High Seeds from 2018 NCAA Tournament in Danger of Missing 2019 Big Dance

Building an NCAA tournament-caliber team is challenging enough, but programs strive to sustain that success for multiple years in a row.

Progression isn't always linear, however. The 68-team March Madness field always has changeover, and several high-seeded schools this season might not return to the Big Dance in 2019.

This piece focuses on the highest seeds in danger of falling off the men's tournament radar. It's essential to remember this is an extremely early look at rosters, and both transfers and early NBA draft entries could affect a roster positively or negatively.

Consequently, these outlooks are based on each team's current status, so any draft declarations—even those players without an agent—are considered a potential loss.

Rhode Island Rams

Stew Milne/Associated Press

2018 NCAA tournament seed: No. 7

Thanks to a 51-18 record over the last two seasons combined, the core of the 2017-18 Rhode Island roster helped the program post its most successful multiyear run in nearly two decades.

But the Rams will look a lot different in 2018-19.

In addition to head coach Dan Hurley leaving for Connecticut, Rhode Island is losing a handful of important seniors. Jared Terrell—the leading scorer—E.C. Matthews, Andre Berry and Stanford Robinson were regular starters. Jarvis Garrett was a key piece off the bench.

Jeff Dowtin and Fatts Russell give the Rams a decent duo to build around, but they'll undergo a rebuilding year next season.

Houston Cougars

Jamie Squire/Getty Images

2018 NCAA tournament seed: No. 6

Four of Houston's rotation players were seniors, and nobody on the team offered a larger impact than Rob Gray.

The electric guard carried the Cougars with team-high marks of 19.3 points and 4.4 assists per game, and his 39-point explosion lifted them past San Diego State in the first round of the NCAA tournament.

Along with Gray, leading rebounder Devin Davis, Wes VanBeck and Nura Zanna exhausted their eligibility. The quartet accounted for nearly half of Houston's points in 2017-18.

Corey Davis Jr. and Armoni Brooks should keep the Cougars competitive next season, but the departures of Gray and Davis will leave significant voids.

Miami Hurricanes

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2018 NCAA tournament seed: No. 6

The Miami Hurricanes are one of the most volatile teams of the offseason.

As things stand, versatile guard Bruce Brown and sophomore forward Dewan Huell have declared for June 21's draft. It would be stunning if Lonnie Walker doesn't do the same, though it's possible he follows in his teammates' footsteps and does not hire an agent.

Should they all leave—in addition to senior Ja'Quan Newton—the Hurricanes will see the roster severely thinned. The 2018 recruiting class has zero commits, so the only additions would be Mount St. Mary's transfer Miles Wilson and any graduate transfer.

Chris Lykes, Dejan Vasiljevic, Wilson, Anthony Lawrence, Ebuka Izundu and Sam Waardenburg might not be enough to survive the ACC.

If either Brown or Walker returns, the narrative changes because its backcourt wouldn't be precariously thin. But for now, the 'Canes have a concerning outlook in 2018-19.

Wichita State Shockers

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2018 NCAA tournament seed: No. 4

On the bright side for Wichita State, Markis McDuffie will return next season along with Austin Reaves.

But that's about it.

Landry Shamet declared for the NBA draft and hired an agent. Shaquille Morris, Conner Frankamp, Darral Willis Jr., Rashard Kelly, Zach Brown and Rauno Nurger were seniors. That's six members of Wichita's nine-man rotation.

Head coach Gregg Marshall also did an admirable thing when he released prized recruit Alex Lomax from his national letter of intent because Memphis hired his longtime coach Penny Hardaway. But that certainly doesn't help the Shockers on the court.

The incoming recruiting class figures to steady the program in the future, but expecting tourney-level excellence from the freshmen is unfair.

Arizona Wildcats

Ted S. Warren/Associated Press

2018 NCAA tournament seed: No. 4

Arizona hasn't lost 10 games in a season since 2011-12. That six-year streak is likely coming to a close, though.

As expected, DeAndre Ayton is a one-and-done. There's little reason for the potential No. 1 overall pick to stay in Tucson. But both Allonzo Trier and Rawle Alkins announced they intend to hire an agent.

Dusan Ristic and Parker Jackson-Cartwright were both seniors, so Arizona must replace its five leading scorers. The leading returning player, Dylan Smith, averaged 4.3 points, and the Wildcats currently have zero commits in the 2018 class because of Arizona's direct connection to the ongoing FBI investigation.

Duke transfer Chase Jeter will be eligible, and Arizona should aggressively pursue grad transfers. But even a regular mention in the bubble conversation could be a successful year for the 'Cats.

Texas Tech Red Raiders

Brandon Wade/Associated Press

2018 NCAA tournament seed: No. 3

Remember how progression isn't always linear? That's important for Texas Tech fans to remember.

Chris Beard undeniably has the Red Raiders on the right path. In only his second season, the program advanced to the Elite Eight for the first time ever and won 27 games.

But an immediate return to March Madness is a tough ask. Leading scorer Keenan Evans was a senior. So were Zach Smith, Justin Gray, Tommy Hamilton and Niem Stevenson. Standout freshman and potential first-round pick Zhaire Smith has declared for the NBA draft.

The Red Raiders will have to lean on Jarrett Culver, Brandon Francis and Norense Odiase to navigate a steadily improving Big 12.

Purdue Boilermakers

Charles Krupa/Associated Press

2018 NCAA tournament seed: No. 2

The Boilermakers could lose every starter from a roster that set a single-season program record with 30 victories.

Isaac Haas, Vince Edwards, Dakota Mathias and P.J. Thompson all used up their eligibility, and Carsen Edwards has entered the NBA draft. Purdue fans must be prepared for a sharp decline if Edwards decides to hire an agent and pursue the pros.

Yes, the Boilers have a proven player on the way. Grad transfer Evan Boudreaux averaged at least 17.5 points and 9.4 rebounds in each his two seasons at Dartmouth.

However, that's an enormous amount of production to replace, and the Big Ten—namely Maryland, Penn State and Wisconsin—should be much stronger.

Xavier Musketeers

Mark Humphrey/Associated Press

2018 NCAA tournament seed: No. 1

"This dude is nuts. How could a top-seeded team possibly miss the NCAA tournament one year later?"

I hear you, but this isn't without precedent.

Florida, the No. 1 overall seed in the 2014 tourney, tumbled to 16-17 the following year. The Gators needed to replace three of their four double-digit scorers and another starter. Xavier is set to lose all three double-digit producers plus Sean O'Mara.

Additionally, after head coach Chris Mack accepted the Louisville job, Boudreaux flipped his commitment to Purdue.

The resulting pressure on Quentin Goodin, Kaiser Gates, Naji Marshall and Paul Scruggs is enormous. And in the Big East with a first-year coach, it's not unrealistic to have major concerns.

Stats via Sports-Reference and NCAA.com unless otherwise noted. Follow Bleacher Report writer David Kenyon on Twitter @Kenyon19_BR.