NBA Teams That Should Sell at the 2018 Trade Deadline
There comes a point every year when some NBA teams take honest looks in the mirror and tell themselves, "You're just not that good. You're not going to make the playoffs."
Some teams knew that going in. Some found it out over the course of the first 50-plus games. Some have had it laid upon them by injuries.
The ones listed here need to get real and sell at the trade deadline.
I have excluded teams already in tank mode. For example, the Phoenix Suns (Tyson Chandler) and Chicago Bulls (Robin Lopez), are already intending to sell. And you won't find the Los Angeles Clippers here, since they're still in the playoff picture out West.
Let's address teams that might be on the fence.
Utah Jazz
The Utah Jazz were hit with all kinds of adversity through the offseason and the regular season. First, they saw Gordon Hayward bolt for the Boston Celtics. Then Rudy Gobert, their Defensive Player of the Year candidate, got injured, missed 11 games, played six, then missed another 15.
On top of all that, they've had the second-toughest schedule.
In some ways, they've overcome a lot of that. Based on Basketball Reference's Simple Rating System (a schedule-adjusted ranking which also includes margin of victory), they're still a top-10 team. But records matter here, not ratings, and the Jazz are just 24-28.
Donovan Mitchell has been extraordinary, and the Jazz should be giddy about him (and they are). But someone like Derrick Favors is obviously not part of the future, so if they can get something—anything—for him that contributes to that, they should go for it.
My concern here isn't that they aren't open to trading, but that their recent success might keep them from doing it.
The Jazz have won five straight, but they shouldn't let that go to their heads. Even if they work their way into the playoffs, they probably just earn a first-round exit.
Tony Jones of the Salt Lake Tribune expects that the Jazz will trade Favors if they can.
Marc Stein of the New York Times reported that Joe Johnson is also "angling behind the scenes for a trade out of Utah."
Anything the Jazz can get for a piece that won't be around next season is a move they should make.
New York Knicks
The New York Knicks started off the season much better than expected but have been dropping out of contention over the last several weeks. They began 16-13, but since then, they're 7-18. The latter is more indicative of who they are.
Kristaps Porzingis is the future of the franchise, but he's going to need a lot more help, and the Knicks do have at least one player who a few teams could be interested in: Courtney Lee.
The Oklahoma City Thunder struggled since they lost defensive ace Andre Roberson. That shouldn't be surprising, since their defensive rating is 11.9 points worse when he sits this season, per NBA.com. They should be in the market for a three-and-d wing guy like Lee.
However, Marc Berman of the New York Post reported:
"The Knicks won't move [Lee] unless significant value comes back."
I don't know what "significant value" means here, but if it means taking a bad contract and getting a first-round pick, the Knicks should do it. They need to make sure their eyes don't get bigger than their stomachs. The reality is that Lee isn't worth that much.
It's a seller's market, and hopefully, the Knicks are just trying to drive up the asking price here. But there's not much chance they get back more for him. The other benefit of trading him is tank value.
Charlotte Hornets
The Charlotte Hornets are better than their record suggests. According to NBA.com, they have a better net rating than the Cleveland Cavaliers (0.0 to minus-0.4). That's all splendid when you're talking about how records can be deceptive, but the playoffs aren't determined by net rating.
According to Basketball Reference, the Hornets have a 14.6 percent chance of making the playoffs. That's too slim to gamble on, particularly since that doesn't include the fact that the Detroit Pistons just landed Blake Griffin.
Rick Bonnell of the Charlotte Observer discussed the various aspects of trading Kemba Walker and concluded:
"You can't trade Walker for anything short of a no-brainer deal that brings in another All-Star-quality player and still fixes the salary-cap mess that exists now and next season, too. And I don't see such a miracle deal presenting itself before the Feb. 8 trade deadline."
While I agree that no such deal exists before the trade deadline, I'm skeptical that it's even a remotely realistic ask.
Walker is the most popular Hornet and arguably one of the franchises five all-time-greatest players. He's top-five in almost everything. Then again, he's a borderline All-Star and he's never won a playoff series.
The Hornets are in danger of overvaluing their asset to the detriment of their future. Walker is on a cheap $12 million annual contract through next season, according to Basketball Insiders. That adds to his value, particularly in a market where so many teams are already capped out.
The Hornets might be better than their record reflects, but their record also reflects that they're nowhere good enough to contend this year or probably next. They're going to have to get worse to get better, and Walker is the best asset to acquire something for the future.
If they can get two first-round picks for him, they should go for it.
Memphis Grizzlies
The Memphis Grizzlies have the toughest decision to make. Their fall out of contention this year has a lot to do with losing Mike Conley, who will be back next year, so there is an argument to just hold the fort until then.
Marc Gasol is arguably the greatest player in their history, and he's only ever worn a Grizzlies uniform. He is Memphis' all-time leader in minutes, win shares, box plus-minus and is first or second in a whole bunch of other things.
So just shipping him off to another team would be kind of hard for both the team and the fans to accept. If they did decide to move him, Gasol would accept it, according to Zach Lowe of ESPN. "If they think it is best, I would do anything for this franchise," Gasol said.
However, Lowe also mentioned that the front office is "adamant that is unlikely."
Still, the Grizzlies should remain open. If, for instance, the Cavaliers come calling with the Brooklyn Nets' pick, they must hear them out. If they can parlay two years of Gasol into (at least) seven years of the next franchise player, it makes sense.
The Grizzlies are also shopping Tyreke Evans, and per Adrian Wojnarowski of ESPN. "The organization plans to sit him out until a deal is completed," he reported.
Bundling Evans and Gasol together would make quite a package deal, arguably enough to reboot a franchise with, and should yield multiple firsts and a few rotation players.
All stats and records are up-to-date through games played Sunday, Feb. 4
