NBA Playoffs 2018: Golden State Warriors' Blueprint to Beating Houston Rockets
The Houston Rockets are on the Golden State Warriors' playoff route for the third time in four years.
But the Dubs might barely recognize them.
These aren't the woefully undermanned squads Golden State bounced with 4-1 ease out of the 2015 Western Conference Finals and 2016 opening round. James Harden is more potent than ever, due both to a matured skill set and a stronger supporting cast spearheaded by Chris Paul and overseen by offensive mastermind Mike D'Antoni.
Houston is built for this series. Not that the Rockets' obsession means much to the Warriors.
"We haven't been running around like, 'We want them bad,'" Draymond Green told reporters. "No, we want a championship bad."
These Rockets are tricky—they have stars, sharpshooters, versatile stoppers and a blossoming big man who could be a matchup problem.
But these Warriors are loaded, talented enough to make a fourth straight Finals run by following this blueprint.
Start Fast
1 of 5
The Dubs often indulged in a luxury only available to the NBA's dynastic elites—sleepwalking. They almost treat the opening stanza as a feeling-out period, as if pinpointing exactly how much effort a victory would require.
As the game went on, Golden State would ramp up its intensity and usually blow the doors off opponents. No team had more efficient periods than the Warriors' third quarters, which they won by an absurd average of 18.5 points per 100 possessions.
But the Warriors can't pace themselves in this matchup. Their margin for error isn't wide enough.
Not only are the Rockets a powerhouse in their own right, they're also the Association's premier first-quarter club (plus-16.8). The Warriors were only 10th in first-quarter efficiency (plus-2.0).
"If we play well in the first quarter, we play well the whole game," Eric Gordon said, per Anthony Slater of The Athletic.
The Rockets think they're on the Warriors' level—maybe even above it.
A lopsided first-quarter scoreboard in Houston's favor would throw fuel on that confidence fire, especially with Space City hosting Games 1 and 2.
The Warriors never won a first quarter during their three regular-season meetings with the Rockets, but they kept two of them close. The one that got away (40-28) came in Houston's biggest win in the series (116-108).
Neutralize Clint Capela
2 of 5
Casual fans could be confused into thinking drawing a matchup with Clint Capela instead of Karl-Anthony Towns or Rudy Gobert is a dodged bullet. But Capela outplayed both of those higher-profile players the last two round and now stands as a potential wrench in Golden State's small-ball plans.
Capela can give the Warriors fits on the inside. He has a hawkish 7'4" wingspan stretching out from his 6'10" frame, and he knows how to use it. No one has blocked more shots (28) or grabbed more rebounds (122) this postseason than Houston's surging center.
There isn't an ideal one-on-one option against him.
Green might get the bulk of that duty, but he's giving up size, length and athleticism. Jordan Bell and Kevon Looney are closer to matching the physical gifts, but each works in a supporting role or less. Zaza Pachulia is (again) too slow for this series, and JaVale McGee can't be trusted to contain Capela's constant screening and crashing.
"D'Antoni…possesses the only center on either side who enters this series consistently playing, let alone dominating at an All-Star level," Brian T. Smith wrote for the Houston Chronicle. "…If the Rockets are going to finally overcome the Warriors, they're going to need Capela at his playoff best."
The Warriors must uncover ways of containing Capela. He's quick and agile for his size, but Stephen Curry and Kevin Durant could prove too slippery off the dribble. And if Golden State barricades Capela's rolls to the rim and lob chances, he's not capable of creating his own offense.
As long as the Warriors don't lose track of him, there are holes in his game that can be exploited. He didn't post a positive plus/minus during any of their three regular-season tilts and finished the series a minus-35 in 75 minutes.
Get Klay Thompson in Rhythm
3 of 5
Klay Thompson kicked off the playoffs the same way he ended the regular season—steaming hot. After tallying 57 points over his final two outings of the campaign, he averaged 25.7 points (on .633/.650/1.000 shooting) during the first tilts of the opening round.
The Dubs won all three of those contests by an average of 16.3 points. Then, Thompson crashed back to earth with a 12-points-on-16-shots dud, which coincided with Golden State's first loss of the second season.
That's no coincidence; the Warriors rarely waste a gem from Thompson. He scored 22-plus points in 30 games this season, 25 of which were Golden State victories. That's an .833 winning percentage (or a 68-win pace), and even that might undersell his importance in this series.
"The Warriors have never lost to Houston when he's scored at least 25 (8-0)," Marcus Thompson II wrote for The Athletic. "Conversely, the Warriors are 6-6 when Thompson fails to score at least 15."
To be clear, Thompson will leave his biggest imprint on the defensive end in this series. He'll have heavy servings of Harden and Paul duties, and the more of those battles Thompson wins, the closer Golden State gets back to the championship round.
But Thompson's offense could transform this series from a potentially thorny one into one the Warriors handle with relative ease. It's possible Curry, Durant, Harden and Paul all cancel out each other's scoring. Thompson, though, is unrivaled as an All-Star third option. If he's regularly flirting with 25 points, it's hard to see Houston finding an answer.
Ride the Hamptons Five
4 of 5
Considering it might be the best lineup ever assembled, the Hamptons Five underwhelmed this season.
Curry, Thompson, Durant, Green and Andre Iguodala played 127 minutes together and outscored opponents by 8.4 points per 100 possessions when they did. Twenty-nine other lineups had a higher net efficiency while playing at least that many minutes.
But the postseason's bright lights have brought the best out of Golden State's walking cheat code. During 54 minutes of shared playoff action, this historically loaded quintet has stampeded the opposition by 40.9 points per 100 possessions. Only two playoff lineups with 50-plus minutes have an efficiency half as high, and one belongs to the Dubs (same setup except McGee instead of Curry).
"We all bring the best of each other," Curry said, per NBA.com's David Aldridge. "We increase the pace of the game, but the versatility [is] at the defensive end. ... I think the biggest thing offensively is that we're all playmakers, try to look for the best shot, stay within ourselves and just make the right play."
This is the riddle no other team has solved yet. It's also the reason Houston has tried hoarding as many lanky, athletic, interchangeable defenders as possible.
But at its best, it's unguardable. More than that, it maximizes Golden State's greatest strength in this series (superior star power) while minimizing its most worrisome weakness (lack of depth).
Whether these five start together or not, they should get significant run on a nightly basis. If Curry's knee is right, the four All-Stars could comfortably hover around the 38-minute mark while Iguodala ramps up to 30. It's hard to see Houston keeping up with only two stars and a streaky supporting cast.
Play with Discipline
5 of 5
Golden State has long been in its own worst enemy. That's partly due to a sometimes-wavering attention to detail and partly due to having a clear talent advantage over everyone else.
But the Dubs must be razor-sharp in their execution, because the Rockets are poised to pounce on any missteps.
Giveaways are always a worry with Golden State. It averaged 15.4 turnovers during the regular season, the Association's fifth-highest mark. What's more concerning, though, is how Houston can capitalize on freebies. With two electric attackers in Harden and Paul surrounded by shooters, the Rockets make defenses pick their poison on fast breaks. Only five teams averaged more points off turnovers than Houston's 17.4.
The problem is slowing down Houston doesn't necessarily mean slowing down Houston. The next part of the challenge is hoping to contain the two franchise floor generals and all those flamethrowers at their disposal.
If you miss a rotation, the Rockets will exploit it. They just splashed an NBA-record 1,256 triples this season. If you have a defensive weak spot, they'll repeatedly attack it. They know what they want to do, and they go to it over and over again. No team ran more isolations, and only one took more catch-and-shoot threes per game.
"It's a series where you've got a lot of shooting out there for Houston, a lot of one-on-one play," Steve Kerr said, per Bay Area News Group's Daniel Brown. "We have to stay in front of them."
The Rockets don't need the Warriors to beat themselves. But Houston needs something to narrow the gap. Fiery hot shooting and continued dominance from Capela are possibilities. Careless offense and scattered, lazy defense from Golden State would almost guarantee the Dubs' demise if they regularly surface.
Unless otherwise indicated, all stats are from Basketball Reference or NBA.com.
Zach Buckley covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter: @ZachBuckleyNBA.
