Metrics 101: How Many Current NBA Players Are Top 50 of All Time?
The NBA is in a good place right now.
A few legends who debuted before the new millennium are still hanging around, Dirk Nowitzki and Vince Carter chief among them. LeBron James' generation has plenty of enduring standouts expected to fill crucial roles for 2018-19 squads. Younger veterans such as Stephen Curry and Kevin Durant are leading title charges and winning MVP awards, while a host of youngsters are climbing up the ranks expeditiously.
But how many of them have managed to put together resumes leaving them as top-50 players of all time?
In 2015, I completed an in-depth statistical (and anecdotal) analysis that ranked the 100 greatest careers in NBA history. That project, the Legends 100, will serve as the baseline here. We're looking at what players have done since the end of the 2014-15 campaign to see whether they've jumped high enough to register as top-50 contributors in a hypothetical updated edition.
First, we'll start with the players, proceeding alphabetically, who have established themselves as future contenders, tracking toward potential top-50 status but without lengthy enough resumes to get there at this stage of their careers. Then, we'll go over those who were featured in the Legends 100 but fall shy of the cut-off here.
Lastly, we'll answer the primary question by analyzing the recent efforts of active contributors—both those who were in the Legends 100 and outside of it back in 2015—to see who actually falls within the top 50.
Honorable Mentions
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These players weren't featured in the Legends 100, but they have done enough to earn consideration for a spot. They must be established forces—Nikola Jokic, Ben Simmons and Joel Embiid, among others, haven't done enough yet at this level—who are trending toward top-50 status down the road.
Giannis Antetokounmpo
The Milwaukee Bucks positionless deity is off to a torrid start in his five-year NBA career, but we're only thinking about him here because of his performance the last two seasons. So long as he maintains that trajectory, which thrusts him into the MVP conversation and allows the Bucks to consistently function as playoff locks (albeit in the NBA's weaker half), he'll have a shot at inclusion down the road.
You know, when he's not still only 23 years old, entering the 2018-19 campaign ranked 507th in career win shares.
Anthony Davis
Though Anthony Davis won't celebrate his 26th birthday until March, he's already established himself as a force capable of impacting both ends of the floor. With five All-Star appearances, three All-Defensive nods, three All-NBA selections and 0.599 MVP shares (No. 62 in NBA history), he has to at least enter the conversation.
But earning top-50 status requires longevity or a peak that results in something of note. Those accolades don't quite stack up against ring collections, actual MVP awards, scoring titles or something else sure to register in the history books.
Rudy Gobert
Seeing Rudy Gobert here might come as a surprise, but he has been a historic defensive force whose resume is sure to age well, especially if the Utah Jazz continue their upward climb in the Western Conference.
Gobert hasn't played enough games to qualify for all-time leaderboards in rate statistics—he could get over the 400-game threshold by missing no more than seven games in 2018-19—but his score in defensive box plus/minus (4.6) would sit at No. 3, trailing only Ben Wallace and Mark Eaton.
Kawhi Leonard
A Finals MVP and a pair of Defensive Player of the Year awards? A season averaging 25.5 points while shooting 48.5 percent from the field, 38.0 percent from downtown and 88.0 percent from the charity stripe? Enough MVP award shares (0.98) to trail only 42 men in NBA history?
Kawhi Leonard's peak is lofty enough to thrust him into this conversation. Now it's just a matter of how long that peak can be sustained—a function of whether he can return to form with the Toronto Raptors after he played in only nine games during his final season with the San Antonio Spurs.
Were his shooting habits not overshadowed by the exploits of the Splash Brothers, Damian Lillard would get far more credit as a historic marksman. His percentages may not drift into awe-inspiring territory, but that's largely a function of their difficulty. The Portland Trail Blazers routinely ask him to create tough shots off the bounce as a feature, not a flaw, of their offensive system. He's one of only 14 players in NBA history to connect on at least two triples per game while hitting over 36 percent of his attempts and suiting up in at least 400 contests.
Lillard's name might not carry as much weight as some other point guards from this golden generation, but he's been every bit as effective. Plus, his defensive improvements in 2017-18 are a clear-cut indication he's only getting better.
Close but No Cigar
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This is not an attempt to honor every single active player who now enjoys top-100 status. Instead, we're highlighting the players who were already featured in the Legends 100 (spot listed parenthetically) and analyzing their stats since that date to see if they've climbed high enough to enter the top 50.
Spoiler alert: These five haven't.
Carmelo Anthony (No. 68 in 2015)
Per-Game Stats Since 2015: 20.1 points, 6.5 rebounds, 2.7 assists, 0.8 steals, 0.5 blocks
Advanced Metrics Since 2015: 17.0 PER, 52.4 TS%, 14.8 WS, 0.094 WS/48, minus-99.0 TPA
Accolades Since 2015: Two-time All-Star
Carmelo Anthony has drawn closer to earning top-50 status, but based on how many people made the jump from outside the top 100 to inside that exclusive club, earning entry would involve dethroning Reggie Miller. And he hasn't done enough since the conclusion of the 2014-15 campaign to merit that type of status increase, even if he's boosted his overall profile.
Anthony's final two seasons with the New York Knicks featured a pair of All-Star appearances that largely rewarded him for his continued scoring excellence. Sure, he jab-stepped his way into too many commandeered possessions, failed to win games at an impressive clip and declined as both a distributor and defender, but he continued to put his patented skill on full display.
It just isn't enough. And frankly, he'd be in the same (banana?) boat even if he had enjoyed a more successful tenure with the Oklahoma City Thunder.
Vince Carter (No. 67)
Per-Game Stats Since 2015: 6.8 points, 2.7 rebounds, 1.4 assists, 0.7 steals, 0.4 blocks
Advanced Metrics Since 2015: 11.7 PER, 53.0 TS%, 6.9 WS, 0.087 WS/48, minus-11.17 TPA
Accolades Since 2015: None
If Vince Carter were going to make the leap into the top 50, he'd have needed to do so at an earlier stage of his career. While these later years are still impressive for a man entering his fourth decade of life, they've largely been filled with role-player contributions for the Memphis Grizzlies and Sacramento Kings. He could only do so much while playing a meager 20.1 minutes per game, and "so much" doesn't include jumping past 17 legends of the sport.
Per-Game Stats Since 2015: 12.9 points, 9.0 rebounds, 3.2 assists, 0.4 steals, 1.4 blocks
Advanced Metrics Since 2015: 20.4 PER, 54.5 TS%, 19.5 WS, 0.164 WS/48, 415.62 TPA
Accolades Since 2015: One-time All-Star
Pau Gasol has continued to post laudable per-game numbers for both the Chicago Bulls and San Antonio Spurs, but it's telling that his coaches have had to gear the systems around him—not to maximize his talents, but to cover up for his glaring weaknesses. Defensive mobility is chief among them, which has forced head coach Gregg Popovich to figure out how to let Gasol cover a set area of the court while the rest of the unit flits around him and engages in extra motion.
Numbers are rarely empty, but they can be misleading. Such is the case here. Just as one example, Gasol continued to post those strong per-game marks in 2017-18 while the Spurs saw their net rating dip by 2.9 points per 100 possessions with him on the floor.
The sustained individual excellence is enough to push him closer to the sought-after status—I waged an internal battle over whether he has, in fact, surpassed Miller for No. 50—but the team effects don't quite get him there.
Manu Ginobili (No. 75)
Per-Game Stats Since 2015: 8.6 points, 2.3 rebounds, 2.7 assists, 1.0 steals, 0.2 blocks
Advanced Metrics Since 2015: 14.8 PER, 55.3 TS%, 8.9 WS, 0.115 WS/48, 102.22 TPA
Accolades Since 2015: None
We have to talk about Manu Ginobili since he was already part of the top 100 back in 2015, but he isn't earning much more than a cursory mention. His role with the San Antonio Spurs has become more specialized than ever, allowing him to remain effective in limited action while failing to generate enough run to skyrocket up the all-time standings.
Fortunately, there's no shame in settling in as a top-100 lock with a career extending into his 40s.
Tony Parker (No. 60)
Per-Game Stats Since 2015: 10.1 points, 2.0 rebounds, 4.5 assists, 0.6 steals, 0.1 blocks
Advanced Metrics Since 2015: 14.3 PER, 52.4 TS%, 10.3 WS, 0.107 WS/48, minus-173.35 TPA
Accolades Since 2015: None
Tony Parker's decline has come quickly. Without a lightning-quick first step that allows him to dictate the spatial construction of half-court attacks, he's been forced into more disadvantageous looks. In 2017-18, the San Antonio Spurs realized just how far he had fallen and removed the franchise icon from the starting lineup in favor of Dejounte Murray—a clear indication he wasn't climbing any higher on the all-time hierarchy.
The French floor general enjoys an indelible resume filled with success, but the last three years haven't added much to those coffers. He's treading water (at best) in this conversation.
Stephen Curry
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Rank in 2015 Edition of Legends 100: Unranked
Per-Game Stats Since 2015: 27.4 points, 5.0 rebounds, 6.5 assists, 1.9 steals, 0.2 blocks
Advanced Metrics Since 2015: 28.1 PER, 65.4 TS%, 39.5 WS, 0.272 WS/48, 1,395.18 TPA (No. 109 on the all-time leaderboard)
Accolades Since 2015: Three-time All-Star, scoring champion, two-time NBA champion, three-time All-NBA, MVP
As you can see above, only 108 players in NBA history have compiled more career TPA than Stephen Curry has earned in just the last three seasons. Considering the remarkable number of players who have ever suited up in the Association, that achievement helps the two-time MVP make the jump from unranked to well within the top 50.
Not all players who were unranked three years ago are equal. Curry had already won a league MVP and earned a title at that stage of his impressive career, establishing himself as a transcendent offensive force who just needed to sustain his success to jump up the all-time ladder.
Sustain it he has.
Currys' 2015-16 campaign resulted in a scoring title and the only unanimous MVP award in league history. He's continued to give the Golden State Warriors their offensive identity, blitzing opponents with triples and exerting an unmatched gravitational pull that opens up easier opportunities for his teammates. He's set the two highest marks in single-season three-point makes. He's played underrated defense while thriving as a top-notch facilitator who only fails to challenge for assist titles because of the Dubs' offensive system.
In short, he's submitted one of the most remarkable elongated peaks in NBA history.
Kevin Durant
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Rank in 2015 Edition of Legends 100: No. 42
Per-Game Stats Since 2015: 26.6 points, 7.8 rebounds, 5.1 assists, 0.9 steals, 1.5 blocks
Advanced Metrics Since 2015: 27.3 PER, 64.1 TS%, 36.9 WS, 0.254 WS/48, 1,029.63 TPA (No. 156 on the all-time leaderboard)
Accolades Since 2015: Three-time All-Star, two-time NBA champion, two-time Finals MVP, three-time All-NBA
Had Kevin Durant retired after his 2014-15 Oklahoma City Thunder failed to make the playoffs in a stacked Western Conference despite earning a 45-37 record, he'd have done so as a lock for the Hall of Fame. He was already a top-50 player who had earned four scoring titles, held up the Maurice Podoloff Trophy and established himself as one of the most unstoppable players in the sport's history.
But he didn't retire.
Now, he's a two-time Finals MVP after leaving the Thunder behind for the Warriors and continuing to strut his stuff on a different stage. His game is more well-rounded than ever, featuring significant strides as a facilitator and immense growth on defense that allows him to alternate between protecting the rim and shutting down smaller players on the perimeter during any given possession.
He's already the third-best small forward the NBA has ever seen, trailing only Larry Bird and LeBron James.
At this point, you can justifiably call Durant a top-20 player, irrespective of position. SLAM magazine had him at No. 13 while the 2018 playoffs were still in progress. He's an unabashed lock for the top 50, and he's trending toward the top 10 of all time.
James Harden
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Rank in 2015 Edition of Legends 100: Unranked
Per-Game Stats Since 2015: 29.5 points, 6.6 rebounds, 9.1 assists, 1.6 steals, 0.6 blocks
Advanced Metrics Since 2015: 27.3 PER, 61.0 TS%, 43.7 WS, 0.243 WS/48, 1,617.33 TPA (No. 86 on the all-time leaderboard)
Accolades Since 2015: Three-time All-Star, scoring champion, two-time All-NBA, MVP
Since the start of the 2015-16 season, James Harden has accrued 6,923 points, 1,549 rebounds, 2,149 assists, 386 steals and 139 blocks. Those marks might not mean anything in a vacuum, but only 186 players in NBA history have done the same throughout their entire careers—a minuscule number when talking about those who have matched a three-year stretch from Harden.
His work since breaking out into a megastar for the Houston Rockets isn't enough to single-handedly lift him into the top-50 conversation, but it isn't as though he was too far away before. He had already made three All-Star appearances in Houston while establishing himself as an unstoppable offensive machine who could use step-back triples and ref-baiting basket attacks to score with remarkable efficiency, even appearing on MVP ballots in three consecutive seasons.
And speaking of MVPs, his runaway status in 2017-18 (and relatively close runner-up finish in 2016-17) have provided one of his strongest arguments for his all-time standing. Though Harden won't turn 29 until Aug. 26, he's already sitting nicely on the leaderboard for MVP award shares. Only 19 players have ever earned more than his 2.523, and LeBron James (8.066) and Kevin Durant (3.184) are the lone active contributors who have compiled more.
Question his defense and willingness to seek out free-throw trips if you must, though the former is an overblown concern and the latter is a testament to his intelligent, opportunistic play. Just don't question his value.
Dwight Howard
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Rank in 2015 Edition of Legends 100: No. 50
Per-Game Stats Since 2015: 14.7 points, 12.3 rebounds, 1.4 assists, 0.8 steals, 1.5 blocks
Advanced Metrics Since 2015: 20.1 PER, 59.9 TS%, 21.6 WS, 0.15 WS/48, 119.14 TPA (No. 482 on the all-time leaderboard)
Accolades Since 2015: None
Dwight Howard is a tricky candidate because of his ever-worsening reputation, which now includes ignominious exits from the Orlando Magic, Los Angeles Lakers, Houston Rockets, Atlanta Hawks, Charlotte Hornets and Brooklyn Nets (kind of)—the last four of which have taken place since the conclusion of the 2014-15 season and his placement at No. 50 in the Legends 100.
But has he actually done anything to make his stock decline?
Considering we're talking about cumulative careers, that's a relatively tough task. Even when playing at less-than-ideal levels and no longer operating too far above the league average, he's still adding to his all-time profile and providing some value to his teams. Howard has continued to seek out ill-advised post touches and has had trouble fitting into locker rooms during the post-Orlando portion of his NBA tenure, but he's also remained a devastatingly effective rebounder and an enduring positive on the defensive end.
During the last three years, the big man has posted a 22.0 total rebound percentage and a 2.1 defensive box plus/minus. Only three men have matched each of those marks over the same timeframe: Andre Drummond, DeAndre Jordan and Hassan Whiteside.
Howard's recent efforts wouldn't have been enough to vault him into the club while starting from well outside the top 50. But that's a hypothetical about which we don't have to worry, and they certainly haven't depressed his all-time standing.
LeBron James
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Rank in 2015 Edition of Legends 100: No. 7
Per-Game Stats Since 2015: 26.4 points, 8.2 rebounds, 8.2 assists, 1.3 steals, 0.7 blocks
Advanced Metrics Since 2015: 27.8 PER, 61.0 TS%, 40.5 WS, 0.228 WS/48, 1,547.93 TPA (No. 89 on the all-time leaderboard)
Accolades Since 2015: Three-time All-Star, NBA champion, Finals MVP, three-time All-NBA
There's no question LeBron James is one of the 50 greatest players of all time.
At this point, placing James outside your personal top 10 is foolish. Frankly, we could say the same thing about the top five spots, though that competition is at least filled with the elite legends of the sport. I've already argued James is the "best" player of all time even if he isn't the "greatest," and his historic efforts throughout the 2018 postseason have now made the second part of that statement more difficult to justify.
If James' last three years were their own individual entity, they might still function as a top-100 player in NBA history. He's been that good during the end of his second tenure with the Cleveland Cavaliers, carrying his squad to a title while remaining in the yearly MVP race and then playing at arguably his highest level ever while willing Cleveland back into another matchup with the Golden State Warriors in the 2018 NBA Finals.
He didn't miss a single game during his age-33 campaign this past season, and he compiled the No. 37 score on the all-time single-season TPA leaderboard. As if that wasn't enough, he then topped 2003 Tim Duncan to set the new high-water mark in playoff TPA for a single postseason.
At this point, no one should have any questions about his all-time legacy unless comparing him to Michael Jordan or Kareem Abdul-Jabbar.
Dirk Nowitzki
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Rank in 2015 Edition of Legends 100: No. 19
Per-Game Stats Since 2015: 14.9 points, 6.2 rebounds, 1.6 assists, 0.6 steals, 0.7 blocks
Advanced Metrics Since 2015: 17.7 PER, 55.4 TS%, 14.1 WS, 0.119 WS/48, 21.38 TPA (No. 607 on the all-time leaderboard)
Accolades Since 2015: None
Dirk Nowitzki is another unabashed lock for the top 50. He secured that status long ago, and the last three years have only helped push him higher up the leaderboard, to the point that debates should now revolve around how deep into the top 20 he's made it.
Don't mistake the dearth of accolades since 2015 as a sign that Nowitzki has stopped producing.
He's taken on a more specialized role, playing fewer minutes for the Dallas Mavericks so he can remain effective when he's on the court. But that hasn't sapped his ability to drain triples and provide a strong gravitational pull. Nor has it prevented him from using his veteran savvy on defense to avoid becoming an unmitigated liability.
During the 2017-18 campaign, Nowitzki took 4.4 three-pointers per game and connected at a 40.9 percent clip, which only 13 qualified players could match. He might've functioned as a limited passer and defender who didn't always prevent second-chance opportunities, but that didn't keep him from earning a distinctly positive score in real plus/minus, just as he has during each of the last three go-rounds.
Nowitzki's shooting is one of those few skills impervious to Father Time.
Chris Paul
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Rank in 2015 Edition of Legends 100: No. 46
Per-Game Stats Since 2015: 18.8 points, 4.8 rebounds, 9.1 assists, 1.9 steals, 0.2 blocks
Advanced Metrics Since 2015: 25.7 PER, 59.5 TS%, 33.5 WS, 0.26 WS/48, 974.14 TPA (No. 170 on the all-time leaderboard)
Accolades Since 2015: All-Star, All-NBA, two-time All-Defensive
Point guards aren't supposed to continue producing at All-NBA levels after they celebrate their 31st birthdays. That mark tends to indicate an imminent decline for players at a position where success is often predicated upon speed and/or athleticism. But Chris Paul, the Association's resident Point God, has continued to thrive, first for the Los Angeles Clippers and then the Houston Rockets.
Now 33 years old, he's coming off a season in which he averaged 18.6 points, 7.9 assists, 5.4 rebounds, 1.7 steals and 0.2 blocks with a 60.4 true shooting percentage. Freed to fire away early in the shot clock by head coach Mike D'Antoni—a sharp deviation from his disciplined style under Doc Rivers in L.A.—he unlocked different elements to his game and helped elevate the Rockets to the top of the Western Conference standings while submitting numbers that have only been matched by three qualified players in NBA history:
- James Harden (2017-18)
- Magic Johnson (1988-89 and 1989-90)
- Michael Jordan (1988-89)
The criticism that Paul has never advanced to the conference finals is now invalid, and he was a balky hamstring away from potentially eliminating another bugaboo with a Finals appearance. But even that shouldn't be entirely relevant, as he's consistently thrived as an individual on those bigger stages.
In fact, it's increasingly difficult to criticize any part of Paul's impeccable resume, unless you're still in the #RINGZZZ camp.
Dwyane Wade
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Rank in 2015 Edition of Legends 100: No. 26
Per-Game Stats Since 2015: 16.3 points, 4.1 rebounds, 4.0 assists, 1.1 steals, 0.6 blocks
Advanced Metrics Since 2015: 18.3 PER, 51.0 TS%, 9.4 WS, 0.081 WS/48, 8.03 TPA (No. 631 on the all-time leaderboard)
Accolades Since 2015: All-Star
Dwyane Wade's last three years have made for quite the roller-coaster. But even if they've prevented him from being a top-20 lock, they haven't pushed him further down in the all-time conversation. He's still an obvious inclusion in the top 50 who should earn loftier standing on just about every individual ballot.
Of course, that doesn't change the growing concerns that have emerged in recent years.
Wade was still an All-Star during the 2015-16 season, but that was partially an honor earned on the shoulders of his enduring reputation. Though he averaged 19.0 points, 4.6 assists and 4.1 rebounds, he slashed 45.6/15.9/79.3 and began showing the cracks that would become fully formed fissures in the following go-rounds. His 0.8 box plus/minus, for example, was the lowest mark of his career at that point.
After throwing on a different uniform and joining his hometown Chicago Bulls, Wade assumed a smaller role for 2016-17, sacrificing some offensive touches to work on his spot-up shooting and play more inspired defense. It was the first time since his rookie year in 2003-04 that he hadn't represented the Eastern Conference at the midseason festivities, but he was still better than he was in 2017-18. Last season, he split time between the Cleveland Cavaliers and Miami Heat but looked the part of a legend in the obvious twilight of his career—capable of providing flashes that come fewer and further between than ever before.
Wade could continue playing for another decade, dragging his teams down with negative performances, and he'd still function as a veritable lock for the Hall of Fame. We're just highlighting the negatives because they prevent him from rising much higher than the No. 26 finish he earned in 2015, even if that alone ensures his positive placement in this conversation.
Russell Westbrook
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Rank in 2015 Edition of Legends 100: Unranked
Per-Game Stats Since 2015: 26.8 points, 9.5 rebounds, 10.3 assists, 1.8 steals, 0.3 blocks
Advanced Metrics Since 2015: 27.6 PER, 54.4 TS%, 37.2 WS, 0.211 WS/48, 1,925.81 TPA (No. 62 on the all-time leaderboard)
Accolades Since 2015: Three-time All-Star, scoring champion, three-time All-NBA, MVP
Throughout all of NBA history, only two players not named Russell Westbrook have averaged at least 23 points, 10 assists and seven rebounds during a qualified season:
- Oscar Robertson (four times)
- James Harden
That's it.
Westbrook has hit those marks during each of the last three campaigns, earning himself an assist crown and a scoring title in the process. He's also held the Maurice Podoloff Trophy, racked up 1.325 MVP Award Shares (No. 36 on the all-time leaderboard) and established himself as a superstar capable of producing athletic and statistical feats like no one else.
All the while, he's created an increasing sense of division among basketball fans and analysts. While most everyone seemed to get on board with his triple-double stylings in 2016-17, his penchant for stat-stuffing led to a more focused microscope that highlighted his defensive weaknesses and offensive inefficiency throughout 2017-18.
Can the Thunder build a championship contender around him? Did we overrate his 2016-17 exploits? Is he a top-10 player heading into 2018-19?
Even if the answers are "no," "yes" and "no," respectively (and they shouldn't be), he's still done enough to enter the all-time battle and emerge with a top-50 slot.
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