develop a continuity? That is the difference in a really good offense being mediocre.
Is the league better after a coaching overhaul?
The league has remained strong recently, thanks largely in part to the constant force of Saban's Alabama and emerging threats like Georgia and Auburn. But the SEC has been top-heavy for a number of years.
That simple fact led to six coaching changes as several programs want to make a major move.
Former Alabama defensive coordinator Jeremy Pruitt will try to wash the stink from the Butch Jones era off Tennessee's program.
Florida will also try to reinvigorate its former powerhouse with Dan Mullen, who returns to Gainesville after a successful tenure at Mississippi State following a strong career as Urban Meyer's offensive coordinator with the Gators.
Texas A&M made the biggest financial commitment, throwing barrels of money at Florida State's Jimbo Fisher to lure him to College Station. LSU is facing a make-or-break season for Ed Orgeron or it will be slipping, too. South Carolina's Will Muschamp could be on the cusp of leading the Gamecocks to contend with Georgia.
There are a lot of storylines to watch from a coaching standpoint.
The Favorites
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Alabama Crimson Tide
This slide looks familiar to the one from 2017, but there's no reason to believe last year's horses will take a major step backward this year. That starts with Saban's Tide, who a lot of publications believe will be right up there at the top again.
All those No. 1 recruiting classes get developed into elite pro prospects, and the selfless attitude displayed throughout the program equals championships in bulk. It's an enviable machine that is the toast of the sport right now, whether you love it or hate it.
Saban knows what we think; that he can just pull star players from his, um, nether regions whenever there are injuries. But the truth is UA has yet another big group of players the NFL wants, led by a talented group of running backs, linebackers and defensive linemen.
Youth must develop, but it could be another championship year for the Tide if it does.
Auburn Tigers
Just because everybody is talking about Alabama doesn't mean Auburn is down. Despite the offensive line concerns, there are many bright spots up and down the Tigers roster.
Defensively, coordinator Kevin Steele's unit is loaded.
The D-line will miss Jeffrey Holland, but there are plenty of disruptive playmakers up front to make up for his absence. Linebacker Deshaun Davis is the undisputed emotional leader of the group, and the secondary is rife with guys who can turn games around, too. Look for that side of the ball to be stout.
If Stidham gets protection, he could take a major step forward from a '17 season that saw him throw for 3,158 yards and complete 66 percent of his passes. While you may have questions about Kam Martin, JaTarvious Whitlow and other runners, don't. AU has trotted out a 1,000-yard rusher in nine straight years.
There is enough there to make a run at an SEC title. But everything needs to fall just right.
Georgia Bulldogs
If you're going to apply the logic that Alabama continues to reload despite losing tons of pro talent, you're going to have to start saying the same for Smart.
You can't recruit as well as UGA has and have it not show up in the win column.
Will the Bulldogs contend for the title again this year? No. There will be a hiccup game in there that will keep them from a magical repeat performance, but Smart's team is still the best in the SEC East with Tennessee and Florida rebuilding. South Carolina and Missouri will be formidable, but UGA is better.
Tripping to Atlanta may begin to look like an annual occurrence, and the recruiting train isn't slowing in Athens. It's going to be interesting to see how Smart's program looks post-Mark Richt players.
Many think the talent will be upgraded, and if the development matches, a juggernaut contender to UA and AU will follow.
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The Challengers
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Mississippi State Bulldogs
If there's any team that could break through into the upper echelon with the Big Three mentioned on the previous slide, it's the other set of Bulldogs.
Dan Mullen left Starkville with a bunch of really good players, led by dual-threat quarterback Nick Fitzgerald. The marriage between him and new head coach Joe Moorhead, who was James Franklin's offensive coordinator at Penn State, looks like it could produce fruitful results. Running back Aeris Williams is good, too.
On defense, MSU has Jeffery Simmons and Montez Sweat to lead a unit that could quietly be one of the top three or four in the league. The Bulldogs were close to knocking off the Tide a year ago, and they could repeat the feat again.
Nobody is talking about MSU because of Moorhead's first season. But they should be.
LSU Tigers
There are few defensive questions in the Bayou, where Dave Aranda is one of the top coordinators in the country and has plenty of talent to work with. The other side of the ball—and the head coaching decisions—is another story.
LSU can afford to hire an elite coach, so Ed Orgeron needs to prove he belongs at the helm, and it will go a long way toward proving that if new coordinator Steve Ensminger can perform where Matt Canada could not a year ago.
Talented Ohio State transfer Joe Burrow beat out Myles Brennan for the starting quarterback job, according to Sports Illustrated's Ross Dellenger. He has the ability to elevate that position to heights not seen under Orgeron yet, but he's still an unknown.
There also isn't a proven running back, which is a new development after several years of Leonard Fournette and Derrius Guice. The Tigers need playmakers on that side of the ball. If they find them, they'll make noise in the West.
South Carolina Gamecocks
Year three of the Will Muschamp era in Columbia is shaping up to be exciting. With Jake Bentley looking like a budding quarterback star and offensive stars like Deebo Samuel returning, the Gamecocks could be formidable, especially in an East where Georgia must prove it can reload.
There aren't a bunch of All-SEC-caliber returners on defense, but Muschamp likes his players on that side of the ball, according to Pete Iacobelli of the Associated Press, even though a defensive-minded coach is never completely pleased with his specialty. The Gamecocks need to be better than average, as they were a year ago, to take a leap forward.
Defensive end DJ Wonnum is a guy who could break through in 2018, and if that unit can be opportunistic, the Gamecocks may just surprise people this season. A Sept. 8 game against the Bulldogs in Columbia will be massive.
Win that game, and the East is there for the taking.
Texas A&M Aggies
Jimbo Fisher's first season in College Station is much-anticipated, and it bears watching how his pro-style offense looks with a dual-threat quarterback at the helm. According to 247Sports' Brian Perroni, Kellen Mond "is expected to be the starter" for the season opener.
Defensively, A&M lured Notre Dame coordinator Mike Elko after striking out on buying Aranda from division-rival LSU, and he comes to the Aggies to try to build back what John Chavis struggled to solidify during the Kevin Sumlin era.
It's going to be a grueling early-season stretch for A&M, as it plays Clemson, Alabama and an upstart South Carolina program all before the middle of October. If the Aggies can win one of those games, a nine-win campaign is not out of the question.
Best Rivalry Matchup: Iron Bowl
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If this wasn't already the best rivalry in the nation (it is), the past couple of seasons have elevated it to a near fever pitch. It's always a major deal in Alabama, but when it's a national spectacle with championship implications, the stakes go up even more.
We're talking about the Iron Bowl, of course. When Auburn and Alabama get together the final weekend of the college football regular season, it often has an immediate impact on the next week's SEC Championship Game.
That was the case last year when the Tigers upset the Crimson Tide 26-14 on the Plains to vault over their heated, hated rival and make it to the conference championship game. That's where the good vibes ended for AU, though, who lost to Georgia in Atlanta and then to Central Florida to end the year.
Alabama and Auburn are expected to battle for the top of the SEC West again this year, though neither is as big of a slam dunk as it was a season ago. Still, it would be unwise to rule Alabama out of the national championship race. That normally means Auburn is primed to be in position to pick off the Tide.
It's that kind of rivalry.
Alabama's offense should be the stoutest, most balanced in the league, and Auburn's defense is projected to be a little better than the Tide's. Both sides of the ball have reasons for optimism.
November 24 in Tuscaloosa should be wild and a blast again. Don't be surprised if a championship game berth and a potential playoff spot are on the line.
Coaches on the Hot Seat
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Derek Mason, Vanderbilt
An 18-31 record isn't going to win Mason a lot of brownie points in Nashville, especially considering he followed James Franklin, who experienced unprecedented success with the Commodores before bolting for Happy Valley.
But VU loves the fact that he's beaten Tennessee in consecutive seasons. Yes, the Vols have been down, and the futility against the 'Dores is one of the many reasons why Butch Jones is no longer running the sideline, but wins are wins.
Mason needs more of them to secure a sixth season. Last year's eighth-ranked defense in the SEC needs to continue to improve to carry the team. But quarterback Kyle Shurmur looks like he's ready to post big numbers on the other side of the ball.
He'll need to with running back Ralph Webb gone. If Mason can't find playmakers to get VU to a bowl game, he may be on his way out, too.
Barry Odom, Missouri
Last year appears to be a breakout season, at least on the surface, for Mizzou. After starting the year 1-5, the Tigers reeled off six consecutive wins where they lit up the scoreboard behind the strong arm of Drew Lock.
A 33-16 loss to Texas in the Texas Bowl ended the year on a down note, but there are still high hopes in Columbia. Though offensive coordinator Josh Huepel is now the head coach at Central Florida, Odom hired former Tennessee head coach Derek Dooley to replace him.
Lock is back, so his relationship with Dooley is key. If that winds up being a great hire and Mizzou wins eight or nine games, Odom will get a big extension. If the Tigers barely get bowl-eligible again, they face life without Lock and plenty of questions in 2019.
Will that spell the end for Odom? Anything short of a disastrous season, and Odom is safe. But he'll be on tenuous footing for the future.
Ed Orgeron, LSU
The hottest seat besides Mason's belongs to Coach O in the Bayou. Yes, he's entering just his second full season as the Tigers head coach after going 6-2 in replacing Les Miles in 2016. But they don't love 9-4 seasons in Baton Rouge.
It makes that tally worse that the four losses included an embarrassing home setback to Troy. There was also the messy divorce with offensive coordinator Matt Canada and some recruiting swings-and-misses, like losing elite defensive back Patrick Surtain Jr. to Alabama.
When you consider his struggles as the coach of Ole Miss, there are reasons for concern.
None of that matters if the Tigers can live up to expectations on the field. Orgeron recruits fine, and that will only improve if LSU responds in 2018. With a quarterback competition looming and the need for offensive playmakers to emerge, questions abound.
The answers may keep Orgeron's job hanging in the balance.
Gus Malzahn, Auburn
How can Malzahn's Auburn Tigers be one of the three top teams in the SEC with a chance to win the title and he still be on this list?
When you've got Alabama next door, it's possible for him to wind up the victim of high expectations.
If Auburn performs the way it should and the Tigers compete with Alabama for the West, he'll be fine. But the Tigers followed up last year's resounding Iron Bowl win with back-to-back blunders. Malzahn chose to stay in town over going to Arkansas a year ago and was awarded a huge contract.
The only way he would lose his job is if Auburn lays an egg and wins, say, seven games in 2018. It's unlikely, but if it happens, there will be plenty of grumbles on the Plains. He seems safe at the moment.
Best Offense: Alabama
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Alabama is loaded once again.
But this year, the defense won't make the early-season headlines. Instead, the offense has playmakers from top to bottom. That's one reason why everybody is curious to see how the defending national champions handle their quarterback controversy.
Most fans crave the tantalizing arm of Tua Tagovailoa over Jalen Hurts, who has struggled to consistently excel in the vertical passing game. But either can lead the Tide to titles.
At running back, Damien Harris is one of the most underrated producers in the country, capable of leading the team on clock-consuming drives or breaking big plays. He stays fresh thanks to depth like Najee Harris and Joshua Jacobs, both of whom would start for most teams in the country.
A young, exciting receiving corps will provide ample targets for Tagovailoa or Hurts, and the offensive line should be the best in the conference, if not the nation.
"Their offense could be as explosive as it's ever been in the Saban era," an anonymous coach recently told SportsIllustrated.com.
That's the potency new coordinator Mike Locksley inherited from Brian Daboll. With quarterbacks coach Dan Enos and his play-calling experience on staff too, the Tide should be stout. The defense will come around because it always does, but this will be a team that shines because of its offense.
It's title-caliber yet again.
Best Defense: Auburn
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When Washington coach Chris Petersen complimented Auburn this week prior to his team's season opener against the Tigers, he did so in the most backhanded way imaginable.
"I look at Auburn on defense and it seems very Alabama-ish to me," the Huskies coach told reporters.
It's a strong endorsement, but Tigers fans everywhere probably will have to choke back the bile.
Since Alabama has to replace a lot of stars on defense and lost a couple more to injury, Auburn coordinator Kevin Steele's unit looks primed to be the best in the West, if not the conference. If the Tigers can find some elite playmakers at linebacker, they may be one of the two or three best defenses in the nation.
Auburn is anchored by quality players like Derrick Brown, Dontavius Russell and Marlon Davidson on the defensive front, and even though they'll miss Jeffrey Holland, stars and depth abound.
Linebacker Deshaun Davis is the defensive leader. While he needs some help on the second level, the Tigers have speed to burn at that spot. The secondary lost three players who helped make that group a strength a year ago but still boasts playmakers like Jamel Dean and Javaris Davis.
We'll find out quickly how high the ceiling is for the Tigers on defense as they try to slow down Washington and the senior duo of quarterback Jake Browning and running back Myles Gaskin in the season's first game. If they can win that one and make the Huskies look pedestrian, confidence will surge.
Plenty of roadblocks await in the SEC, but Auburn could be even better on that side of the ball than it was a year ago. The Tigers probably want to make amends for the year-end collapse that lent a sour taste to an otherwise strong season.
Projected Regular-Season Standings
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East Division
1. Georgia Bulldogs
2. South Carolina Gamecocks
3. Missouri Tigers
4. Tennessee Volunteers
5. Florida Gators
6. Kentucky Wildcats
7. Vanderbilt Commodores
West Division
1. Alabama Crimson Tide
2. Auburn Tigers
3. Mississippi State Bulldogs
4. Texas A&M Aggies
5. LSU Tigers
6. Ole Miss Rebels
7. Arkansas Razorbacks
Projected Conference Championship Matchup: Alabama vs. Georgia
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Last year's national championship game was one to remember as Alabama erased a 13-0 halftime hole to come back and beat the Bulldogs 26-23 in overtime. The iconic decider was Tua Tagovailoa's 41-yard scoring strike to DeVonta Smith for the walk-off win.
It came immediately after a 16-yard loss on a sack.
Such ups and downs could be common if Tagovailoa wins Alabama's starting quarterback job in 2018.
The matchup between these two powerhouse programs could follow the same pattern.
Nick Saban is etching his name in college football's history books as perhaps the greatest coach the sport has ever known. He wins in living rooms when he's recruiting the nation's top high schoolers, and he turns them into the best college players. That's why he has the top college program.
Georgia's Kirby Smart must have taken copious notes during his time in Tuscaloosa as Alabama's defensive coordinator. In two years in Athens, he's turned his alma mater around, kicking up Mark Richt's program a notch into a championship contender. He also seized Saban's recruiting crown in the 2018 class.
Can he do the same when it comes to the title?
Last year, Smart's Dawgs won the conference championship but couldn't unseat Alabama, which won another national title after Auburn made sure the Tide didn't get a chance to play in Atlanta. That won't happen in '18. Alabama is too good on offense to be shut out of a conference championship two years in a row.
Georgia won't be as good as it was in '17, but all that youth will develop and the Bulldogs will prove they're still the top team in the East. It won't be good enough to win consecutive conference championships, though.
Winner: Alabama Crimson Tide
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
