Biggest College Football X-Factors Who Can Make or Break Their Team
The Washington Huskies made it to the College Football Playoff two years ago, and they could get back there this season if Aaron Fuller emerges as an X-factor in the receiving game.
Alabama, Clemson, Ohio State and Georgia have been well-established as the preseason favorites to reach the CFP. Those teams don't need X-factors to become the best in the country. They just need to avoid injury and live up to that potential better than Florida State and USC did last year.
However, there are more than a dozen teams just on the other side of that cut line who could vie for a national championship if just one breakout candidate lives up to his potential.
It's from that collection of teams that we've selected CFB's biggest X-factors and listed them in alphabetical order by last name.
Please note this is not intended to capture every team with a decent shot at reaching college football's final four. Of particular note, Auburn, Miami and Oklahoma do not appear on the list, even though all three could open the season in the AP Top 10. The teams making the cut simply have roster situations with clearer opportunities for X-factors to thrive.
Tarik Black, WR, Michigan
1 of 8
Breakout Potential
Tarik Black had a strong 2017 spring as an early enrollee, and that carried over into the first three games of the regular season.
In the opener against Florida, the true freshman wideout had a 46-yard touchdown and another catch that went for 37 yards. He made nine receptions over the course of the following two games and appeared to be Michigan's No. 1 receiver heading into Big Ten play. At the time, he was leading all Wolverines in both receptions and yards.
However, a fractured foot suffered in Week 3 resulted in season-ending surgery, so we only caught a brief glimpse of what he could be.
The good news for Black is that no one else stepped up in his absence. He was on pace for 48 receptions and 646 receiving yards at the time of his injury, but nobody finished the season better than 31 or 307, respectively.
Donovan Peoples-Jones might be the bigger breakout sensation as a sophomore—he was the higher-rated recruit and was able to play all 13 games—but it's not like Black got buried on the depth chart. In fact, he's probably still their No. 1 option now that he's healthy again.
Biggest Question Mark
What if he's unable to sync up with new QB Shea Patterson? Wilton Speight clearly liked throwing in Black's direction, and you would think Patterson would also enjoy looking for this 6'3" receiver with good hands. But you just never know. Peoples-Jones, Grant Perry, Sean McKeon and Zach Gentry could all get more targets than Black, especially if he gets off to a slow start.
2018 Projection: 57 receptions, 871 yards, nine touchdowns
Miles Boykin, WR, Notre Dame
2 of 8
Breakout Potential
Last year, Notre Dame was all about the run game. Josh Adams was a strong candidate for the Heisman before suffering an injury in early November. Six different players averaged at least 5.3 yards per carry while rushing at least 38 times, thanks in large part to left tackle Mike McGlinchey and left guard Quenton Nelson opening up huge rushing lanes on a regular basis.
But Adams, McGlinchey and Nelson are all gone, which should mean a return to a more pass-heavy offense. Although, with Equanimeous St. Brown, Kevin Stepherson and Durham Smythe no longer on the roster after combining for 67 receptions, 1,118 yards and 10 touchdowns last year, we'll see which receivers actually emerge as playmakers.
Chase Claypool (29 receptions, 402 yards, 2 TDs) looks like the best bet to become the No. 1 option for the Fighting Irish, but don't bet against Miles Boykin. The 6'4" receiver only made 12 catches last season, but he was the star of the Citrus Bowl with a career-high 102 yards, thanks in the large part to the game-winning 55-yard touchdown catch.
Even if he doesn't become the top target, Boykin should feature prominently in the offense. He's a big-play threat, and his size will make him an asset.
Biggest Question Mark
Who wins the QB job? It was Ian Book who connected with Boykin in the bowl game, but Brandon Wimbush was the starter who kind of ignored Boykin for most of last season. Maybe it'll be a different story now that he's higher up on the depth chart, but poor QB-WR chemistry would be a quick way to derail what could be a great year.
2018 Projection: 41 receptions, 620 yards, four touchdowns
JT Daniels, QB, USC
3 of 8
Breakout Potential
JT Daniels wasn't quite the highest rated quarterback in this year's recruiting class, but among all true freshman QBs, he has arguably the best odds of both starting and thriving in 2018.
And as was the case for Duke's Marvin Bagley III on the hardwood last year, get ready for announcers and tweeters to repeatedly remind you that Daniels wasn't even supposed to be playing college ball this season. It wasn't until late December 2017 that it was confirmed Daniels would graduate a year early and reclassify.
Since then, the hype has been unstoppable, but always warranted. In terms of arm strength, poise, precision, maturity and everything else you look for in a quarterback, Daniels has looked more like a senior than an 18-year-old frosh thus far in camps.
Unlike the situations that Trevor Lawrence and Justin Fields are in at Clemson and Georgia, there's no one standing in the way of Daniels starting the season opener. Sam Darnold isn't walking through that door, and neither Matt Fink nor Jack Sears has a legitimate experience edge over Daniels. If anything, the high school connection between Daniels and freshman receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown should give Daniels the edge.
Biggest Question Mark
Is there enough talent for him to work with? Along with Darnold, USC lost a 1,550-yard rusher (Ronald Jones II), a 1,114-yard receiver (Deontay Burnett) and a No. 3 receiver who accounted for 644 yards (Steven Mitchell). Most depth chart projections also have Daniels' blind side being protected by Austin Jackson, a sophomore left tackle who saw limited action last year.
The cupboard is far from empty, of course. Stephen Carr is more than capable of shining in the backfield, and the trio of St. Brown, Tyler Vaughns and Michael Pittman Jr. should make a ton of receptions. But this is a lot of roster turnover to be putting in the hands of a true freshman QB.
2018 Projection: 225-of-371, 2,850 yards, 19 TDs, eight INTs
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Cyrus Fagan, FS, Florida State
4 of 8
Breakout Potential
Cyrus Fagan was a 4-star, top-100 overall recruit in last year's class, per 247Sports. In a loaded Florida State class that also included Cam Akers, Marvin Wilson and Joshua Kaindoh, Fagan flew a bit below the national radar. But he's a hard-hitting ball hawk who had the skill set to shine as a true freshman.
Two things got in the way, though, limiting him to just six tackles last season.
First and foremost, Florida State already had arguably the best free safety in the nation in the form of Derwin James. The No. 17 pick in the 2018 NFL draft fell just one tackle shy of leading the Seminoles in that category. He did rank first in passes defended and tied for the lead in interceptions. He was everywhere, and it kept Fagan from having much of a chance to make an immediate impact.
Even if Fagan had any hope of starting as a freshman, that went out the window when he had surgery to repair a partially torn meniscus, causing him to miss the first seven weeks of the season. By the time he was healthy enough to play, there wasn't much room on the depth chart for him. At that point, it was surprising he didn't just redshirt to preserve a year of eligibility.
But he's healthy now, and James is out of the picture. It's Fagan's time to shine.
Biggest Question Mark
In addition to James, Florida State's defense lost CB Tarvarus McFadden, DB Trey Marshall, LB Ro'Derrick Hoskins, LB Matthew Thomas, DT Derrick Nnadi and DE Josh Sweat. There's still some outstanding talent on the roster—most notably Brian Burns and Levonta Taylor—but that much roster turnover could limit Fagan's breakout. Unless/until the new starters establish their dominance, opponents will have an easier time simply avoiding Fagan.
2018 Projection: 53 tackles, 4.0 tackles for loss, 7 passes defended
Aaron Fuller, WR/PR, Washington
5 of 8
Breakout Potential
In most areas, Washington should be one of the best teams in the country. Both the quarterback (Jake Browning) and running back (Myles Gaskin) are four-year starters. Both the offensive line and defensive line lost one key starter, but those units still have top-10 potential. The linebacking corps is loaded, and the secondary should be sensational.
The only concerns are at wide receiver and punt returner as the Huskies try to figure out how to adjust to life after Dante Pettis.
Aaron Fuller could be a two birds, one stone solution.
For starters, he's the only player left on the roster who has returned a punt for the Huskies in the past two seasons. Granted, we're talking about four returns for a total of 18 yards, but it's something.
Fuller's receiving stats during that time are more impressive. The rising junior has made 42 catches for 475 yards and three touchdowns. His 26 receptions last season were the most among players not named Pettis. And he saved his best for last, racking up six catches for 61 yards and a touchdown in the Fiesta Bowl.
During the spring, Adam Jude of the Seattle Times pegged Fuller as the emerging candidate to become Washington's No. 1 receiver.
Biggest Question Mark
There's plenty of room for more than one receiver to shine in the passing game, but what if Chico McClatcher becomes the No. 1 guy and the primary punt returner?
McClatcher missed most of last season with a broken ankle, but he had 31 catches for 574 yards and five touchdowns as a sophomore and returned a combined total of 31 kickoffs and punts as a freshman. Quinten Pounds could also be a major factor in the passing game if he fully recovers from the torn ACL suffered last November.
2018 Projection: 41 receptions, 497 yards, five touchdowns; 19 punt returns for 208 yards
Sewo Olonilua, RB, TCU
6 of 8
Breakout Potential
Two years ago, Sewo Olonilua was the highest-rated recruit in TCU's class.
Now, he's the X-factor who could help put an end to Oklahoma's three-year run atop the Big 12.
A combination running back/safety in high school, Olonilua is a big athlete (6'3", 225 lbs) with more than his fair share of speed. He didn't get many touches as a freshman, but he started to emerge in a big way last year, finishing with 330 rushing yards, 166 receiving yards and seven total touchdowns. Thus far in his career, he's averaging 5.7 yards per carry and better than one touchdown for every 10 carries.
And with Kyle Hicks out of the picture, the door is open for Olonilua to make another big leap.
He won't be the featured back. That job belongs to Darius Anderson, who led the Horned Frogs in both rushing yards and touchdowns as a sophomore. But Olonilua should become the thunder to Anderson's lightning in what could be a Nick Chubb-Sony Michel type of backfield relationship.
Biggest Question Mark
Will the offensive line be good enough? The Horned Frogs lost four starters up front and have a lot to figure out before they can be taken seriously as a playoff contender.
Also, how will presumed starting quarterback Shawn Robinson factor in, both as a passer and a rusher? If he hits the ground running with the passing game, it'll open up lanes for Olonilua. But if Robinson is frequently hitting the ground and/or running, the backs won't be able to hit their collective ceiling.
2018 Projection: 121 carries, 697 yards, nine touchdowns; 28 receptions, 239 yards, two touchdowns
Dylan Rivers and Rayshard Ashby, LB, Virginia Tech
7 of 8
Breakout Potential
Let's put it this way: If these young linebackers don't have a breakout year, Virginia Tech is drastically overranked in the preseason polls. That's because the Hokies are basically starting over from scratch on defense after losing Terrell Edmunds, Tremaine Edmunds, Greg Stroman, Mook Reynolds, Andrew Motuapuaka, Adonis Alexander, Brandon Facyson, Tim Settle and a few others.
The only returning player who recorded more than one pass defended in 2017 is Divine Deablo—a strong candidate for the best name in college football—and there are only five returning players who averaged better than one tackle per team game: defensive linemen Ricky Walker, Trevon Hill, Houshun Gaines and Vinny Mihota and defensive back Reggie Floyd.
As far as linebackers are concerned, there's almost no experience. Dylan Rivers made two tackles last season, while Rayshard Ashby had none.
But if not them, then whom? True freshman Dax Hollifield should immediately factor into the equation as VT's highest rated recruit in this year's class, but that obviously doesn't solve the "lack of experience" concern.
Even if Rivers and Ashby aren't immediately great, they are going to rack up a good number of tackles just by spending a lot of time in the middle of the defense. If they do thrive right away, the Hokies just might win the ACC's Coastal Division.
Biggest Question Mark
Will they even be able to tackle some of these ACC running backs? Virginia Tech opens the season against Cam Akers and Florida State, which is one hell of an early challenge for young linebackers. They'll later need to contend with Boston College's AJ Dillon, Miami's Travis Homer and Lorenzo Lingard and Georgia Tech's triple option.
2018 Projection: 167 total tackles, 14.5 tackles for loss, 4.5 sacks
Justin Shorter, WR, Penn State
8 of 8
Breakout Potential
Justin Shorter isn't just the highest rated wide receiver in this year's class. With a 247Sports rating of 0.9962, he is the highest rated wide receiver since Dorial Green-Beckham and Stefon Diggs in 2012.
Those two guys combined for 1,243 yards and 11 touchdowns as true freshmen on teams that neither had great quarterbacks nor won enough games to become bowl-eligible. So it's fun to imagine what Shorter might be able to do with Trace McSorley throwing him the ball in an offense with viable College Football Playoff aspirations.
The Nittany Lions do still have Juwan Johnson and DeAndre Thompkins as veterans in the receiving corps. But they lost top deep threats DaeSean Hamilton and Saeed Blacknall, which is where Shorter should shine right away. He's big (6'4"), he's fast, and he's already an excellent route-runner.
In the past two years, only one freshman (Ahmmon Richards in 2016) has amassed more than 830 yards, but it wouldn't be shocking at all if Shorter eclipses 1,000.
Biggest Question Mark
What exactly is this offense going to look like sans running back Saquon Barkley, tight end Mike Gesicki and offensive coordinator Joe Moorhead? The logical conclusion is that McSorley will focus more on his wide receivers. However, it's also a logical conclusion that opposing defenses will be more focused on taking away the deep ball now that they don't need to have 11 sets of eyes on Barkley.
2018 Projection: 52 receptions, 924 yards, eight touchdowns
Kerry Miller covers college football and men's college basketball for Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter, @kerrancejames.
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