Predicting the Future All-Stars of 2018 NBA Rookie Class
Since 2000, nine draft classes have produced at least five NBA All-Stars. And 2018's could be another to crank out that many.
Three of the following players seemed like good All-Star bets out of college. They ranked top-three on Bleacher Report's Final Big Board. The others two were eye-opening during summer league.
And there are always All-Stars picked outside the top 10 who are tougher to peg before their rookie seasons. We chose two candidates to surprise and potentially reach levels that aren't synonymous with where their teams selected them.
Phoenix Suns C Deandre Ayton
1 of 6
There were 10 first overall picks from 2000-15 who became All-Stars. Ben Simmons figures to be the next, likely in 2019. And Deandre Ayton should be expected to follow suit by his second or third year in the league.
He'll get there with stats, even if the Phoenix Suns struggle to rise up the Western Conference standings.
Already with one of the NBA's most impressive physical profiles, Ayton—7'1", 250 pounds, 7'5 ½" wingspan— should be a force around the basket from Day 1. At baseline, he could average a double-double just by finishing and owning his area under the boards.
But Phoenix took Ayton first for his scoring potential after he ranked in the 98th percentile in half-court points per possession as a freshman.
The Suns will feature him from the short corners or elbows, where he can create shots for himself by spinning, falling away or rising for uncontested high-release jump shots over his defender.
Eventually, the three-ball should arrive. We'll likely see flashes of it during his rookie season before it becomes a more consistent, every-game weapon by 2021.
Ayton has the chance to follow Karl-Anthony Towns and Joel Embiid as the next 20-point scoring center. And with LaMarcus Aldridge aging at 33 and DeMarcus Cousins coming off a severe injury, Ayton could soon have an opening to steal onto the Western Conference All-Star roster.
Dallas Mavericks PG/SG Luka Doncic
2 of 6
No rookie will be more prepared for his first season than Luka Doncic, a EuroBasket gold medalist and the MVP of both the Spanish ACB and Euroleague.
He's faced and risen atop the stiffest competition outside the NBA before turning 20 years old. And with his 6'6", 218-pound size and his unique feel for the game, there isn't any reason to bet on his success plateauing now.
Skeptics who worry about his speed or athleticism should revisit tape of other/previous international NBA All-Stars such as Goran Dragic, Peja Stojakovic, Tony Parker, Manu Ginobili and Pau and Marc Gasol. These players defied the traditional laws of upside that suggest lacking explosion means lower potential.
Doncic is next in line. A combo guard, he is a terrific ball-handler with spectacular vision and passing ability, crafty scoring skills and a working three-ball.
Look for Doncic to lead all rookies in triple-doubles and emerge as the first non-big to make the All-Star team from the 2018 class.
Memphis Grizzlies PF/C Jaren Jackson Jr.
3 of 6
Jaren Jackson Jr. went No. 4 in the draft for potential over production. And while he has a tremendous physical foundation to build off—6'11", 242 pounds, 7'5 ¼" wingspan—the fact that he's consistently demonstrating new or improved skills points to steady development and offensive expansion.
Still, his identity and value will always be driven by defense. The only NBA rotation big to leave college with a higher block percentage than Jackson's (14.3) was Hassan Whiteside (18.8). Jackson appears to be on track to not only become one of the game's top rim protectors but also a switchable big like Clint Capela who can step outside and guard the perimeter.
Meanwhile, Capela's offensive ceiling doesn't touch Jackson's. After making 38 of 96 three-pointers at Michigan State, the rookie upped his shooting accuracy in summer league, where he converted 14 of 28 threes, including some that came off the dribble.
Jackson remains a work in progress as a scorer inside the arc, but he continues to flash glimpses of post moves and even face-up maneuvers that highlight his ability to attack closeouts and make plays with the ball on the move.
And all of this has come before Jackson's 19th birthday in September. He'll still be 21 years old after three full NBA seasons.
It's almost starting to feel like the question is when Jackson will inevitably make an All-Star team and not if he can take the leap.
Chicago Bulls C Wendell Carter Jr.
4 of 6
Wendell Carter Jr. remained in the top-10 discussion throughout his freshman year at Duke. But alongside Marvin Bagley III and Grayson Allen, he wasn't given a large enough role to build the most persuasive case for All-Star potential. Instead, he used summer league to help validate the flickering visions of Al Horford.
Through five games in Las Vegas, playing 28.8 minutes per contest, he averaged 14.6 points, 9.4 rebounds, 2.6 blocks and 1.6 assists.
Stats aside, the eye test said "yes" on Carter, who looked slimmer and more mobile around the perimeter and comfortable releasing threes behind the NBA's deeper arc. Questions about his switchability suddenly seemed overblown after July. And between his jump shot, which continues to appear promising, and his inside play—a strength that's always been convincing—Carter looks like the total package and capable of mirroring Horford's success.
Playing next to Lauri Markkanen, who'll stretch the floor and create space, should only make the game and the transition easier for the Bulls' new franchise center.
New York Knicks SF/PF Kevin Knox
5 of 6
Summer league can appear to be more indicative than large sample sizes of college film.
It happened last year with Donovan Mitchell, an inefficient guard at Louisville but a highly productive and convincing scorer in July. Kevin Knox falls under the same category of prospect whose All-Star potential was partially masked in college.
He just looked better suited for the more open NBA floor during summer league, where he averaged 21.3 points per game. Knox capitalized on the extra space and freedom, showing more ability and creativity than he was able to at Kentucky.
Some overlooked numbers he registered in college include a 45.1 percent shooting clip off the dribble and .946 points per possession as a pick-and-roll ball-handler (85th percentile).
A 6'9" combo forward who made 1.5 threes per game at Kentucky and 2.5 per game last month, Knox possesses big-man size and perimeter skills that spell out mismatch.
He's far from an All-Star at this point, but he's still 18 years old for another week. Knox possesses all the necessary ingredients, and he'll have plenty of time and opportunities in New York to apply them toward maximizing his potential.
Sleeper All-Star Candidates Picked Outside Top 10
6 of 6
Mitchell Robinson (New York Knicks, C, No. 36 pick)
Robinson would have likely been drafted higher had he not skipped college and the NBA combine. The 2017 McDonald's All-American is world-class athletic to the point where lacking a signature skill won't hold him back.
Summer league's rookie leader in player efficiency rating (Jacobi Boykins has yet to find a permanent home and didn't see significant time), per RealGM.com, Robinson has the chance to follow Capela or DeAndre Jordan because of his potential to finish and block shots at the highest levels.
At this stage, he's pure talent without any polish or fundamental skill. If he can add any over the next several years, he has All-Star upside for Knicks head coach David Fizdale to try to unlock.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (Los Angeles Clippers, PG, No. 11 pick)
Gilgeous-Alexander was the third NCAA point guard selected, but it wouldn't be shocking if he developed into a better player than Trae Young or Collin Sexton. At 6'6" with long arms, he possesses mismatch tools for the position, as well as a high skill level off the dribble and a strong feel for the game.
He's shown flashes of pre-injury Shaun Livingston with his similar tools and crafty offense and defense. Kentucky's most consistent contributor as a freshman, Gilgeous-Alexander averaged 19.0 points and 4.0 assists per game in summer league, appearing more confident and competent as a scorer, particularly around the perimeter.
Stats courtesy of Synergy Sports and Sports Reference.
.jpg?w=480)
