Projecting the 10 Biggest NBA Free-Agent Contracts This Offseason
It's all about the money.
NBA free agents make decisions for a variety of reasons. Maybe they really are chasing the biggest possible paycheck. (Who could blame them for that?) Perhaps they just want a fresh start in a new location. Some might be seeking out a scheme that best fits their unique talents, while others could be driven by location—whether for their families or a potential reunion with their hometown squad. The explanations for offseason decisions can be wide-ranging.
But here, we're only concerned with the dollars.
We don't care which team might ink Clint Capela, Aaron Gordon or Julius Randle to a lucrative offer sheet. We're not worried about the uniform LeBron James will throw on next season. Where Paul George signs is irrelevant for the time being...unless that decision directly impacts the number on his next contract.
All that matters is the average annual value (note: not total value) of a player's upcoming deal.
The bigger, the better.
10. JJ Redick
1 of 10
Team: Philadelphia 76ers
Age: 34
Type of Free Agency: Unrestricted
2017-18 Per-Game Stats: 17.1 points, 2.5 rebounds, 3.0 assists, 0.5 steals, 0.1 blocks
JJ Redick may seem like a strange choice for the No. 10 spot because so many other young contributors could draw sizable deals. But as we saw during the 2017 offseason, teams are willing to pony up for elite skills like this 2-guard's enduring shooting ability. He's now coming off a one-year balloon deal with the Philadelphia 76ers worth $23 million, and he could well earn a similar contract this offseason.
Remember, we're not talking about the total amount of money earned by these players, but rather the average annual value of their new pacts.
If Redick decides to ink a four-year contract that takes him deep into his 30s, that number will shrink. But given the limited money available and the caution likely to be exercised throughout the summer, taking another short-term deal with a higher average figure is the more likely scenario.
LeBron James or Paul George could ruin this by deciding to sign with the Sixers and pushing them closer to the salary cap. But if they don't and Philly looks to run back the 2017-18 roster, it'll have around $30 million in cap space to play with and precious few roster spots to fill. In that scenario, don't be surprised when Redick agrees to a slightly longer deal worth plenty more cash.
Projection: Two years, $36 million
9. Julius Randle
2 of 10
Team: Los Angeles Lakers
Age: 23
Type of Free Agency: Restricted
2017-18 Per-Game Stats: 16.1 points, 8.0 rebounds, 2.6 assists, 0.5 steals, 0.5 blocks
If some team gets desperate for frontcourt help, it could conceivably throw Julius Randle a max offer in an attempt to lure the restricted free agent away from the Los Angeles Lakers. More realistically, those coveting his services will hand him around $20 million per season and hope the Purple and Gold get distracted by its pursuit of established superstars.
Randle is an intriguing commodity, but he's not a perfect player. That won't change unless he continues to improve his defensive discipline, develops more shooting range and keeps working on increasing the unpredictability of his basket attacks.
And therein lies the hesitation.
Who wouldn't want his passing skills lining up either as a power forward or small-ball center? Now that he's finishing plays around the hoop at an impressive clip and continuing to create his own looks, he's even more valuable on the offensive end. But he's still coming off a year in which he allowed opponents to shoot 61.8 percent at the tin, and he could only make 22.2 percent of his 0.5 three-point attempts per game—10-of-45 on the year.
Max and near-max bigs in today's NBA must be able to either space the floor or protect the rim. Ideally, they can do both. So as much as Randle might aid the cause in other areas, his weaknesses in those two coveted facets will cap his earning potential during the current contract cycle.
Projection: Four years, $80 million
7 (tie). Clint Capela
3 of 10
Team: Houston Rockets
Age: 24
Type of Free Agency: Restricted
2017-18 Per-Game Stats: 13.9 points, 10.8 rebounds, 0.9 assists, 0.8 steals, 1.9 blocks
2017-18 Advanced Metrics: 24.5 PER, 2.14 RPM, 124.08 TPA
With only four years of NBA service, Clint Capela is eligible for the least of the NBA's max contracts. Should the Houston Rockets decide to re-sign him for the most money allowed under the collective bargaining agreement, he'd be emerging from restricted free agency with a five-year deal worth $146.5 million.
But that's a bit aggressive because of one big complication.
NBA players are allotted higher annual raises when they stay with their own teams in free agency. Remaining put can allow for a fifth year and a salary bump of 8 percent per season, whereas joining a new organization limits you to a four-year contract with 5 percent raises each campaign.
Since Capela is a restricted free agent who could agree to an offer sheet with a different franchise, knowing full well the Rockets will likely match, he could hedge his bets and maximize his earning potential by agreeing to that lesser deal. After all, turning up his nose might subsequently limit his options, ruin his leverage and force him into accepting even less money later in the offseason.
Already, we know at least one organization wants (wanted?) to tempt him with a max offer sheet.
"According to a league source, one such team is the Phoenix Suns," Kelly Iko reported for USA Today. "They have kept tabs on him throughout the season and have reportedly become 'enamored' with him. They have plans to offer Capela a max or near-max contract once free agency begins."
Granted, that news came well before the draft and the desert arrival of No. 1 pick Deandre Ayton. But the point still stands: Capela will likely receive at least one max offer sheet from a rival organization.
Projection: Four years, $108.6 million
7 (tie). Aaron Gordon
4 of 10
Team: Orlando Magic
Age: 22
Type of Free Agency: Restricted
2017-18 Per-Game Stats: 17.6 points, 7.9 rebounds, 2.3 assists, 1.0 steals, 0.8 blocks
All the same rules that affect Clint Capela are back in action here.
"Yeah definitely, but we'll see how it goes," Aaron Gordon revealed, per ESPN.com's Ian Begley, when asked if he'd like to re-sign with the Orlando Magic. "Whatever Orlando wants to do. As a restricted free agent, I completely trust [management]. ... Hopefully we just get it wrapped up with Orlando. That would be fantastic."
But the Magic might be understandably hesitant to hand him the full max. They already have Jonathan Isaac and Mohamed Bamba lining up in the frontcourt, and Gordon's stark decline after a hot start in 2017-18 has to loom large. After the All-Star break, the 22-year-old could only average 16.0 points, 6.9 rebounds, 2.7 assists, 1.3 steals and 0.9 blocks while shooting 40.6 percent from the field, 31.6 percent from downtown and 64.5 percent at the stripe.
The upside remains palpable. When Gordon's perimeter stroke is working, he's an ideal new-age power forward who can create for himself and his teammates while providing spacing for everyone else. That blend of skill and athleticism that produces some thunderous jams is tantalizing, easily worthy of the most money allowed to be siphoned off.
But the floor isn't a lofty one, because Gordon's free-wheeling offensive game can drag his team down when the shots aren't falling.
If Orlando hesitates, someone else will fall prey to the potential, handing him a max offer sheet that's ultimately necessary to lure him away from the only NBA squad he's ever known. He's still going to get paid either way.
Projection: Four years, $108.6 million
6. Nikola Jokic
5 of 10
Team: Denver Nuggets
Age: 23
Type of Free Agency: Team Option
2017-18 Per-Game Stats: 18.5 points, 10.7 rebounds, 6.1 assists, 1.2 steals, 0.8 blocks
2017-18 Advanced Metrics: 24.4 PER, 5.97 RPM, 349.79 TPA
We already know what's going to happen with Nikola Jokic. The Denver Nuggets will officially decline his team option, allowing him to hit the market as a restricted free agent. They're only motivated to do so because the benefit of one more year on a rookie-scale salary isn't worth frustrating the big man and opening the door for an unrestricted departure in the summer of 2019.
But as soon as they're legally allowed to do so, they'll have him sign a max contract to remain with the organization throughout the foreseeable future. Since Jokic is coming to the bargaining table with fewer than six years of NBA service, he'll have the following contract structure (unless the salary-cap projections prove errant and change these numbers slightly):
- 2018-19: $25,250,000
- 2019-20: $27,270,000
- 2020-21: $29,290,000
- 2021-22: $31,310,000
- 2022-23: $33,330,000
Lo and behold, that's exactly what's already being reported.
"Denver Nuggets star Nikola Jokic will have his team option declined for next season to become RFA, and sides plan to reach agreement on a five-year, $146.5M maximum contract," Yahoo Sports' Shams Charania revealed to the Twittersphere on Monday. All that's left is for ink to meet parchment and then dry.
Projection: Five years, $146.5 million
5. DeMarcus Cousins
6 of 10
Team: New Orleans Pelicans
Age: 27
Type of Free Agency: Unrestricted
2017-18 Per-Game Stats: 25.2 points, 12.9 rebounds, 5.4 assists, 1.6 steals, 1.6 blocks
2017-18 Advanced Metrics: 22.6 PER, 3.66 RPM, 200.03 TPA
Now this one is tricky.
"The [New Orleans] Pelicans have broached internally the idea of offering [DeMarcus] Cousins a two- or three-year deal at less than the max, per sources familiar with the discussions," ESPN.com's Zach Lowe reported in April. "I would not expect that to go over well with Cousins' camp. But the Pelicans have the dual leverage of winning without Cousins and a tepid market for him."
During the early portion of the 2017-18 campaign, Cousins earning anything less than a full-length max contract seemed unfathomable. But then came the Achilles rupture that ended his season prematurely. The Pelicans made the playoffs without him, driven largely by the unabashed excellence of Anthony Davis and Jrue Holiday, while Cousins was forced to rehab an injury that has proved devastating to the careers of many before him.
Now, the market for his services is questionable, even if we look past the perceived baggage that has plagued him throughout his NBA tenure—attitude concerns, consistent failures to get past the regular season, etc.
Few teams have max money available this offseason without making cost-clearing moves. Fewer still also have the desire to roster a center who's starting to move beyond his true athletic prime and coming back from an Achilles injury. That favors the Pelicans' attempt to re-sign him for a lower cost, but we're still going to find a compromise here.
Cousins is so darn talented—and New Orleans posted a 5.5 net rating with him, Davis and Holiday on the floor, which would've ranked No. 4 in the season-long hierarchy—that he could (and should) still earn a max salary. It'll just come with a shorter duration to remain by the bayou, allowing the team to escape sooner if the move does end up backfiring.
Projection: Two years, $63 million
4. Paul George
7 of 10
Team: Oklahoma City Thunder
Age: 28
Type of Free Agency: Unrestricted
2017-18 Per-Game Stats: 21.9 points, 5.7 rebounds, 3.3 assists, 2.0 steals, 0.5 blocks
With eight years of NBA service to his credit (seven with the Indiana Pacers and one with the Oklahoma City Thunder), Paul George doesn't quite meet the criterion for the league's largest salary structure. But he'll still be able to sign either a five-year, $175.7 million contract to remain with OKC or a four-year, $130.3 million pact to join another organization.
Unless he takes a pay cut or a short-term deal, those average annual values of $35.1 million and $32.6 million, respectively, would still leave him clear of DeMarcus Cousins ($31.5 million). At the same time, he'd fall behind even a one-year max contract earned by the three remaining players in this countdown, since their double-digit years of NBA experience make them eligible for a $35.4 million salary in 2018-19.
His place in these rankings is locked in. His next destination, however, isn't.
I've already gone into detail about six potential fits for George during his foray into free agency. He's the type of malleable wing who can be used in virtually any system deployed by modern NBA teams. Whether he remains with the Thunder, jets to the Los Angeles Lakers (still the most likely scenario, in my book), boosts the ceiling of the Philadelphia 76ers or catches everyone by surprise by joining a different franchise, he's going to prove worthy of the max money he'll be owed.
If you're of the belief that George will continue teaming up with Russell Westbrook, just read the projection as a five-year deal worth $175.7 million. That's totally fine. No one should begrudge you that. We're just veering slightly, as the odds of the non-Thunder field should be significantly higher than those for no change in location.
Projection: Four years, $130.3 million
3. LeBron James
8 of 10
Team: Cleveland Cavaliers
Age: 33
Type of Free Agency: Player Option
2017-18 Per-Game Stats: 27.5 points, 8.6 rebounds, 9.1 assists, 1.4 steals, 0.9 blocks
2017-18 Advanced Metrics: 28.6 PER, 4.96 RPM, 593.09 TPA
Everything hinges on the length of LeBron James' commitment.
At this point, we can safely assume he's not going to accept anything less than a max contract, whether he remains with the Cleveland Cavaliers or opts to join a different organization capable of surrounding him with superior pieces. Nothing he's said or done has hinted at alternative outcomes, as James has consistently managed to wield his monumental leverage in a way that allows for optimum levels of flexibility.
Should he stay in Northeast Ohio, don't be surprised when he does so on a two-year deal worth $73.5 million that gives him a player option for the second campaign—a one-plus-one, as it's known. If he joins the Los Angeles Lakers, Philadelphia 76ers or some other franchise, he could do so with a similar pact, this time a two-year contract worth $72.5 million that again contains an option on the back end.
But just in case we're wrong and James does sacrifice his long-term flexibility, inconceivable as that may seem, we do have to figure out the most he could make. And by remaining in Cleveland after opting out, he could potentially wind up with a five-year contact for a whopping $205 million.
Must be tough.
Still, at this stage of the rankings, we're splitting hairs. The top three players are all NBA veterans capable of earning as much money as possible, and only their locale and length decisions will push one above the others.
Projection: Two years, $72.5 million
1 (tie). Chris Paul
9 of 10
Team: Houston Rockets
Age: 33
Type of Free Agency: Unrestricted
2017-18 Per-Game Stats: 18.6 points, 5.4 rebounds, 7.9 assists, 1.7 steals, 0.2 blocks
2017-18 Advanced Metrics: 24.4 PER, 6.99 RPM, 266.65 TPA
Let's turn to ESPN.com's Adrian Wojnarowski, who made the following statement during an episode of The Woj Pod (h/t Kyle Boone of CBSSports.com):
"When the [Houston] Rockets made that deal for Chris Paul with the [Los Angeles] Clippers, knowing they would re-sign him in free agency, I think they made a conscious decision that they were gonna have to live with $46, $47 million-a-year salary when he's not nearly the player anymore in his late 30s, but, 'We're gonna make a run at it now; we wanna win a championship now. We'll deal with it [Paul's contract] later.'
"We'll see how that plays out in their contract talks here in free agency. But Chris Paul didn't turn down $200 million from the Clippers because he thought that somehow the Rockets were gonna talk him into saving them luxury-tax money. I don't imagine it playing out that way."
Paul is the exception who proves the "aging point guards" rule.
Though NBA teams are supposed to run away from floor generals with 33 years spent on the planet, the league's resident Point God is still going strong. Not only is he a perfect fit alongside James Harden, but he's also coming off a season in which he paced the NBA in ESPN.com's RPM. Injuries, not his production, stand out as the only concern.
Maybe a full-length max will look bad on the tail end (and we're giving him one fewer year for that very reason), but Paul is still capable of justifying the monetary expenditures in the immediate future.
Projection: Four years, $158.4 million
1 (tie). Kevin Durant
10 of 10
Team: Golden State Warriors
Age: 29
Type of Free Agency: Player Option
2017-18 Per-Game Stats: 26.4 points, 6.8 rebounds, 5.4 assists, 0.7 steals, 1.8 blocks
2017-18 Advanced Metrics: 26.0 PER, 3.61 RPM, 274.99 TPA
No matter what you hear about Kevin Durant potentially teaming up with LeBron James on the Los Angeles Lakers (or another rumor involving a different team that hasn't yet surfaced), he's going to be rejoining the Golden State Warriors for another contract.
The reigning Finals MVP knows he's found a perfect situation in the Bay Area, and he's set up to reap some financial rewards after sacrificing nearly $10 million last summer. Warriors general manager Bob Myers has already confirmed his side's interest, saying he'll give Durant "whatever he wants. Sometimes you don't negotiate. I'd love to have him for 10 years."
But the exact figures could get a little tricky, as Dan Devine laid out expertly for Yahoo Sports.
The 29-year-old could conceivably take another one-plus-one contract, delaying his full extension for another year so that Golden State could control his full Bird rights and offer him a five-year contract worth approximately $219.2 million. He could do a two-plus-one structure with an opt-out clause before the 2020-21 season. Or, he could just get the biggest extension presently available with early Bird rights.
Given the ever-changing NBA landscape and the willingness to make sacrifices for team-building purposes in prior offseasons, it's the last outcome that we're betting on. Durant has earned the right to take whatever money he can get right now.
Projection: Four years, $158.4 million
Unless otherwise indicated, all stats courtesy of Basketball Reference, NBA.com, NBA Math or ESPN.com.
