J.P. Arencibia: 2010 Sleeper or Waiver-Wire Fodder?

As we get ready to roll out our early dynasty rankings for 2010, I thought now would be a good time to take a look at J.P. Arencibia, one of the Blue Jays' top prospects and a potentially big-hitting catcher. 

It’s been about a year since we looked at him (click here to view), coming off a year in which he hit .298 with 27 home runs and 105 RBI between Single-A and Double-A. Let’s take a look at how he followed up on it at Triple-A in 2009:

466 AB
.236 AVG (110 Hits)
21 HR
75 RBI
67 R
0 SB
.284 OBP
.444 SLG
.269 BABIP

He’s a free swinger, and the concerns I had regarding his strikeout rate certainly were exposed at Triple-A, whiffing 24.5 percent of the time (114 strikeouts). Granted, even with that type of rate, he should be able to maintain a higher average than he did, but he was plagued by terrible luck.

Of players with at least 490 plate appearances in the major leagues in 2009, only eight posted a BABIP of .269 or worse, including Ian Kinsler and Jimmy Rollins, two players expected to have big rebounds in 2010. It’s a safe assumption that his luck will improve, but you still would like to see a significantly better performance in the strikeout department.

Another thing to look at for the right-handed hitter is his ability to hit against right-handed pitchers. In 2009 he hit just .227 in 352 at-bats. In 2008 it was significantly better, at .301 (though it did come courtesy of a .340 BABIP). Like his 2009 BABIP, you would expect him to be better moving forward.

He can never be counted on as a top fantasy option unless you can expect at least a .260 average from him. While he should improve, I can’t expect that right now because of the Ks.

The power appears to still be there, but that is slightly misleading. He had fits and starts all year, hitting eight home runs in both May and August but just five home runs over the other four months.

He did have 32 doubles on the season, along with a 52.5 percent fly ball rate, so there is reason for some hope. The doubles correspond to what he did in 2008, where he hit 36 of them, so there really shouldn’t be a question if there is pop in his bat.

The hope is that he can maintain the power at the higher levels if there is a decrease in his fly ball rate. In 2008 his rate was 46.6 percent. There were only three players in the major leagues who posted a fly ball rate of at least 52.5 percent, so the likelihood is that he regresses there.

If he can hit for power with fewer fly balls, like he did in 2008, it should correspond to a better average. It’s a lot easier to get lucky on a line drive or find a hole on a groundball, as opposed to when you put the ball in the air.

That’s where his value will ultimately lie, in his ability to continue to hit for power, but not while simply trying to hit the long ball. If he can do that and prove that he can hit .260 to .270 with 20 homers in the major leagues, he is going to be a must-use catcher in all formats.

Can he get there in 2010? 

We’ll have to wait and see, but he certainly will be starting the year at Triple-A until he proves he can. As soon as he does, he should be up and given an opportunity in Toronto making him a player to have on all fantasy radars.

For now, his only value really lays in deep keeper leagues and dynasty leagues, but come mid-May that could all change.

What are your thoughts? Is Arencibia a player you have your eye on? Do you think he can contribute in 2010?

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