ACC Football: Preview and Predictions for 2018 Season
The Clemson Tigers have won college football's Atlantic Coast Conference (ACC) in each of the last three years, compiling an overall league record of 25-2 (including conference championship game) during that time.
Could Miami, Florida State or Virginia Tech put an end to that dynastic run in 2018, or are Dabo Swinney and Co. destined for a fourth consecutive appearance in the College Football Playoff?
In this preview of the 2018 ACC season, we'll talk favorites, challengers, biggest stars, top storylines and coaches who enter the season sitting uncomfortably on the hot seat. There will also be predictions for best offense, best defense and a full rundown of the conference standings.
If you've been paying any attention to preseason rankings and national championship odds, though, it shouldn't come as a surprise that we're expecting a lot of orange in the conference championship game.
Biggest Stars
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AJ Dillon, RB, Boston College
It's no coincidence that Boston College's season turned around when it did. During its 2-4 start, true freshman AJ Dillon was averaging 55.5 rushing yards per game and a paltry 3.7 yards per carry. For the 5-2 finish, though, he exploded for 179.4 yards per game at 6.0 yards per tote with 12 touchdowns. If that guy shows up for a full season, the Eagles are going to be a problem.
Cam Akers, RB, Florida State
Cam Akers also rushed for more than 1,000 yards as a true freshman, keeping Florida State's down year from turning into an all-out disaster. But while Dillon's debut year was a surprise for many, Akers was the No. 3 overall recruit in last year's class, per 247Sports. If anything, the surprise is that he only averaged 5.3 yards per carry. Akers is one of the few obvious candidates for preseason offensive player of the year in the ACC.
Jaquan Johnson, S, Miami
Miami's defense was the viral sensation of the 2017 season, and Jaquan Johnson was the biggest star of the turnover chain brigade. He was the Hurricanes' sole leader in tackles (96) and forced fumbles (three). He also tied for the team lead in interceptions (four) and fumbles recovered (two). The safety's decision to return for his senior year is a good reason to buy stock in another Miami trip to the ACC championship.
Ryan Finley, QB, North Carolina State
He might be the least mobile quarterback in the entire conference, but Ryan Finley is the most established passer in the ACC, throwing for more than 6,500 yards and 35 touchdowns over the past two seasons. We'll see how he fares without Jaylen Samuels around to reprise his role as the ultra-versatile tight end, but Finley is right there with Akers on the short list of ACC OPOY candidates.
Clemson's Defensive Line
We'll have more to say about this bunch when we get to discussing the best defense in the ACC, but just know that Austin Bryant, Clelin Ferrell, Dexter Lawrence and Christian Wilkins are going to collectively cause a lot of heartburn for opposing coaches and offensive lines. Forced to choose just one as the star, the safest bet is probably Ferrell, as he led the Tigers in both tackles for loss (18) and sacks (9.5) last season.
Top Storylines
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Kelly Bryant or Trevor Lawrence?
The debate has been raging for eight months, and it isn't going to end any time soon.
Kelly Bryant is the dual-threat senior who just led his squad to the College Football Playoff. Trevor Lawrence is the pocket-passing freshman who broke so many high school records that scouts ran out of superlatives with which to praise him. They're arguably two of the 10 best quarterbacks currently on college football rosters. But only one can start for Clemson.
And no matter which one Dabo Swinney chooses as his guy, there will be a faction of the fanbase (and the pot-stirring national media) that responds to every little mistake by clamoring for the overqualified backup. It won't matter if it's Week 1 or the national championship game, either. Let's all be sure to thank Alabama and Tua Tagovailoa for that new normal.
Life After Lamar Jackson?
Without question, the toughest ACC team to project is Louisville. Lamar Jackson was a one-man spectacle who threw and rushed for a combined total of 96 touchdowns over the last two seasons. Not only is he gone, but the Cardinals also lost their top two conventional running backs, Reggie Bonnafon and Malik Williams.
There's a ton of returning talent in the receiving corps, but what will this offense look like with Jawon Pass under center and Dae Williams in the backfield behind him? The season opener against Alabama (in Orlando, Florida) could get all sorts of ugly. But if the Cardinals figure things out in the subsequent games against Indiana State and Western Kentucky, they could be a legitimate factor in the Atlantic Division.
The League's New Head Coach
College football's annual coaching carousel didn't wreak havoc on the ACC as it did some conferences. In fact, 13 of the 14 head coaches remain unchanged. The exception is a big one, though, as Willie Taggart has been tasked with rebuilding what Jimbo Fisher left behind.
Florida State has a tough schedule—particularly in the second half of the season—and it has to replace a lot of talent on defense. Considering Taggart's teams have ranked 50th or worse in points allowed per game in seven of his eight seasons as a head coach, that might be a problem.
How Many Bowl Games?
There's not a single team in this conference that you look at on paper and immediately think, "Oh yeah, they're going to be bad." Most leagues have at least one or two such teams, but not the ACC. Moreover, with the exception of Pittsburgh—which might have the toughest nonconference schedule in the entire country—every team in the ACC should win at least three of its four nonconference games.
Even though Clemson and Miami may well both go 8-0 in league play, it's not unreasonable to think 12 or even 13 ACC teams win at least six games to become bowl-eligible. We're only projecting 10, but we're also projecting all 14 teams to win at least four games.
The Favorites
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Clemson Tigers
Clemson has won at least 10 games in each of the last seven seasons. Outside of Alabama, this has been the most consistently great program of the 2010s.
And yet, 2018 might be the best version of the Tigers to date.
We'll see what happens with the whole QB debate, but let's not pretend Dabo Swinney is stuck between a rock and a hard place there; it's more like he's torn before choosing pie or ice cream for dessert. Both are excellent options, and a hearty helping of each just might be the right choice.
Despite losing Deon Cain and Ray-Ray McCloud, the offense is overflowing with playmaking talent. Sophomore WR Tee Higgins should be one of the nation's biggest breakout sensations, and sophomore RB Travis Etienne might not be far behind him. The Tigers also still have Tavien Feaster and Adam Choice in the backfield, freshmen Justyn Ross and Derion Kendrick as potential instant-impact receivers and, of course, Hunter Renfrow in the slot.
But the offense is the weaker of the two units here, as Clemson gets back 15 of the 18 leading tacklers from the defense that ranked second in the nation at just 13.6 points allowed per game last year. Replacing Dorian O'Daniel at linebacker could be a challenge, but that's just about the only hurdle keeping the Tigers from having the best defense in the country.
Miami Hurricanes
Like Clemson, Miami is loaded with familiar faces in its quest for a return trip to the ACC championship game.
On defense, seven of last year's eight leading tacklers are back, including safety Jaquan Johnson and linebacker Shaquille Quarterman. The 'Canes did lose a lot of key linemen and second-tier defenders, but the vast majority of turnover chain recipients are still part of "The U."
On offense, 5-star RB Lorenzo Lingard will join Travis Homer in what should be an elite backfield. WR Jeff Thomas is right up there with Higgins on everyone's list of breakout candidates, and the return of a healthy Ahmmon Richards gives the 'Canes even more of an ever-present threat of a deep strike.
The $64,000 question is: Can Malik Rosier rebound from his rough finish in 2017 to lead this team?
No one was ever confusing Rosier for Andrew Luck or Jameis Winston, but he was a more-than-adequate quarterback during Miami's 10-0 start. He averaged 262.0 passing yards per game with 23 touchdowns against nine interceptions. He only completed 56.4 percent of his pass attempts, but Miami would have killed for that type of accuracy down the stretch.
In the season-ending three-game losing streak, Rosier was a 44.9 percent passer with more interceptions (five) than touchdowns (three) and just 166.7 yards per game. Along with its quarterback, the entire offense went in the toilet.
If he returns to form, though, Miami will make a strong push for a spot in the College Football Playoff.
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The Challengers
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Florida State Seminoles
Between a coaching change, significant roster turnover on defense and a challenging schedule, there's reason to believe Florida State could be headed for a second consecutive disappointing campaign. At the same time, this is clearly one of the three most talented rosters in the conference, and it's a program that has averaged 11.0 wins over the last six years.
FSU's home opener against Virginia Tech should let us know right away whether Clemson will have a legitimate challenger in the Atlantic Division.
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
The triple-option offense always makes Georgia Tech the big wild card in this conference. And this year, the Yellow Jackets bring back two of the ACC's top rushers from last season: KirVonte Benson and TaQuon Marshall.
They went 5-6 last season and failed to become bowl-eligible for the second time in three years, but they were better than that record. They lost by one to Tennessee, by one to Miami and by four to Virginia, despite leading in the final 90 seconds of all three games. With a little better late-game luck this year, they could be a factor.
North Carolina State Wolfpack
Even if you don't want to buy the roster as a contender, the schedule should put North Carolina State in the conversation.
They'll almost certainly lose the road game against Clemson, but the Wolfpack get Florida State and Boston College at home. Moreover, instead of Miami, Virginia Tech or Georgia Tech, their interdivisional games are against North Carolina and Virginia—arguably the two worst teams in the entire conference.
Even without Bradley Chubb, Nyheim Hines and Jaylen Samuels, it's possible this team could get to 10 or 11 wins.
Virginia Tech Hokies
The big question for Virginia Tech is defense. The Hokies were incredibly stingy last year, allowing just 14.8 points per game while recording three shutouts. But most of that defense is gone, resulting in a depleted secondary and a linebacker corps with almost no experience whatsoever.
However, if Josh Jackson can make a sophomore-year leap at quarterback to make Virginia Tech a better-than-average offense, that might be enough to contend for the ACC Coastal Division crown. As with Florida State, the Week 1 battle will determine the likelihood of that outcome. VT doesn't play Clemson and it gets both Miami and Georgia Tech at home, meaning the road game against the Seminoles might be their biggest test of the entire season.
Best Rivalry Matchup
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The Game: Clemson at Florida State (Oct. 27)
Historically speaking, the biggest rivalry is Miami and Florida State. Even though they have only been playing in the same league since 2004, the Hurricanes and Seminoles have been battling each other on an annual basis for a half-century. And when they square off on October 6, it could have massive ramifications, both in the ACC and in the College Football Playoff debate.
In recent years, though, Clemson versus Florida State has been the ACC's most important regular-season game. Clemson beat Florida State in 2009, 2011, 2015, 2016 and 2017. The 'Noles beat the Tigers in 2010, 2012, 2013 and 2014. And it's hardly a coincidence that those are the last nine winners of the Atlantic Division.
One of these two teams has also won the entire ACC in each of the last seven years.
So, yeah, it's kind of a big deal.
If Clemson is going to lose a conference game this season, this is the most likely spot, by far. ESPN's FPI metrics give the Tigers at least an 84.5 percent chance of winning each other ACC game on the schedule, but they are only at 76.3 percent in this one.
And those odds don't properly take into consideration the recent history here. Florida State has won four of its last five home games in this rivalry, and it would have a five-game home winning streak if not for Deshaun Watson's late heroics for the national-championship bound Clemson in 2016. Even though the Tigers should win this game in Tallahassee, it's far from a given.
The biggest reason to buy Clemson in this game is the lopsided battle between its defensive line and Florida State's offensive line. The Tigers have averaged 3.28 sacks per game over the last two seasons, while the Seminoles have allowed 2.62. And in the two head-to-head games, Clemson's pass-rushers brought down FSU quarterbacks 11 times.
Prediction: Clemson 28, Florida State 17
Head Coaches on the Hot Seat
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Larry Fedora, North Carolina
In November 2016, Larry Fedora was a respectable 39-22 in his tenure with North Carolina. The Tar Heels were ranked 15th in the AP poll and appeared well on their way to a second consecutive season with double-digit wins—this after they had not won more than eight games in any season between 1998-2014. At the time, the seven-year extension he signed late in 2015 was looking great.
Then the Heels lost three of their final four games in 2016 and proceeded to go 3-9 the following year. Worse yet for Fedora's job security, at ACC media days this summer, he went on a nonsensical tangent about there being no link between football and CTE, adding that this attack against football is going to ruin the country. A couple weeks after that, 13 of his players were suspended for up to four games for selling sneakers.
Were it just one of those three things, it wouldn't be a problem. The cumulative effect, however, puts Fedora on possibly the hottest seat in the country.
Dino Babers, Syracuse
If a breakout year was going to happen for Syracuse, it should've been 2017. The Orange were getting back all 11 primary starters on defense, and in Eric Dungey, Ervin Philips and Steve Ishmael, they had the potential for an outstanding passing attack.
But despite a colossal upset of Clemson, Syracuse developed a nasty habit of losing close ones. After nine games, the Orange were 4-5, even though they hadn't lost a single game by a double-digit margin. They seemed to just throw in the towel at that point, losing the next three games by a combined margin of 95 points.
It's not easy to win in the ACC at a program that has signed just two 4-star recruits and no 5-star guys in the last four recruiting classes. One must seize opportunity when it presents itself. Dino Babers did not. And a third consecutive season with four or fewer wins would likely be his last.
Pat Narduzzi, Pittsburgh
As far as current winning percentage is concerned, Pat Narduzzi (55.3) is doing better than Paul Chryst did in his three seasons with Pittsburgh (50.0) and only a bit worse than Dave Wannstedt's six-year run (57.5).
But 2017 was Pittsburgh's first bowl-less season since 2007, and there's a non-zero chance this season spirals out of control. After the season opener against Albany, ESPN's FPI projections don't give the Panthers so much as a 59 percent chance of winning a game. (Compare that to Clemson, which has at least a 75 percent chance of winning each game.)
Given the difficulty of the schedule, Narduzzi would probably be given a mulligan for another 5-7 season. But something like a 3-9 record punctuated by a blowout loss at Miami in the season finale would probably be enough of an embarrassment to bring out the ax.
Best Offense: North Carolina State
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Tough call on this one, since the ACC's best offenses from last season lost so much.
Louisville led the league in yards per play (7.39) by a wide margin, but Lamar Jackson and two key running backs are gone. Wake Forest (6.29) ranked second in the category and retained most of its rushing and receiving options, however, the graduation of dual-threat QB (and four-year starter) John Wolford leaves the Demon Deacons with a large question mark.
Miami may well be the correct answer, with WR Ahmmon Richards returning from a series of injuries that limited him in 2017 and WR Jeff Thomas a popular breakout candidate. But the 'Canes lost their top two pass-catchers in Braxton Berrios and Chris Herndon IV, and the offensive line is probably the team's biggest weakness.
Thus, the pick is North Carolina State, even though the Wolfpack lost two huge contributors in their own right—Nyheim Hines and Jaylen Samuels. That duo accounted for a combined 2,265 total yards from scrimmage, as well as 28 touchdowns.
But the cupboards are far from barren in Raleigh.
Senior QB Ryan Finley is in pursuit of a third consecutive season with at least 3,000 passing yards, and he has three solid targets in Kelvin Harmon, Jakobi Meyers and Stephen Louis.
At 1,017 yards last year, Harmon is the top returning receiver in the ACC. Meyers is also top five on that list with 63 receptions for 727 yards last year. And Louis was no slouch with 583 yards in 10 games. This should be one of the better passing attacks in the country.
The unknown is at running back, where the Wolfpack need to replace a 1,100-yard rusher for a second consecutive year. Hines (1,113 yards in 2017) stepped up in a major way after Matt Dayes graduated (1,166 yards in 2016). If senior Reggie Gallaspy II or freshman Ricky Person can follow suit, NC State should have the best offense in the ACC.
Best Defense: Clemson
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Two ACC teams held opponents below 20 points per game last season: Clemson (13.6) and Virginia Tech (14.8). But while the Hokies' elite defense was gutted by departures this offseason, the Tigers only lost three players worth mentioning: LB Dorian O'Daniel, CB Ryan Carter and S Van Smith.
As a result, not only is Clemson the obvious pick for the best defense in the ACC, but it's also on the short list of candidates to lead the nation in scoring defense. The Tigers were already No. 2 in that category this past season, trailing only Alabama (11.9)—which lost more than its fair share of starters, especially in the secondary.
Thanks to an entirely intact defensive line, Clemson is also the no-brainer pick to lead the nation in sacks. They ranked third in 2016 and tied with USC for the national lead last year.
The real question is: Can Clelin Ferrell, Austin Bryant and Co. top Stanford's mark of 57 sacks in 2012? That's how much potential for greatness this defensive line has. Even if one of the starters suffers an injury, Dabo Swinney also signed two of the best D-linemen in this year's recruiting class: Xavier Thomas and KJ Henry. It's quite the embarrassment of riches.
In the secondary, Clemson has ranked no worse than 17th nationally in passing yards allowed per game in any of the past five seasons. The Tigers have also ranked in the top 11 in opposing QB rating for four straight years.
Despite losing two starters from last year's defensive backfield, defensive coordinator Brent Venables has such a good system in place that there's no good reason to expect a decline in dominance.
Projected Standings
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Atlantic Division
1. Clemson (12-0, 8-0 in ACC)
2. Florida State (9-3, 6-2 in ACC)
3. North Carolina State (9-3, 6-2 in ACC)
4. Boston College (7-5, 3-5 in ACC)
5. Louisville (6-6, 3-5 in ACC)
6. Wake Forest (5-7, 2-6 in ACC)
7. Syracuse (4-8, 1-7 in ACC)
Coastal Division
1. Miami (11-1, 8-0 in ACC)
2. Virginia Tech (10-2, 6-2 in ACC)
3. Georgia Tech (7-5, 4-4 in ACC)
4. Pittsburgh (6-6, 4-4 in ACC)
5. Duke (6-6, 3-5 in ACC)
6. North Carolina (4-8, 1-7 in ACC)
7. Virginia (4-8, 1-7 in ACC)
Projected Conference Championship Matchup
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The Game: Clemson (12-0) vs. Miami (11-1)
Predicting a repeat of last year's championship pairing probably seems like the boring, safe option.
ACC history would suggest it's actually a bold proclamation, though, as the last (and only) time the same two teams met in the championship in consecutive years, it was Boston College and Virginia Tech in 2007-08. And both the Eagles and Hokies went 5-3 in league play in 2008, needing head-to-head tiebreakers against divisional foes to get back there.
If the Tigers and Hurricanes were to steamroll their way to another showdown, it would be a first for the ACC.
Each of these College Football Playoff contenders has one major hurdle it needs to clear to set up the rematch. For Clemson, it's the aforementioned road game against Florida State in late October. For Miami, it's the road game against Virginia Tech on the next-to-last Saturday of the regular season. If the Tigers and Hurricanes win those games, it's almost impossible to imagine anyone else winning one of the divisions.
Here's hoping the second installment of this game would be more entertaining than the first. Clemson annihilated Miami by a score of 38-3. It wasn't until their final possession that the Hurricanes had a drive that A) lasted longer than six plays, B) advanced the ball more than 26 yards or C) resulted in points. It was downright ugly.
We're picking Clemson to win again, but Miami will at least put up a fight. If the Hurricanes manage to score multiple touchdowns against this defense, they might be the only ones to do so prior to the playoff.
Prediction: Clemson 24, Miami 13
Kerry Miller covers college football and men's college basketball for Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter, @kerrancejames.
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