NBA Playoff Picture 2018: Bracket, Early Odds and Predictions for Final Teams
If you think the Golden State Warriors are still the NBA championship favorites, this is as good a time as any to put your money where your mind is.
While they're still the favorite to go title-parading later this summer, their -110 odds (bet $110 to win $100) are the lowest they've been all season, per OddsShark.
They limped to the finish line without two-time MVP Stephen Curry (sprained MCL) and haven't looked very champion-like for the last month, as The Athletic's Anthony Slater observed:
Still, the Dubs and their familiar Finals foe, the Cleveland Cavaliers (+600), are the favorites in their respective conferences, even though neither enters the postseason as a top seed.
Golden State finished seven games back of the Houston Rockets, while the Cavs drew the East's fourth seed with a 50-32 record—their worst since LeBron James' return.
Here's a look at the playoff bracket, followed by championship odds for all 16 teams and predictions for the two conference champions.
2018 Playoff Bracket
Eastern Conference
No. 1 Toronto Raptors vs. No. 8 Washington Wizards
No. 4 Cleveland Cavaliers vs. No. 5 Indiana Pacers
No. 3 Philadelphia 76ers vs. No. 6 Miami Heat
No. 2 Boston Celtics vs. No. 7 Milwaukee Bucks
Western Conference
No. 1 Houston Rockets vs. No. 8 Minnesota Timberwolves
No. 4 Oklahoma City Thunder vs. No. 5 Utah Jazz
No. 3 Portland Trail Blazers vs. No. 6 New Orleans Pelicans
No. 2 Golden State Warriors vs. No. 7 San Antonio Spurs
2018 NBA Championship Odds
Golden State Warriors: -110
Houston Rockets: +130
Cleveland Cavaliers: +600
Toronto Raptors: +750
Boston Celtics: +1500
Oklahoma City Thunder: +2500
Portland Trail Blazers: +2500
San Antonio Spurs: +4000
Philadelphia 76ers: +4000
Indiana Pacers: +5000
Washington Wizards: +5000
Utah Jazz: +5800
Minnesota Timberwolves: +6500
New Orleans Pelicans: +6500
Milwaukee Bucks: +6500
Miami Heat: +8000
Predictions for Final Teams
Eastern Conference
You know when it's a good time to ride the hot hand? When that hot hand has been searing despite being without its best player.
That's the case for the Philadelphia 76ers, who haven't had All-Star center Joel Embiid since late March (orbital bone fracture) and still enter the Big Dance on a franchise-record 16-game winning streak.
Dating back to the All-Star break, Philly leads the East in net efficiency (plus-10.7), assist percentage (70.1), true shooting percentage (58.0, tied with the Toronto Raptors) and rebounding percentage (53.1).
Embiid's injury creates some apprehension with picking the Sixers, as he said it's "unlikely" he'll be ready for the playoff opener, per ESPN.com. But the team's top scorer (22.9 points per game), rebounder (11.0) and shot-blocker (1.8) doesn't anticipate being out much longer.
"I want to play but right now I feel like I'm not ready yet," he said. "It's getting there. I've got to keep working every day. With the way it's been progressing, I'm hopeful I'll be back soon."
With the way the Sixers are rolling, there's no need to rush him.
They have a nightly triple-double threat in 6'10" floor general Ben Simmons, who's averaged 15.6 points on 61.1 percent shooting, 9.5 rebounds and 9.3 assists since Embiid went down. Sharpshooters J.J. Redick (42.0 percent), Dario Saric (39.3) and Marco Belinelli (38.5) rarely miss their mark.
And Markelle Fultz, last summer's top selection, delivered a historic performance in the season finale:
The top-seeded Raptors have wilted under playoff pressure before. The Cavs still have LeBron, but this looks like his worst supporting cast since before he bolted to South Beach. The Boston Celtics don't have Kyrie Irving (or, for that matter, Gordon Hayward).
Granted, Philly's core is breaking new ground with the franchise's first playoff trip since 2012. But the front office has done a masterful job of adding veterans through free agency (Redick, Amir Johnson) and the buyout market (Belinelli, Ersan Ilyasova).
Whether you #TrustTheProcess or don't trust the conference's other top seeds, the Sixers are the pick to escape the East.
Western Conference
Is this as vulnerable as the Warriors have looked during Steve Kerr's tenure? Without question. If their recent skid hadn't already made that clear, their flop in their season-ending 119-79 loss to the Utah Jazz hammered the point home.
As ESPN Stats & Info pointed out, it was their worst statistical performance under Kerr:
The more important question, though, is this: Does it matter at all for the postseason? Even the Dubs don't seem to know.
"There should always be a question in your mind if that switch is going to flip," Draymond Green said, per Slater. "... Nonetheless, if anyone's capable of it, we are."
This all hinges on Curry's health. Golden State should have enough to get past the San Antonio Spurs without him, if needed. The second round could be trickier if he's not close to 100 percent.
Still, don't the champs deserve the benefit of the doubt?
The Warriors steamrolled teams by 14.7 points per 100 possessions with Curry on the court. He's the one who makes this offense unguardable, as he demands constant attention (usually from all five defenders) and therefore pulls it away from Kevin Durant and Klay Thompson, both 20-plus-point scorers this season and last.
Besides, it's not like Curry was the only one missing in action down the stretch. That choppy 17-game finish saw Green miss four games, Durant sidelined six times and Thompson absent from eight. Plus, motivation was minimal, as Golden State virtually conceded the top seed once Curry went down.
The turnaround potential is real, and it's spectacular. There's a reason Vegas remains on the Warriors' side.
As dominant as the Houston Rockets have been, they lose the numbers game to the Warriors in stars and two-way players. And it's not like the playoff resumes of James Harden, Chris Paul and Mike D'Antoni inspire the most confidence.
Outside of Houston, who's challenging Golden State? The other six teams have been inconsistent and show major warts.
It wouldn't be fun facing the Utah Jazz's second-ranked defense, but their offense is hit or miss. The Oklahoma City Thunder and Minnesota Timberwolves have yet to play to their potential. The San Antonio Spurs don't have their best player. The New Orleans Pelicans are missing an All-Star. The Portland Trail Blazers follow the lead of a worse backcourt than the full-strength Splash Brothers.
As an added bonus, it's possible all three of Golden State's primary Western Conference threats fell on the opposite side of the bracket—Houston, Oklahoma City and Utah.
If you want to deem the Warriors something less than invincible, that's fine. But if you want to label them as anything other than the favorites, you're on your own. As long as Curry comes back OK, Golden State will find a way to its fourth straight Finals.
Statistics used courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com and NBA.com. Odds obtained via OddsShark.
