Bowl Projections 2017: CFP Predictions, Postseason Outlook Heading into Week 12
The College Football Playoff picture looks a whole lot different heading into Week 12 than it did just one week ago. Three top-10 matchups did some serious tectonic-plate shifting as the picture became more clear in some ways, yet distinctly fuzzy in others.
On paper, Week 12 shouldn't have nearly the same effect.
There are no Top 25 matchups on the slate, which means if we get any serious changes to the pecking order, it's because someone got upset. That's possible, of course—just ask Washington who is no longer the Pac-12's great last hope who got upset by Stanford.
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The weekly playoff rankings might be a frivolous exercise. It's difficult to know what they mean when the committee can shuffle the deck once the resume's are finalized on Dec. 3.
What is worthwhile is looking into the future and projecting who will possibly be playing in the semifinal once the dust settles on the conference championship games. Here's a look at one scenario.
Projected College Football Playoff
- Alabama Crimson Tide
- Clemson Tigers
- Oklahoma Sooners
- Ohio State Buckeyes
The Lock: Alabama Crimson Tide
There's only one team that's been invited to the party in all three College Football Playoffs: The Alabama Crimson Tide. Nick Saban's crew has been the No. 1 seed twice and went as the No. 2 team in between. This year, they are once again in the driver's seat to play for the National Championship.
The Tide showed some mortality against Mississippi State last week. They gave up three rushing touchdowns as the Bulldogs had a chance to tie or win the game as the clock expired with a Hail Mary.
In a season where multiple playoff contenders have been upset on the road, it's a testament to Alabama that it could leave Starkville with the W.
The road to the playoff has two major hurdles, though. First is the Iron Bowl to end the season at Auburn. The second will be a conference championship game that will ostensibly be against Georgia.
The Iron Bowl has lost its competitiveness recently. Bama has won seven of the last nine meetings with six of those wins coming by double-digits. Auburn is obviously a dangerous team coming off a 40-17 drubbing of Georgia, but Saban's history against Malzahn is favorable.
Saban has also found similar success in the SEC Championship game. Alabama has won the last five SEC Championship games they have played in, with their last loss coming in 2008 to a Tim Tebow-led Florida Gators team.
It's two high-risk games against quality opponents in Auburn and Georgia, but it's still hard to pick against Saban and the Tide.
The Conference Champions: Clemson and Oklahoma
Because the committee feels the need to stir the pot every week, the biggest debate surrounding the rankings right now is Clemson vs. Miami. Both ACC schools are in the top four right now, but the fact that the one-loss Clemson Tigers are ahead of an undefeated Miami has some 'Canes fans downright mad online.
It's a frivolous argument, though.
The two schools will play each other in the ACC Championship Game on Dec. 2, thus alleviating the committee from having to choose sides. The game itself should be awesome. Miami is fifth in Football Outsiders' F/+ rankings while Clemson comes in at No. 9.
It comes down to personal preference in picking the game, but Miami's reliance on forcing turnovers is a bit disconcerting. Clemson has only committed 11 turnovers this season, which puts them in the Top 25 for fewest turnovers on the season.
Either way, the ACC champion is a good bet for the second seed. Clemson by virtue of the committee already being impressed by what they've done and Miami because they are undefeated and ranked right behind them right now.
The committee—who quite enjoy coming up with different criteria for every team they rank—wasn't impressed with Oklahoma for losing to Iowa State (even if Clemson's loss was to Syracuse).
Again, this is frustrating, but it's all going to play out. Oklahoma still controls its destiny, and with Kansas and a ranked West Virginia team still left on the slate, the Sooners should be heavy favorites in both of those games.
From there, they will likely see a rematch with Oklahoma State or TCU, two teams that would earn them even more points with the committee. With few one-loss teams left, the committee will be hard pressed to pass on a one-loss champion from either the ACC or the Big 12.
Lurking in the Shadows: Ohio State
You'd think a loss in which you give up 55 points to Iowa would be enough to eliminate you from playoff contention.
But it probably isn't so with the Buckeyes. Through three years the Buckeyes have been invited to the tournament any year they've had a case. The lone exception was when the committee was forced to take Michigan State instead because the Spartans were the conference champion and won the conference.
If there's a case to be made for Ohio State, athletic director Gene Smith is on the committee. It's going to be heard.
If Ohio State wins out, they'll have a case because the committee—just like any other fan—has a recency bias. A 55-24 loss to Iowa is bad, but there's enough time that it can be conveniently forgotten with emphatic wins over Michigan and Wisconsin in the Big Ten title game.
Head coach Urban Meyer isn't going to let them look ahead, either. He's emphasizing a one-game-at-a-time approach as his team tries to get back in the race.
“There will be zero conversation around here,” Meyer said about the team's playoff talk, per Stephen Pianovich of Land of 10. “Especially when you talk to the players, there will be zero conversation about what happened before and what’s going to happen in the future. Zero.”
Last year, the Buckeyes became the first nonconference champion to make the field. The committee loves itself some Ohio State, it would be fitting that they would be the first two-loss team to make the field.
The computers love the Buckeyes. Jeff Sagarin's rankings have them at No. 5 in the nation. They are No. 2 in F/+.
Without a clear-cut No. 4 team, the committee will put in who they want and provide a rationale later. While it looked like the Buckeyes' chances were dead just a few weeks ago, they now are just a few more wins away from being right back into it.
That's just how quickly things can turn in this crazy playoff race.
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