Position Battles That Will Have the Biggest Impact on the 2018 CFB Season
Alabama, Clemson, Georgia and Oklahoma have two things in common: Each was selected for the College Football Playoff last season, and each school has a crucial quarterback battle to decide in fall camp (or shortly thereafter).
Debating position battles gets us through the doldrums of the college football offseason, even though there's little to no concrete news about them from December to August. Every once in a great while, something will get decided in spring practice. But injuries before, during and after the spring ensure that nothing is set in stone until the season begins.
But, darn it, we all have thoughts about who the starters ought to be, and we're ready to be proved right or wrong in fall camp.
For the most part, we'll be looking at quarterback battles. In addition to being the most important position and the one that receives the most national attention, it's also one of the only positions where—in the words of Reese Bobby in Talladega Nights—"If you ain't first, you're last." We'll take a peek at a couple of noteworthy competitions at running back and wide receiver, but even the losers in those battles will still be in line for a lot of touches.
Alabama Quarterback
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The Battle: Jalen Hurts vs. Tua Tagovailoa (vs. Mac Jones?)
From the moment Tua Tagovailoa entered the national championship game in place of Jalen Hurts, this has been one of the biggest offseason debates in college football history.
The spring did absolutely nothing to help establish a pecking order. Tagovailoa was out with an injury to his throwing hand, and Hurts wasn't impressive. If anything, the spring only served to further complicate matters, because presumed third-string QB Mac Jones was excellent in the A-Day game.
And if you're expecting an answer to this question before or during fall camp, you're probably going to be disappointed. If you'll recall two seasons ago, Alabama went into its season opener against USC with Hurts, Blake Barnett and Cooper Bateman all thinking they had a shot at becoming the primary guy. Barnett even started the game, and Hurts lost a fumble on the first touch of his career before it became apparent that Hurts was going to be "the man" moving forward.
With the new rule allowing players to compete in up to four games in a season while still maintaining the option to redshirt, this debate might go on into late September. Coincidentally, the fourth game of the season (vs. Texas A&M) is probably the toughest the Crimson Tide will face until November, so it would make sense for that one to be the best measurement of who Nick Saban trusts the most.
The Prediction: After going 26-2 as the starter for the last two seasons, Hurts at least gets to start the opener against Louisville. What happens from there is anyone's guess.
Auburn Running Back
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The Battle: Kam Martin vs. Devan Barrett vs. Malik Miller vs. JaTarvious Whitlow vs. Asa Martin
Kerryon Johnson and Kamryn Pettway combined for 3,815 rushing yards and 42 touchdowns over the last two seasons. Each running back had one year of eligibility remaining, but they both opted to enter the NFL draft, leaving Auburn with a bit of a dilemma at what is typically its position of power.
Fortunately, scarcity isn't the problem, since Gus Malzahn seems to sign at least two of the 50 highest-rated running backs every year. (Case in point, in the 2018 class, he got No. 9 Harold Joiner, No. 13 Asa Martin and No. 24 Shaun Shivers.) It's simply unclear at this juncture which of the many options will contribute at a high level, or if any will be able to shoulder a full load as a lead tailback.
As far as experience goes, Kam Martin is the clear leader heading into fall camp. The rising junior has carried the ball 118 times over the last two seasons, averaging 6.6 yards per tote with five touchdowns. But he has done most of his damage against the likes of Alabama A&M, Georgia Southern and Louisiana-Monroe. Against SEC competition, those numbers dip to 51, 298 and one, respectively.
In other words, he may have the most experience of the quintet, but all five guys will get a fair shake in this competition. The starting job and the subsequent breakdown of carries throughout the season may be determined by who stays healthy and who has the hot hand from one week to the next.
The Prediction: Kam Martin leads the group in yards per carry, but Malik Miller and JaTarvious Whitlow compete for the most touches as the bruisers who can handle a heavy workload.
Clemson Quarterback
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The Battle: Kelly Bryant vs. Trevor Lawrence
Though more time and energy may be spent debating Jalen Hurts and Tua Tagovailoa at Alabama, it may be Dabo Swinney's impossible decision at Clemson that has the biggest impact on the upcoming season.
Kelly Bryant did an adequate job of replacing Deshaun Watson and keeping Clemson near the top of the college football world. Bryant's passing statistics were nothing close to what Watson managed in 2015 and 2016, but his arm was enough to keep defenses honest, while his legs were potent enough to make this offense tough to stop.
Though he was only a starter for one year and didn't even average one passing touchdown per game, conventional wisdom would suggest that the senior should start ahead of the true freshman.
And yet, Trevor Lawrence is a phenom who is tied with Tagovailoa for the third-best odds to win the Heisman, per OddsShark. Granted, Bryant has the joint-11th-best odds, so you could argue that "Clemson QB" is the front-runner to win the award this year. But it's clear that expectations are sky-high (and immediately so) for one of the best arms in high school football history.
There was one recent, similar case as a possible precedent. Two years ago at Georgia, stud freshman Jacob Eason immediately took the job away from senior starter Greyson Lambert. But Lambert led an offense that ranked 85th in scoring and didn't even win its division or finish in the AP Top 25, let alone compete for a national championship. Pushing Bryant aside would be a much tougher call to make.
The Prediction: The season opener against Furman is an open audition for a battle that won't be decided in fall camp. How Bryant performs in the first half of the Week 2 road game against Texas A&M will determine who takes the vast majority of snaps for the remainder of the season.
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
Florida State Quarterback
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The Battle: James Blackman vs. Deondre Francois
Florida State's dreams of a national championship went right in the toilet when Deondre Francois suffered a season-ending knee injury in the first game of 2016. It didn't help matters that the defense underperformed all year long, but the Seminoles needed a healthy Francois in order to meet expectations.
That said, James Blackman fared well for a true freshman who wasn't expected to make a meaningful contribution. Florida State scored at least 20 points in nine of his 12 games played, averaging 49.8 points in its final four contests. Granted, the level of competition in those last four games (Delaware State, Florida, Louisiana-Monroe, Southern Mississippi) was a far cry from the first eight, but there's no question that Blackman improved throughout the season.
In addition to Blackman's play, Francois' off-the-field distractions make this a difficult decision. Though Francois was not arrested in either situation, it can't be a great first impression on new head coach Willie Taggart that Francois was involved in a domestic dispute in January and a drug investigation at his apartment in April.
At this point, it's probably Blackman's job that Francois is hoping to win in fall camp. And if Francois is anything less than 100 percent physically at the start of camp, it may well be Bailey Hockman who's No. 2 on the depth chart.
The Prediction: Blackman starts the season opener against Virginia Tech, but nothing is actually decided until after that critical game.
Georgia Quarterback
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The Battle: Jake Fromm vs. Justin Fields
Let's note two things about this one right off the bat:
No. 1: Jake Fromm recently fractured a bone in his non-throwing hand in a boating incident.
No. 2: He isn't expected to miss any time because of the injury, so I could not care less.
Just wanted to get that on record, since just about everyone in the college football media was obsessing over that insignificant bit of news for several days. But it should have no impact on Georgia's quarterback battle.
That isn't to say Fromm is definitely going to win the battle. Justin Fields is an exceptional talent, and the Bulldogs might need his mobility at quarterback to help offset the loss of stud running backs Nick Chubb and Sony Michel. And while we often focus on the legs of the dual-threat QB in this competition, he has one hell of an arm, too. The Dawgs wouldn't necessarily be sacrificing anything in the passing game by turning things over to the true freshman.
However, it's hard to believe Kirby Smart would put Fromm on the bench a few months after he helped lead the team to the title game. Even if you believe Fromm is more of a game manager than a game-changer and was reliant on the ground game and the defense, there's no question he built up some equity with his performance in 2017. Georgia's staff can coachspeak about open competitions all it wants, but this has to be Fromm's job unless something drastic happens in fall camp, right?
Perhaps the real question isn't who the starter is but rather how much Fields gets to play as the backup. If Smart could figure out how to get both Chubb and Michel close to 100 rushing yards per game, he might be able to work out a 60-40 split at QB this year.
The Prediction: Barring injury or a nightmarish performance in the first three weeks, Fromm starts every game, but Fields gets a lot of playing time, too.
Mississippi State Wide Receiver
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The Battle: Free for all
Former Fordham head coach and Penn State offensive coordinator Joe Moorhead is hoping to turn Mississippi State into a title contender for the first time since World War II. Given what he helped build at his previous schools, he's not the only one who's optimistic. From the moment the hiring was announced, most college football pundits began salivating about what his mind could do with this roster.
Provided he makes a full recovery from the devastating ankle injury that cut short his junior year, dual-threat QB Nick Fitzgerald should be headed for a huge season. And while Aeris Williams is no Saquon Barkley, Moorhead is inheriting a senior running back with more than 2,000 career rushing yards.
But who are the receivers going to be?
While there are six returning players who had at least 160 receiving yards last year, there wasn't a single Bulldog who had more than 27 receptions, 276 yards or four touchdowns in 2017. Meanwhile, at Penn State, Moorhead had four players with a minimum of 53 receptions and 563 yards last year.
It would be quite the change of pace if he didn't develop a few go-to downfield weapons. And incoming JUCO transfer Stephen Guidry may well be the No. 1 wide receiver when the regular season begins.
The Prediction: Moorhead's playbook balance skews more toward runs than it did at Penn State, but Deddrick Thomas, Guidry and tight end Farrod Green become the primary targets in the pass game.
Nebraska Quarterback
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The Battle: Adrian Martinez vs. Tristan Gebbia vs. Andrew Bunch
Even with new head coach Scott Frost, Nebraska is a preseason afterthought in a conference where Michigan, Michigan State, Ohio State, Penn State and Wisconsin are all viable candidates to win the national championship. At any rate, the Cornhuskers are the only team on this list that is unlikely to open the season in the AP Top 25.
And yet, this quarterback battle could have massive CFP implications because Nebraska will face four of the five teams listed above—road games against the Badgers, Buckeyes and Wolverines and a home game against the Spartans.
Tanner Lee's early declaration for the NFL draft—coupled with Patrick O'Brien's decision to transfer in April—left the Huskers without any experience at QB. Neither Andrew Bunch nor Tristan Gebbia has appeared in a game, and Adrian Martinez is a true freshman. Factor in the coaching change, and this might be the nation's most wide-open competition of the fall.
Martinez is viewed by most Nebraska fans as the RPO phenom of the future. Is he ready right now, though? He missed his entire senior season of high school due to a shoulder injury, but both he and Gebbia looked great in Nebraska's spring game a few months ago. Most notably, Martinez rushed for three touchdowns in that scrimmage, which might make him the front-runner. (No pun intended.)
The Prediction: Martinez wins the job, prompting Gebbia—a redshirt freshman who was a 4-star recruit in 2017—to transfer elsewhere for a better shot at future playing time.
Ohio State Running Back
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The Battle: J.K. Dobbins vs. Mike Weber
The great thing about a running back competition is it doesn't need to be an either/or proposition. Both Nick Chubb and Sony Michel rushed for well over 1,000 yards last year for Georgia. And in 2016, Appalachian State, Iowa, Kentucky, New Mexico, Oklahoma, San Diego State and Tulsa all had two running backs who racked up at least 135 carries, 1,000 yards and seven touchdowns.
In an ideal world, it doesn't matter who Ohio State's starter is. J.K. Dobbins and Mike Weber could each get a dozen or more touches per game, propelling the Buckeyes to another Big Ten title. With J.T. Barrett (165 carries for 798 yards and 12 touchdowns) out of the picture, there ought to be more carries to go around.
Still, it will be intriguing to see whether the guy who rushed for 1,096 yards as a freshman in 2016 (Weber) or the guy who rushed for 1,403 yards as a freshman in 2017 (Dobbins) gets the first crack at proving his dominance in 2018.
Even after Weber had recovered from his preseason injury, Dobbins was clearly the preferred running back in this tandem. He received more carries than Weber in each of Ohio State's final seven games. Over the course of those two months, Dobbins had 94 carries for 628 yards, while Weber got 53 carries for 399 yards.
That divide was particularly wide in the games that mattered most at the end of the year. Between the Big Ten championship and the Cotton Bowl, Dobbins carried the ball 30 times for 213 yards, and Weber received just nine carries for 24 yards.
Will it be more of the same or will it be a more balanced attack?
The Prediction: Dobbins remains the primary back, but the split is less drastic than last season. They combine for 2,700 yards with both backs eclipsing 1,000.
Oklahoma Quarterback
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The Battle: Kyler Murray vs. Austin Kendall
Heading into the offseason, it didn't seem like there was a legitimate competition here. Kyler Murray was the 2015 5-star recruit who transferred in from Texas A&M, becoming the backup to Baker Mayfield once eligible this past season. It's largely because of Murray's presence that Austin Kendall redshirted in 2017 in what would have been his sophomore season.
All signs pointed to Murray as the guy trying to pick up where the 2018 No. 1 overall draft pick left off.
Yet, throughout the spring, head coach Lincoln Riley insisted that Kendall is in the conversation for the job. Then Kendall out-performed Murray in the spring game. And an unprecedented variable was introduced to the equation when Murray was taken with the ninth overall pick in the Major League Baseball draft in June.
Because he signed a multi-million-dollar contract with the Oakland Athletics, we already know that this coming season will be Murray's final one in college. So if it actually is a close call between the two options, why wouldn't Oklahoma go with the QB who could be the starter in 2018, 2019 and 2020?
The Prediction: Murray starts every game (barring injury), but Kendall gets enough playing time to keep him from wanting to transfer.
Wisconsin Tight End
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The Battle: Zander Neuville vs. Jake Ferguson vs. Kyle Penniston
Only at Wisconsin could a tight end competition be a crucial one to watch in the fall, right?
For as much as you may have heard this offseason about Wisconsin returning pretty much its entire offense from last year's near-undefeated campaign, Troy Fumagalli was a massive loss. He was Alex Hornibrook's go-to guy for the last two years, making 93 receptions for 1,127 yards. No other player recorded so much as 50 catches or 700 yards during that time.
Fortunately, the Badgers have options for replacing him.
Zander Neuville missed the spring with a leg injury, but he may still be the leader in the clubhouse after accounting for nine receptions for 81 yards and two touchdowns last season. As far as proven game experience goes, though, Kyle Penniston is right there with Neuville. Over the past two seasons, he has 13 catches for 158 yards and three scores.
And then there's redshirt freshman Jake Ferguson, who was a vital piece of the scout team last season and a revelation this spring. Based on some of the highlight-reel catches he was making in April, he might be the best candidate for stepping into the hole Fumagalli leaves behind.
The Prediction: Neuville is officially listed as the starter for most games, but thanks to a lot of two-TE sets, all three guys finish the season with at least 10 receptions.
Kerry Miller covers college football and men's college basketball for Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter, @kerrancejames.
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
