San Antonio Spurs vs. Golden State Warriors: Game 1 Odds, NBA Betting Pick

The second-seeded Golden State Warriors (58-24) will begin the defense of their NBA championship short-handed on Saturday, when they host the seventh-seeded San Antonio Spurs (47-35) as large home favorites for Game 1 of their Western Conference first-round playoff series.

The Warriors are still without leading scorer Stephen Curry (knee), while the Spurs have not had Kawhi Leonard (quad) for most of the season and do not expect him to play again this year.

NBA point spread: The Warriors opened as six-point favorites; the total is at 209.5, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark. Line updates and matchup report.

NBA betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 106.8-106.4, Spurs. NBA picks on every game.

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Why the Spurs Can Cover the Spread

San Antonio has covered the spread in each of these sides' past two meetings, according to the OddsShark NBA Database, routing Golden State 89-75 as an eight-point home favorite in the most recent game between the teams on March 19.

The Spurs have been playing much longer without Leonard than the Warriors have without Curry, so they are well-adjusted to being without their star man and know what they have to work with here. In the teams' previous meeting, LaMarcus Aldridge dominated inside with a game-high 33 points and 12 rebounds, and San Antonio will continue to lean on him offensively in this series.

Why the Warriors Can Cover the Spread

The Warriors did not have Curry, Kevin Durant and Klay Thompson available for their most recent meeting with San Antonio, plus Draymond Green injured his pelvis in the second quarter and did not return. That is a lot of offensive firepower, and three of that quartet will be back playing in Game 1 at home.

Golden State's home-court advantage also remains one of the best in the league even though the team performed equally well on the road. Before failing to cover in the teams' past two meetings, the Warriors went 3-0 against the spread in the previous three, winning those games by an average of more than 16 points.

Smart Betting Pick

Bettors will be curious to see how Golden State performs in this spot after going 7-10 straight up down the stretch and 6-15 ATS dating back to February 28.

The Warriors miss Curry, but Durant is more than capable of picking up the slack with his scoring. The key to covering will be on the defensive end, which is where the Spurs are at a much bigger disadvantage. Take Golden State to cover in a Game 1 rout.

NBA betting trends

San Antonio is 1-4 ATS in its past five games.

San Antonio is 0-5 ATS in its past five games on the road.

Golden State is 6-15 ATS in its past 21 games.

All NBA odds and betting trends according to Bleacher Report's official odds partner, OddsShark. Check out OddsShark on Twitter and Instagram or head to YouTube for more betting picks and analysis on this week's top games. You can also download the free odds tracker app.