'Contender or Pretender' for MLB Playoff Race with 2 Months Left
The MLB postseason picture is coming into focus with two months to go in the regular season and the non-waiver trade deadline now passed.
Seven teams stand as clear-cut contenders with strong odds of reaching the playoffs, while 13 teams can safely be lumped into the "non-contender" column.
The focus ahead will be on the other 10 teams, which reside on the fringe of contention.
Are they legit contenders or just pretenders?
Let's find out.
Obvious Contenders and Clear Non-Contenders
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Before we get started, here's a look at the teams that fell into the categories of obvious contenders and clear non-contenders based on their current postseason odds from FanGraphs:
Obvious Contenders (70 percent playoff probability or better)
- Boston Red Sox (100 percent)
- New York Yankees (100 percent)
- Cleveland Indians (99.8 percent)
- Houston Astros (99.6 percent)
- Chicago Cubs (94.6 percent)
- Los Angeles Dodgers (85.5 percent)
- Milwaukee Brewers (78.3 percent)
Obvious Non-Contenders (5 percent playoff probability or less)
- Baltimore Orioles (0 percent)
- Chicago White Sox (0 percent)
- Cincinnati Reds (0 percent)
- Detroit Tigers (0 percent)
- Kansas City Royals (0 percent)
- Miami Marlins (0 percent)
- New York Mets (0 percent)
- San Diego Padres (0 percent)
- Texas Rangers (0 percent)
- Toronto Blue Jays (0 percent)
- Minnesota Twins (0.2 percent)
- Tampa Bay Rays (0.2 percent)
- Los Angeles Angels (0.6 percent)
Arizona Diamondbacks
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Record: 60-49, first in NL West
Games Back: +0.5 G in division, +0.5 G in wild card
Postseason Probability: 52.8 percent
Deadline Recap
Despite an NL-best 3.05 bullpen ERA, the Diamondbacks turned their attention to upgrading the relief corps on deadline day, adding Jake Diekman (47 G, 14 HLD, 3.69 ERA, 11.1 K/9) and Brad Ziegler (53 G, 11 HLD, 3.98 ERA, 6.4 K/9) to an already strong stable of arms.
Those moves came after Arizona acquired infielder Eduardo Escobar from the Minnesota Twins on July 27. He's taken over for the injured Jake Lamb at third base and is also capable of playing both middle infield positions.
Contender or Pretender?
The D-backs returned essentially the same group that won 93 games last season, minus rental slugger J.D. Martinez and plus a healthy A.J. Pollock, so there's no question this is a talented roster.
However, the starting pitching has not been as reliable with Taijuan Walker out for the season and Robbie Ray still trying to regain his 2017 form. An improved bullpen takes some of the pressure off the starting staff, but this team still looks like a downgrade from last year's club.
That said, Arizona is plenty talented enough to stay in the hunt for a wild-card spot, and this group has now experienced the heat of a pennant race. The Dodgers might be the heavy favorites to win the NL West, but it would be wise not to sleep on the D-backs.
Verdict: Contender
Atlanta Braves
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Record: 57-47, second in NL East
Games Back: 0.5 GB in division, 0.0 GB in wild card
Postseason Probability: 30.5 percent
Deadline Recap
After adding Jonny Venters and Brad Brach to the bullpen last week, the Braves swung a pair of multiplayer deals as the deadline approached.
Atlanta acquired slugger Adam Duvall from the Reds in exchange for Lucas Sims, Matt Wisler and Preston Tucker. The move was as much about freeing up 40-man roster space as finding a right-handed-hitting platoon partner for Ender Inciarte.
The big deal came minutes before the deadline when the Braves obtained Kevin Gausman, who they'll control through the 2020 season, from the Orioles for a package of four prospects—none of whom were among the organizational elite. Gausman gives the rotation an established, controllable starter to build around with Atlanta's young prospects.
Contender or Pretender?
The deal for Gausman was as much about the future as the present. The race for the NL East title could come down to what type of contribution the Braves are able to get from youngsters like Kolby Allard and Mike Soroka, as well as the health of All-Star Mike Foltynewicz.
This group has arrived at relevance well ahead of schedule, and the Braves have the offensive firepower to support an inexperienced starting staff.
The NL East is wide open, so why not this young Atlanta squad?
Verdict: Contender
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Colorado Rockies
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Record: 58-48, second in NL West
Games Back: 0.5 GB in division, 0.0 GB in wild card
Postseason Probability: 31.9 percent
Deadline Recap
Setup reliever Seunghwan Oh (51 G, 15 HLD, 2.52 ERA, 10.1 K/9) was the only notable addition for the Rockies during the month of July. Colorado acquired him from the Toronto Blue Jays in exchange for prospects Forrest Wall and Chad Spanberger.
The team did sign reliever Santiago Casilla and first baseman/outfielder Matt Holliday to minor league deals, and those veterans could make their way onto the 25-man roster at some point.
Contender or Pretender?
The Rockies stood pat while the Dodgers and Diamondbacks both made several impact moves at the deadline, and they now look like the clear No. 3 team in the NL West.
The Chicago Cubs and Milwaukee Brewers both look like playoff-bound teams out of the NL Central, which doesn't bode well for the Rockies' wild-card hopes. They're essentially battling the Dodgers and D-backs for two spots.
Tyler Anderson and Kyle Freeland have both been excellent this season, but the Rockies again don't have the pitching to make a serious push.
Verdict: Pretender
Oakland Athletics
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Record: 63-46, third in AL West
Games Back: 5.0 GB in division, 1.0 GB in wild card
Postseason Probability: 41.0 percent
Deadline Recap
The Athletics have been one of the biggest surprises of the 2018 season, but they stayed the course at the deadline, opting against mortgaging high-end prospect talent for the sake of short-term contention.
They did add Jeurys Familia to the back of the bullpen July 21, but it will be largely up to the incumbent talent that has already exceeded expectations to deliver a postseason berth.
Contender or Pretender?
The bad news: The Athletics find themselves in a similar position as the Rockies.
The Houston Astros seem like a lock to win the AL West, and an improved Seattle Mariners roster looks like the No. 2 team in the division. With whoever loses the AL East title (the Red Sox or Yankees) likely to host the AL Wild Card Game, that leaves the A's to fight for just one spot.
The good news: It's essentially a two-team race for that spot.
The Tampa Bay Rays (9.0 GB), Los Angeles Angels (9.5 GB) and Minnesota Twins (12.5 GB) are the closest there is to a third contender for the No. 2 wild-card position. Unless we're willing to call the Mariners a postseason lock (we're not), the A's have to be viewed as contenders.
Verdict: Contender
Philadelphia Phillies
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Record: 59-48, first in NL East
Games Back: +0.5 G in division, +0.5 G in wild card
Postseason Probability: 57.2 percent
Deadline Recap
Despite missing on Manny Machado, the Phillies made some significant additions before the deadline.
Asdrubal Cabrera turned out to be Plan B after Machado went to the Dodgers. All-Star Wilson Ramos should provide an offensive upgrade at the catcher position once he returns from the disabled list, and lefty reliever Aaron Loup will be a welcome addition to a righty-heavy bullpen.
Contender or Pretender?
Are the Phillies the team to beat in the NL East?
They might be after adding that trio of veterans at the deadline. Really, it's the starting rotation that has lifted them into contention.
Aaron Nola has emerged as a true ace atop the staff, and the rotation as a whole has been vastly improved—they've gone from 21st (4.80) to eighth (3.81) in starters' ERA.
Playing in a top-heavy NL East also gives them a chance to beat up on the Marlins and Mets should they find themselves pushing for a wild-card spot instead. Either way, the Phillies are in a strong position to make the playoffs for the first time since 2011.
Verdict: Contender
Pittsburgh Pirates
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Record: 56-52, third in NL Central
Games Back: 6.0 GB in division, 3.0 GB in wild card
Postseason Probability: 16.4 percent
Deadline Recap
A hot streak leading up to the deadline turned the Pirates from likely sellers into aggressive buyers, and they added two of the biggest arms on the market in starter Chris Archer and reliever Keone Kela.
Both players have team control through the 2021 season, so this was by no means an all-in move for 2018. It cost two tremendous young talents in Austin Meadows and Tyler Glasnow to acquire Archer and a hard-throwing lefty on the cusp in Taylor Hearn to land Kela, but the Pirates have improved their rising stock considerably.
Contender or Pretender?
The Pirates were 40-48 on July 7, which left them 12.5 games back in the NL Central standings and 10 games back in the wild-card race.
They've gone 16-4 with a plus-47 run differential in the 20 games since. After adding those two impact arms, they look poised to be a significant factor in the NL playoff race.
Can they close the gap in the NL Central? After all, the Cubs and Brewers also improved at the deadline.
Either way, the Pirates are rolling right now, and it would be a mistake not to take them seriously.
Verdict: Contender
San Francisco Giants
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Record: 55-54, fourth in NL West
Games Back: 5.0 GB in division, 4.5 GB in wild card
Postseason Probability: 5.4 percent
Deadline Recap
The Giants made no notable moves leading up to the deadline.
Contender or Pretender?
Even though they didn't sell at the deadline, the decision not to buy was essentially a waving of the white flag by the Giants.
An 11-14 record and minus-13 run differential in July would seem to back that up.
Johnny Cueto appears headed for Tommy John surgery, and the starting staff has been cobbled together all season, starting with the spring injury to Madison Bumgarner.
That said, a complete lack of offensive punch might be the bigger issue, as they've averaged just 4.04 runs per game—good for 24th in the majors.
Expect the Giants to be active sellers on the August waiver market. Andrew McCutchen looks like a prime candidate to be moved, and Nick Hundley and Derek Holland may also be of use to a contender.
Verdict: Pretender
Seattle Mariners
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Record: 63-44, second in AL West
Games Back: 4.0 GB in division, 0.0 GB in wild card
Postseason Probability: 58.5 percent
Deadline Recap
The Mariners added Adam Warren (24 G, 2 HLD, 2.70 ERA, 11.1 K/9), Zach Duke (46 G, 12 HLD, 4.06 ERA, 9.3 K/9) and Sam Tuivailala (32 G, 4 HLD, 3.51 ERA, 7.0 K/9) to a relief corps that ranks 14th in the majors with a 3.92 ERA and has been far from a strength this season.
They also picked up speedy outfielder Cameron Maybin in a trade with the Marlins. The 31-year-old hit .309/.427/.456 over 82 plate appearances in July and will provide the Mariners with a fourth outfielder who is capable of playing all three outfield spots.
Contender or Pretender?
As we've already touched on, it's basically Seattle or Oakland for the No. 2 wild-card spot, and Seattle looks like the superior team after shoring up the bullpen at the deadline.
The Mariners are trying to get out from under the longest active postseason drought in baseball, which dates back to 2001, and general manager Jerry Dipoto has never shied away from the trade market, so they could continue to add if a need arises.
Counting on Wade LeBlanc and Marco Gonzales as key pieces of the rotation is risky, but they haven't faltered yet.
Verdict: Contender
St. Louis Cardinals
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Record: 54-53, fourth in NL Central
Games Back: 7.5 GB in division, 4.5 GB in wild card
Postseason Probability: 7.0 percent
Deadline Recap
The Cardinals shipped outfielder Tommy Pham to the Rays for a package of three prospects, opening up a role at the MLB level for power-hitting prospect Tyler O'Neill.
They also traded reliever Sam Tuivailala and first baseman Luke Voit, bringing back a couple of relief prospects and MLB reliever Chasen Shreve. It wasn't an aggressive deadline in either direction, but they were more seller than buyer.
Contender or Pretender?
It's been a trying season for the Cardinals. Even after firing manager Mike Matheny, there seems to be some lingering dysfunction surrounding the club.
Trading away Pham to open up playing time for O'Neill was an excellent forward-looking move, and there's still more than enough talent on this roster for the Cardinals to be a factor in 2019.
This just hasn't been their year.
A waiver trade of Bud Norris is still a possibility, but aside from that, expect the Cardinals to quietly coast along in fourth place in the NL Central the rest of the way with a record hovering around .500.
Verdict: Pretender
Washington Nationals
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Record: 53-53, third in NL East
Games Back: 5.5 GB in division, 5.0 GB in wild card
Postseason Probability: 40.6 percent
Deadline Recap
The Nationals balked at the idea of trading Bryce Harper and Gio Gonzalez, and GM Mike Rizzo proclaimed on deadline day, "I believe in this team," according to Chelsea Janes of the Washington Post.
The Nats didn't make any notable additions, though, and actually wound up trading Brandon Kintzler to the Cubs and designating Shawn Kelley for assignment after his glove-throwing incident Tuesday.
Contender or Pretender?
The window has officially slammed shut.
Despite his vocal belief in the team, Rizzo made no effort to improve the club for the stretch run. It looks like the Nationals are riding out the Bryce Harper era before regrouping during the offseason.
Could they make a late-season run?
Absolutely. They're still arguably the most talented team in the division on paper, and they've certainly been there before. But this doesn't seem like a group that's going to pull together and rally.
Verdict: Pretender
All stats courtesy of Baseball Reference, unless otherwise noted. Team records, playoff probabilities and stats accurate through July 31.
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