Buy or Sell the Riskiest Fantasy Football Picks for 2018

The NFL season is still seven weeks away, but fantasy football draft season is already upon us.

Are you prepared for yours?  We're here to help.

The following players have average draft positions of 100 or higher, according to FantasyPros, despite facing potential issues like injuries, position battles and/or a lack of experience. As a result, all are risky picks. 

Which ones are we buying and selling? Let's dive in.

Buy: QB Deshaun Watson, Texans

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You have to give Houston Texans quarterback Deshaun Watson the benefit of the doubt.

Before he went down with a torn ACL in early November, Watson ranked second leaguewide in fantasy points despite starting only six games during the first eight weeks of the season. He may have a post-surgery sophomore slump a la Robert Griffin III in 2013, but Watson suffered his injury two months earlier in the year than Griffin did, and he's already been on the field for individual drills at organized team activities. 

A better comparison could be Donovan McNabb, who was plenty effective in 2007 after he tore his ACL midway through the 2006 season. 

Watson's second season might not be quite as splashy as his abbreviated inaugural campaign, but it looks as though he'll be healthy. And he has enough weapons alongside him to be considered a high-upside QB1. 

Sell: QB Jimmy Garoppolo, 49ers

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Remember, we're talking fantasy here. It's possible to love what you've seen from San Francisco 49ers quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo but also be concerned about his fantasy value as he prepares for his first full season as an NFL starter. 

Garoppolo isn't a surefire QB1, mainly because his supporting cast isn't quite there yet. He doesn't have a premier No. 1 receiver, a proven tight end or a sure thing at running back.

The 2017 sample we have for Garoppolo is also smaller than the one we have for Watson, and Watson is at least a rushing threat.

With so many proven quarterbacks available, going with Garoppolo as your QB1 is too much of a gamble.  

Buy: QB Carson Wentz, Eagles

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Like Watson, Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Carson Wentz is coming off a major knee injury. Wentz also suffered his injury later in the year, leaving him less time to recuperate.

But the 25-year-old was playing at an MVP level before he went down in December, and his recovery appears to be going well.

Last month, tight end Zach Ertz told Jeff McLane of the Philadelphia Daily News that Wentz had the "same zip, if not more" on his throws in offseason activities. 

The 2016 No. 2 overall pick out of North Dakota State is less reliant on his legs than Watson, so it won't cripple fantasy owners if he's largely relegated to being a pocket passer early in the season. But much like Watson, his upside is too high for him not to be viewed as a QB1 in fantasy this year.

Sell: QB Andrew Luck, Colts

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Even though he wasn't fully healthy and missed one game in 2016, Indianapolis Colts quarterback Andrew Luck finished fourth at his position in fantasy scoring that season. That'll tempt a lot of fantasy owners to select him as their QB1 this year, but the potential reward might not be worth the risk. 

Luck missed the entire 2017 season and a good chunk of the 2018 offseason to recover from a lingering injury to his throwing shoulder. And while recent reports indicate he's finally on the right track, there's too much room for something to go wrong. 

There's no guarantee he'll start Week 1, and even if that happens, we don't know how effective he'll be after such a long hiatus. 

You're better off going with more of a sure thing as your QB1. Watson, Wentz, Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, Russell Wilson, Kirk Cousins, Ben Roethlisberger, Alex Smith, Cam Newton, Matthew Stafford and Jared Goff all fit that mold.

Buy: RB Derrick Henry, Titans

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There's some trepidation regarding Tennessee Titans running back Derrick Henry from a fantasy standpoint this offseason. The Titans gave veteran back Dion Lewis a four-year, $19.8 million contract in free agency, and Henry has never been an every-down back at the NFL level. 

However, the Alabama product has scored 11 touchdowns in two NFL seasons despite starting only four games, and his 4.3 yards-per-attempt average is impressive for a 247-pounder. It's fair to wonder how much Lewis will cut into Henry's workload, but Jim Wyatt of the Titans' website wrote last week that "the plan is for [Henry] to be the lead back."

That's enough for him to be considered a high-upside RB2, which makes him deserving of an average draft position in the top 30. 

Sell: RB LeSean McCoy, Bills

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There's too much uncertainty surrounding Buffalo Bills running back LeSean McCoy for him to be considered a top-end fantasy pick.

The 30-year-old is dealing with abuse accusations from an ex-girlfriend, and Pro Football Talk's Mike Florio suggested McCoy may be placed on the Commissioner Exempt List while the NFL investigates those claims. 

The veteran was a Pro Bowler in 2017, but his numbers plummeted in comparison to 2016. His yards-per-attempt average dropped from 5.4 to 4.0, and his touchdown total sank from 14 to eight.

Off-field concerns combined with his seemingly inevitable decline and a shaky quarterback situation in Buffalo should cause drafters to reconsider selecting McCoy as a fantasy starter. 

Buy: RB Rashaad Penny, Seahawks

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You're always taking a risk with a rookie running back in fantasy, just because there's an inevitable unknown element. But Seattle Seahawks rookie back Rashaad Penny is tough to pass up as an early-round pick. 

Penny averaged 7.75 yards per carry during his two seasons as a regular or semi-regular starter at San Diego State, and he's coming off a massive senior season in which he compiled 2,383 scrimmage yards and 25 touchdowns. He has tremendous vision and patience, and it looks as though the Seahawks plan to use him as an every-down back in 2018. 

Looking for this year's Kareem Hunt or Alvin Kamara? With quarterback Russell Wilson keeping opposing defenses honest, Penny has a chance to make a huge impact as a rookie. 

Sell: RB Marlon Mack, Colts

Darron Cummings/Associated Press

2017 fourth-round pick Marlon Mack appears to have a leg up on the competition at running back in Indianapolis, but that isn't enough for him to be worthy of RB2 status in fantasy drafts. 

The South Florida product averaged only 3.8 yards per carry as a rookie, and he's recovering from offseason shoulder surgery. The Colts still don't know what to expect from the quarterback position, and they also selected two backs—Nyheim Hines and Jordan Wilkins—in the middle rounds of the 2018 draft. 

Stay away from Mack unless you're drafting him as depth. 

Buy: RB Kerryon Johnson, Lions

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Not only is Detroit Lions rookie running back Kerryon Johnson a fantasy gamble, but he's still jockeying for position on his team's loaded running back depth chart. 

We're still buying his stock, though, because LeGarrette Blount likely doesn't have much left in the tank, Ameer Abdullah has been a bust and Theo Riddick is little more than a third-down guy. Some of those vets will cut into Johnson's carries, but he'll have a chance to capture the lead job this summer. 

Bleacher Report's Doug Farrar recently called Johnson the most underrated rookie in the NFL, and the Lions believe he's a three-down back. He might not be as valuable as Henry or Penny, but after he scored 20 touchdowns as a junior in the SEC, he's worth a small roll of the dice as an RB2 or a flex option.

Sell: RB Sony Michel, Patriots

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Rookie New England Patriots back Sony Michel averaged 6.1 yards per carry during his four years at Georgia, and he has the size, speed and physicality to justify the team's decision to select him 31st overall.

However, there's no way in hell fantasy owners should buy into a first-year player in the Patriots backfield. 

New England has long been unpredictable with its distribution of carries, and Bill Belichick and Josh McDaniels have too many other backs in their stable. Having to fight with Rex Burkhead, Mike Gillislee, James White and Jeremy Hill for touches will make it tough for Michel to play a major role in 2018. 

Buy: RB Royce Freeman, Broncos

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Rookie Royce Freeman appears poised to immediately take the reins in the Denver Broncos backfield this season. He's coming off a four-year run at Oregon in which he averaged 5.9 yards per carry and compiled 64 touchdowns, and there's a vacancy at the top of Denver's running back depth chart with C.J. Anderson gone. 

Actions spoke louder than words when the Broncos released Anderson in April, two weeks before they drafted Freeman. The only other backs on the roster in contention for carries are Devontae Booker and De'Angelo Henderson, but Booker has averaged only 3.6 yards per attempt through his two NFL seasons, while Henderson was a non-factor as a rookie sixth-round pick in 2017. 

Freeman is worth the gamble as a potential low-end RB2 or flex.

Sell: RB Ronald Jones, Buccaneers

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Like Michel in New England, rookie Tampa Bay Buccaneers running back Ronald Jones might be surrounded by too much talent to be drafted as a fantasy starter in 2018.

Jones is an explosive back coming off a huge season in which he averaged 5.9 yards per carry and scored 20 touchdowns at USC, but the Bucs also have Peyton Barber, Jacquizz Rodgers and Charles Sims on the roster. 

Barber is a power back who averaged a solid 4.3 yards per carry as a regular last December. It wouldn't be surprising if he ate into a good chunk of Jones' carries and stole a bunch of his touchdowns in 2018, while Sims is likely to play a major role on third downs. Meanwhile, Rodgers is a year removed from a season in which he averaged a strong 4.3 yards per attempt.

Taking all of that into account while considering that Bucs quarterback Jameis Winston will be suspended for the first three games of the season, and it's obvious Jones isn't worth the dice roll.

Buy: WR Jordy Nelson, Raiders

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Jordy Nelson is no longer a WR1 or WR2 at age 33, but the 10-year veteran has missed just one game in the last two years after recovering from a preseason ACL injury that cost him the entire 2015 season, and he could benefit greatly from a new environment in 2018. 

Nelson's numbers plummeted last year as Davante Adams emerged and Brett Hundley started the majority of the season in place of Aaron Rodgers. But on the Oakland Raiders, he'll replace Michael Crabtree, who scored at least eight touchdowns in each of the last three seasons in that offense. 

A healthy Derek Carr at quarterback should make Nelson a good value selection in the middle rounds of fantasy drafts.

Sell: WR Josh Gordon, Browns

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Yes, Josh Gordon was once one of the NFL's most productive young receivers. But the 27-year-old has played only 10 games in the four seasons since he led the league with 1,646 receiving yards in 2013. 

Gordon is healthy and out of trouble at the moment, but there's no guarantee he'll get back on track as a top-tier wideout. His Cleveland Browns still face questions at quarterback, and Gordon caught only 43 percent of the passes thrown his way in five outings last season. 

Even if he stays on the field, Gordon can't be trusted as a WR1 or WR2 in a receiving corps that will also feature the more reliable Jarvis Landry. 

Buy: TE Trey Burton, Bears

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There's a lot of mystery surrounding new Chicago Bears tight end Trey Burton, mainly because the 26-year-old has started only five games and scored six touchdowns in four NFL seasons. But he was a backup with the Philadelphia Eagles, while the Bears are paying him to play a much larger role in 2018. 

Burton caught 66 percent of the passes thrown his way over the last two years in Philly, and he's coming off a five-touchdown campaign despite backing up Zach Ertz.

Watch for him to immediately become a reliable safety valve for quarterback Mitchell Trubisky in a promising young offense, which should make him a worthwhile low-end TE1. 

Sell: TE Jordan Reed, Washington

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Washington Redskins tight end Jordan Reed has flashed tantalizing upside throughout his five-year career, which will cause plenty of fantasy owners to select him as their No. 1 tight end this summer. 

However, Reed has never made it through a full NFL season healthy.

Though he made the Pro Bowl in 2016, he missed four games that season, and he was sidelined for an additional 10 this past year. This offseason, he's been dealing with lingering toe and hamstring injuries.

That's far from ideal, and it should cause you to instead consider up-and-coming tight ends with lower ADPs such as O.J. Howard or Austin Seferian-Jenkins.