LeBron to the Warriors? As Unlikely as It Sounds, Here's How It Could Happen
LOS ANGELES — To the notion of LeBron James joining the Golden State Warriors in free agency this summer, Kevin Durant used an off-color word to dismiss the idea.
A natural reaction. It does sound absurd, but then so did the idea of Durant signing with Golden State in 2016.
After his initial reaction, Durant acknowledged, "In this league, just like a couple of years ago, me coming here, nobody would have thought that."
So then, how can the Warriors work the financial gymnastics yet again to land James in July?
The following analysis isn't a look at why a James-Dubs pairing will happen, but a hypothetical explanation of how it could happen from a salary-cap standpoint.
No Cap Room
This is the least likely scenario that lands James in the Bay Area, but it's one that technically does exist.
Should Durant decline his $26.3 million player option, the Warriors still project to be about $5 million over the NBA's $101 million projected salary cap for the 2018-19 season. If James isn't concerned with getting a maximum salary, he can ink with Golden State via their mid-level exception of either $5.3 million or $8.6 million.
If he's feeling especially generous, he can sign a minimum contract at $2.4 million.
Again, as doubtful as this sounds, we can't ignore facts.
At $8.6 million, the Warriors would be subject to a hard cap at about $129 million, which would limit Durant's salary to stay at no more than $10 million. Durant could get more if Golden State traded away players like Andre Iguodala or Shaun Livingston without salary coming back in return.
If James accepted a $2.4 million or $5.3 million salary, that would enable the Warriors to pay Durant up to $35.4 million without being compelled to deal Iguodala or Livingston.
The likelihood of this happening is slim to none, and we can recognize that. We know James is a charitable human being, but donating his services for what would amount to pennies on Golden State's roster won't take place as long as he's healthy.
Creating Cap Room
The next avenue involves shedding the salaries of Iguodala and Livingston, which would get the Warriors to about $17.3 million under the cap. That won't be especially helpful. James and Durant would have to split that amount, say $8.2 million apiece. Or one could get the full $17.3 million and the other the Warriors' $4.4 million room exception.
To get both James and Durant bigger salaries, Golden State would also need to dump one of Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson or Draymond Green. Or if Durant leaves for another team, James could take the $17.3 million—but that would only be there if the Warriors dumped Iguodala and Livingston.
Other than James and/or Durant taking significant discounts, this option also won't be perceived as especially realistic.
Sign-and-Trade
Just about everyone remembers James' "Decision" to go to the Miami Heat in 2010, but how many can recall that the Cavaliers executed a sign-and-trade to send his talents to South Beach?
If history repeats and James is preparing to leave for another franchise, Cleveland can try to pry assets away from the Warriors by facilitating a sign-and-trade.
Golden State could offer Iguodala, who has two years left on his contract at $33.2 million after this season, and Livingston who has $10.3 million of his $16 million guaranteed through 2019-20. The Warriors might need to give the Cavaliers incentives, be it in draft considerations or in players like Jordan Bell and/or Damian Jones.
That would be enough to pay James almost $35 million, but it creates another issue, locking in the Warriors at that hard cap at $129 million. Durant and James at almost $70 million, along with Curry and Klay Thompson, is well over that figure.
Still, Durant and James could near $20 million each with help from the Cavaliers via a James sign-and-trade.
Also, note that a sign-and-trade situation would never be about the Cavs getting back a fair deal. Of course they'd want a superstar in return, but James holds all the leverage if he's told owner Dan Gilbert he plans to sign with the Warriors.
After all, when the Cavaliers traded James to Miami, their return haul comprised just four future draft picks (and the ability to swap for a more favorable one) and a traded player exception.
James Opts In
Finally, if the Cavaliers are willing to trade with Golden State, James could choose to opt into the final year of his contract at $35.6 million, and then Cleveland can ask for the players listed above (Iguodala, Livingston, Bell and Jones) and any draft considerations necessary for a deal.
One complication: That's not enough for the Warriors to match salary. A simple solution for Golden State would be to sign an additional veteran before the end of the season to a guaranteed minimum deal through 2018-19 to be included in a July trade.
Golden State could land James and still pay Durant his full price without any hard cap to worry about. Of course, the team would be looking at luxury tax.
With James, Durant (at about his max), Curry, Thompson, Green and nine players on minimum contracts, the Warriors would have a roster payroll of about $160 million. A team salary that high would cost an additional $119.3 million in taxes—or $279.3 million total.
The Warriors would be able to re-sign any of their pending free agents and would still have their $5.3 million mid-level exception to add depth, but if they inched their payroll up to $170 million, the tax bill jumps to $176.3 million—or $346.3 million in total.
Durant's aforementioned expletive is apropos at that price.
Any discount Durant wants to give to help the Warriors keep their payroll and depth at a manageable level would make a major difference, but James would be locked in at his option.
All quotes were obtained firsthand unless otherwise noted. Email Eric Pincus at eric.pincus@gmail.com and follow him on Twitter @EricPincus.
