Win-Loss Predictions for Rest of New England Patriots' 2017 Schedule
It may have been a rocky start to the 2017 season for the New England Patriots, but it's difficult to dislike where the team has ended up.
The Patriots are tied with the Pittsburgh Steelers with the best record in the AFC at 7-2. With seven games remaining—one of which is against Pittsburgh—New England has a realistic chance at not only getting back to the postseason but battling for the No. 1 seed in the conference.
Of course, it isn't going to be a cakewalk. The Patriots face five games against AFC East opponents plus a game in Pittsburgh and one in Mexico against the Oakland Raiders.
While New England is still king of the AFC East, division games can be quite unpredictable. It would be foolish to assume the Patriots won't slip up at some point between now and the end of the season—and one mistake could cost New England big in the playoffs.
So how will the rest of the season shake out for the Patriots? We're here to take a look at the remaining schedule and provide game-by-game predictions.
Week 11: At Oakland Raiders (in Mexico City)
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When: Sunday, November 19 at 4:25 p.m. ET
National TV: CBS
The Oakland Raiders were a playoff team in 2016 and a dangerous one at that. This season, they are sitting at 4-5 and in danger of missing the postseason. This makes the Raiders desperate and still dangerous, even if the offense isn't what it was a year ago.
Of course, the fact Oakland's offense isn't one of the league's best—ranked just 16th in scoring with an average of 21.8 points per game—means the Raiders could have trouble exploiting New England's defense.
The Patriots are still ranked dead-last in total defense, allowing an average of 408.3 yards per game. However, they haven't been allowing touchdowns like they did early in the year.
New England allowed an average of 32.0 points per game during the first month of the season but has allowed just 14.4 points per game since.
The Patriots also have the league's most potent offense, which is racking up 409.4 yards per game. That's not good news for Oakland's 26th-ranked defense (361.1 yards per game allowed).
The Raiders haven't been running the ball with any consistency, their offensive line has taken a step back and the explosiveness in the passing game we saw last season isn't always there. Oakland's best chance at winning this game is to outscore the Patriots in a shootout. The firepower just isn't there.
Expect the Raiders to keep things close early, but the Patriots should pull away in the second half.
Prediction: Patriots 34, Raiders 24
Week 12: Vs. Miami Dolphins
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When: Sunday, November 26 at 1 p.m. ET
National TV: CBS
The Miami Dolphins can give the Patriots issues from time to time.
Despite dominating the division year after year, the Patriots are just 4-3 against the Dolphins in their last seven matchups. However, it's worth noting all three of Miami's wins during that stretch have come in Florida.
This game is in Foxborough, though, which gives New England a tangible advantage, as does the matchup itself.
As mentioned, New England is weaker on the defensive side of the ball. However, the Dolphins could have trouble taking advantage of that. They have the worst scoring offense in the NFL, which yields just 15.2 points per game.
Miami's defense—ranked 17th, allowing an average of 341.2 yards per game—is better, but it's frequently put in bad spots because of the poor offense and because of turnovers.
The Dolphins aren't willing to give up, though, and they shouldn't. Even at 4-5, they're very much in the running for the No. 6 seed in the AFC. A win against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 12 can get them right back into the hunt.
"We've got a lot of time left; a lot of ball left," Dolphins coach Adam Gase said, per Alex Donno of CBS Miami.
The Dolphins aren't going to roll over against the Patriots, but this is a complete mismatch for them—especially in New England.
Prediction: Patriots 31, Dolphins 17
Week 13: At Buffalo Bills
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When: Sunday, December 3 at 1 p.m. ET
National TV: CBS
The Patriots don't always have the easiest time playing the Buffalo Bills, but they haven't actually lost in upstate New York since 2011. Don't expect that trend to change this season.
Right now, the Bills are reeling. They looked like a potential playoff team early in the season, but they're coming off two bad losses to the New York Jets and the New Orleans Saints. They've been unable to stop the run, which wasn't the case earlier in the year.
This is a problem because Buffalo's zone-based defense isn't well-equipped to stop Tom Brady and Co.
The Bills don't have the cover corners needed to man up with New England's receivers and bring pressure with the blitz. If Brady has time in the pocket, he's going to slice apart Buffalo's secondary.
The Bills are also turning to rookie quarterback Nathan Peterman, which benefits New England. The Patriots defense hasn't been a shut-down unit, but coordinator Matt Patricia will devise a game plan that makes life rough on the rookie signal-caller.
Expect the Bills to play hard in this game, but they simply do not match up with a Patriots team that is hitting its stride in the second half of the season.
Prediction: Patriots 37, Bills 23
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Week 14: At Miami Dolphins
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When: Monday, December 11 at 8:30 p.m. ET
National TV: ESPN
As mentioned, the Patriots have struggled in Miami in the recent past. This game isn't going to be much different. New England will be in the middle of a three-game road stretch and could easily be looking ahead to the Steelers game.
Don't expect this win to come easily for New England, but it will come. Miami's defense is putrid. Even if Jay Cutler plays well, the Dolphins don't have what it takes to win a shootout with the league's No. 1 offense.
If the Dolphins are going to have a chance in this game, they're going to have to play hard defense and make it an ugly, low-scoring affair. That's exactly what's likely to happen.
The Dolphins will be able to move the ball just enough against New England's inconsistent defense to keep the game close all four quarters. This will allow Miami to play balanced on offense and not lean on Cutler too much.
The Dolphins might even take a lead at some point in the second half, but this will be one of those games where Brady pulls some fourth-quarter magic out of his bag to get the win.
The Patriots know they need to carry momentum into the Pittsburgh game, and they'll ensure they do.
Prediction: Patriots 26, Dolphins 23
Week 15: At Pittsburgh Steelers
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When: Sunday, December 17 at 4:25 p.m. ET
National TV: CBS
The last time the Patriots and the Steelers met, the result was a lopsided 36-17 New England victory. However, we need to recognize a few differences between that game and the one coming in Week 15.
For one, that game was played in Foxborough; this one will be in Pittsburgh. That game saw an early exit by star Steelers running back Le'Veon Bell because of a groin injury. He is fully healthy now and ready to lead the ground attack.
This year's Steelers defense is better than last year's too. The pass rush is better—the Steelers had 38 sacks last year and already have 29 this season.
The pass defense is better as well. Pittsburgh is ranked second in passing yards allowed (181.8 yards per game allowed), total yards allowed (284.4) and scoring (16.4 points per game allowed).
The Steelers have implemented more coverage into their defense, in part to help counter the Patriots.
"With Tom Brady, you can't let him see the same defense too much during the game," Steelers defensive coordinator Keith Butler said, per Lorenzo Reyes of USA Today. "Because if he does, then he's not pulling the ball down, and he's letting the ball go, the timing is all perfect, and he'll eat you up."
Pittsburgh still has to prove it can play man against an elite offense—and it won't help if corner Joe Haden is still out—but the Steelers have been game-planning for the Patriots since last postseason. They'll be hungry to knock off New England, they have the talent to do it, and they'll have home-field advantage.
Expect a game that goes down to the wire, with Ben Roethlisberger and Pittsburgh's explosive passing attack earning the final points.
Prediction: Steelers 31, Patriots 27
Week 16: Vs. Buffalo Bills
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When: Sunday, December 24 at 1 p.m. ET
National TV: CBS
It's worth noting the last two times Buffalo has beaten the Patriots, they have come in Foxborough. However, it's also worth noting the last win came with Jacoby Brissett under center for New England. This should be another hard-fought game between two rivals, but it won't favor the Bills.
As mentioned, Buffalo doesn't match up well with New England. That won't change in the second game between these two teams in a month. Peterman—assuming he's still starting—should be playing better for the Bills but not well enough to match points with Brady.
New England will also be looking for redemption after dropping a game in Pittsburgh. Not only that, but they'll be desperate to win because home-field advantage could go out the window with another loss.
The Gillette Stadium crowd will be firmly behind New England, the team will be focused, and the Bills will be outmatched and stumbling to the finish line of the season.
Prediction: Patriots 31, Bills 17
Week 17: Vs. New York Jets
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When: Sunday, December 31 at 1 p.m. ET
National TV: CBS
With New England having lost the head-to-head matchup to the Steelers, the Patriots still cannot afford to relax, even in the last week of the season. One thing they don't want to do is play another game at Heinz Field in January.
This isn't quite the situation the Jets want if they're trying to end the season on a high note.
New York has fought hard this season and battled the Patriots tough in their last meeting—a 24-17 New England win.
However, the Jets are merely average at best on both offense (26th overall) and defense (21st overall). Their best chance of pulling an upset at Gillette Stadium will be to outwork New England, and that's going to prove tough.
"We're not trying to close the gap," Jets coach Todd Bowles said after their first matchup, per Ben Shpigel of the New York Post.
The Jets came close to getting a win the last time, but by Week 17, the gap between these two teams is going to be sizable. The Patriots have everything to play for in this game. New York has nothing to play for but pride. It's going to be another physical and close contest, but New England will again come out on top.
Prediction: Patriots 27, Jets 21
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