NBA Playoff Picture 2018: Reviewing Latest Bracket Scenarios for East, West
Consider these next couple of weeks the touch-up phase of the NBA's 2018 playoff picture.
So much of it has already come into focus, at least as far as which teams will be participating.
Seven playoff berths have already been claimed. Another eight clubs have postseason probabilities of 94 percent or greater. And the only current playoff team sitting below that mark (Utah Jazz, 78.8 percent) has posted the Association's second-highest net efficiency rating since the All-Star break (plus-9.3).
It's likely we already know which 16 squads are in, even if there's some chance of movement between now and when the campaign closes on April 11. What we're less certain of is how the bracket will take shape, although a look at the current standings allows us to see the most intriguing first-round scenarios if everything holds to form.
Updated NBA Standings
Eastern Conference
1. x-Toronto Raptors: 54-20
2. x-Boston Celtics: 50-23
3. x-Cleveland Cavaliers: 44-29
4. x-Philadelphia 76ers: 42-30
5. x-Indiana Pacers: 43-31
6. Washington Wizards: 40-33
7. Milwaukee Bucks: 39-34
8. Miami Heat: 39-35
9. Detroit Pistons: 33-40
10. Charlotte Hornets: 33-41
11. e-New York Knicks: 27-47
12. e-Chicago Bulls: 24-49
13. e-Brooklyn Nets: 23-51
14. e-Orlando Magic: 22-51
15. e-Atlanta Hawks: 21-52
Western Conference
1. y-Houston Rockets: 59-14
2. y-Golden State Warriors: 54-19
3. Portland Trail Blazers: 45-28
4. Oklahoma City Thunder: 44-31
5. New Orleans Pelicans: 43-31
6. San Antonio Spurs: 43-31
7. Minnesota Timberwolves: 42-32
8. Utah Jazz: 42-32
9. Denver Nuggets: 40-33
10. Los Angeles Clippers: 39-34
11. Los Angeles Lakers: 32-40
12. e-Sacramento Kings: 24-50
13. e-Dallas Mavericks: 22-51
14. e-Memphis Grizzlies: 19-54
15. e-Phoenix Suns: 19-55
*x-clinched a playoff spot; y-clinched a division title; e-eliminated from playoff contention
Most Intriguing First-Round Pairings
No. 1 Houston Rockets vs. No. 8 Utah Jazz
If you're a fan of sports cliches, this series is for you.
It's the proverbial clash of the unstoppable force and the immovable object. The Houston Rockets' attack isn't merely this season's best, it's one of the most-efficient units we've ever seen. And while the Utah Jazz "only" sit third in season-long defensive efficiency, they're top of the list in this calendar year and almost five points better than anyone per 100 possessions in March.
And here's the kicker—they think they're only getting started.
"I think we have a good defense," Jazz center Rudy Gobert said, per Tony Jones of the Salt Lake Tribune. "But we have a long way to go. We have a lot of ways we can improve."
Among lineups that have logged 100-plus minutes together, Houston has three of the league's four most efficient on offense. Using that same qualifier, Utah's Ricky Rubio-Donovan Mitchell-Joe Ingles-Jae Crowder-Gobert quintet has been the stingiest with a minuscule 85.7 defensive rating.
To be clear, the Rockets would (and should) be favored to advance. They have better balance (seventh-ranked defense to Utah's 16th-ranked offense) and superior stars.
But if these seeds hold, don't discount this as the typical 1-8 matchup. The Rockets and Jazz rank first and second, respectively, in net efficiency rating since the All-Star break.
No. 3 Cleveland Cavaliers vs. No. 6 Washington Wizards
The Cleveland Cavaliers went almost unscathed through the Eastern Conference playoff bracket last season, losing just once en route to LeBron James' annual NBA Finals appearance.
The Washington Wizards felt that wouldn't have been the case had they drawn the King and Co.
"Cleveland didn't want to see us," Wizards guard Bradley Beal said in last year May, via NBA.com. "I always said that. I felt like that's a reason they didn't play us in the second round. ... They knew we would give that competitiveness and that challenge."
It was all a moot point, of course, since Washington was bounced by the Boston Celtics a round before it would have locked horns with Cleveland. But at least it showed the Wizards weren't fazed by James' near decade-long stranglehold on the East.
The Wizards don't exactly resemble a menacing threat right now. They've lost eight of their last 12 games and don't have a top-10 efficiency rating on offense (11th) or defense (14th).
But they do seem close to getting All-Star floor general John Wall back after January knee surgery and secured a 110-103 victory the last time these teams met.
Maybe that doesn't translate to a close series. But when you combine Washington's bravado with James' numerous playoff battles against the franchise along the way, this would at least warrant circling on the first-round calendar.
No. 2 Golden State Warriors vs. No. 7 Minnesota Timberwolves
This potential first-round collision might intrigue more for what it won't have than what it will.
Or whom it won't have, rather. Two-time MVP Stephen Curry suffered a sprained MCL on Friday, and head coach Steve Kerr thinks, "There's no way he's playing in the first round," per KNBR:
Compounding that issue is the fact none of Golden State's four All-Stars are presently healthy. The other three missed Sunday's 110-91 home loss to Utah with Kevin Durant battling a rib fracture, Klay Thompson dealing with a fractured thumb and Draymond Green having a pelvic contusion.
The defending champs were paced in points Sunday by two-way contract player Quinn Cook, the lone starter to shoot better than 34 percent.
The supporting stars have time to heal, but if their primary puzzle piece is missing, they no longer look indestructible.
"Western Conference foes will be licking their chops at the chance to battle a vulnerable Warriors roster lacking their best offensive player," The Ringer's Kevin O'Connor wrote. "If the Warriors' season once felt like an inevitable coronation, it's starting to resemble a bad dream with an endless amount of outcomes."
Under the current scenario, Golden State could be catching a Minnesota Timberwolves team on the rise.
For starters, All-Star swingman Jimmy Butler is aiming to return from right knee surgery before the season ends. Head coach Tom Thibodeau's star pupil, Butler simultaneously serves as Minnesota's best defender and top scorer. The Wolves are 12.8 points better per 100 possessions when he plays.
They also have the potential to grow without him. No one plays a softer schedule down the stretch, per Tankathon.com, as only one of their final eight opponents occupies a playoff spot.
It's possible Curry still crashes this party—he's holding out hope—or Golden State has enough without him. But if the Warriors are breaking down as the Timberwolves are adding an All-Star reinforcement, this might be two teams trending in opposite directions.
Statistics used courtesy of NBA.com and Basketball-Reference.
