NBA Finals 2018: Odds and Predictions for Championship Series
It's been 39 years since both the NBA's Eastern and Western Conference final series went the full seven games, but that's what will happen this year if the Golden State Warriors beat the Houston Rockets on Saturday.
The Warriors are 12.5-point favorites, per OddsShark, with the massive double-digit spread partially due to Rockets point guard Chris Paul being out with a hamstring injury.
The Eastern Conference Finals already has a Game 7 on tap, as the Boston Celtics will host the Cleveland Cavaliers on Sunday at 8:30 p.m. ET.
Here's a look at the updated championship odds, per OddsShark, in addition to predictions for the remainder of the playoffs.
Updated Championship Odds
Golden State Warriors: +100 (wager $100 to win $100)
Houston Rockets: +160
Boston Celtics: +800
Cleveland Cavaliers: +1,000
NBA Finals Schedule
The winner of the Western Conference Finals will have home-court advantage in the NBA Finals, as the Rockets and Warriors have the best two regular-season records of the teams remaining.
East winner at West winner (Game 1): Thursday, May 31 at 9 p.m. on ABC
East winner at West winner (Game 2): Sunday, June 3 at 8 p.m. on ABC
West winner at East winner (Game 3): Wednesday, June 6 at 9 p.m. on ABC
West winner at East winner (Game 4): Friday, June 8 at 9 p.m. on ABC
East winner at West winner (Game 5, if necessary): Monday, June 11 at 9 p.m. on ABC
West winner at East winner (Game 6, if necessary): Thursday, June 14 at 9 p.m. on ABC
East winner at West winner (Game 7, if necessary): Sunday, June 17 at 8 p.m. on ABC
All Times ET
Cavaliers vs. Celtics
The Celtics have defeated the Cavaliers three times at home in the playoffs, and those victories have come by an average of 17.0 points. The TD Garden crowd has made the arena a house of horrors for opposing teams in the postseason, as the C's have gone 10-0 at home in the playoffs.
In particular, Cavaliers outside James and Kevin Love have struggled against Boston on the road. Of note, no player has scored more than 11 points in any game at Boston this year.
It's certainly possible a player or two emerge from the pack to have good games on Sunday, but Love may miss Game 7 after leaving Game 6 early following a collision with Celtics forward Jayson Tatum.
Love, who was evaluated for a concussion post-game (the team has not revealed an official diagnosis as of yet), spoke with Jason Lloyd of The Athletic after Game 6:
If Love can't go, then it's hard seeing the Cavs win a road game. If he is available, expect this matchup to be much closer, but the edge goes to the Celtics' homecourt advantage over James' postseason dominance.
Of course, those may end up being famous last words as James gets a 50-point triple-double, but Cleveland simply hasn't fared well on the road of late.
Pick: Celtics
Rockets vs. Warriors
This series hinges on the health of two players: Rockets point guard Paul and Warriors guard/forward Andre Iguodala.
Paul suffered a hamstring strain late in his team's Game 5 win and did not return, and he'll be out for Game 6, per Shams Charania of Yahoo Sports. His status for a potential Game 7 is currently unknown.
As for Iguodala, he missed Games 4 and 5 with a left lateral leg contusion and is listed as questionable for Game 6.
Mark Medina of the Mercury News provided a quote from Warriors head coach Steve Kerr, who said Iguodala is improving "incrementally" but it was still "unknown" whether he would suit up Saturday.
Iguodala isn't a star player like some of his teammates, but he's been vital to the team's success during its championship run, and the Warriors have lost the two games he's missed in this series.
Without Paul, though, a Rockets victory looks very unlikely on Saturday, especially with Houston playing in Oracle Arena.
The Warriors have dominated in the postseason since Kevin Durant arrived in 2016, going 16-1 (that one loss was a 95-92 defeat in Game 4 of this series). Obviously, the Rockets are no strangers to beating Golden State on the road in the playoffs, but that win came with Paul posting 27 points.
Look for the Warriors to take Game 6. With Paul's Game 7 status unknown at this time, it's hard to predict the series finale. But if he is out or limited, the Warriors should have the edge in the series closer in Houston as well.
Pick: Warriors
Celtics vs. Warriors: NBA Finals
The Celtics and Warriors met twice in the regular season, with each team coming away with a four-point home victory.
The personnel on the Boston side won't be the same, obviously: C's point guard Kyrie Irving played in those two matchups, and he's out for the rest of the year following knee surgery in April. Celtics guard Marcus Smart was out for the second regular-season matchup (a 109-105 loss) but is back on the court.
Although the young Celtics team isn't used to the NBA Finals spotlight, look for them to take this series deep. Boston has faced (and beaten) plenty of star power in this year's playoffs, from Giannis Antetokounmpo to Joel Embiid and Ben Simmons to LeBron James.
The Celtics don't seem intimidated by their opponents or the bright lights of the playoffs—expect that attitude to carry over in the championship series.
The issue for Boston is it would lose home-court advantage for the first time all playoffs. The Celtics have an undefeated home record, but they have won just one road game out of eight in this year's postseason.
Meanwhile, the Warriors are 36-6 at home since the 2014-15 season, when they won their first championship in the Kerr era.
A C's-Warriors series would probably be the most entertaining hypothetical matchup out of the four possible ones remaining.
If this does come to fruition, don't be surprised if the C's push Golden State to a seventh game. However, the guess here is the Warriors emerge with a Game 7 win and take their third championship in four years.
Pick: Warriors
