Fantasy Football Week 10 Workload Watch
Trying to figure out backfields that lack superstar talent is a normal exercise in fantasy football. In fact, that's the whole premise of this weekly feature.
While you'll get plenty of that in this week's article, including the problems in Green Bay and Denver, the questions in Atlanta's backfield are starting to turn into major complaints, and with good reason.
Maybe we were spoiled by both Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman finishing the 2016 season as top-20 PPR RBs. But even with lowered expectations for this season, they continue to frustrate fantasy owners as part of one of the NFL's most frustrating teams.
With about a month until the fantasy playoffs get underway, finding clarity is important, even if that's establishing players you can't trust down the stretch. Some situations will remain fluid, while others have given us enough evidence to make a declaration.
To learn more about what's going on in the backfields for the Kansas City Chiefs, Philadelphia Eagles, Tennessee Titans and Seattle Seahawks, check out the Week 10 B.S. Meter. This Workload Watch covers eight other RB situations that have high fantasy implications.
Atlanta Falcons
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Week 9 Workload Distribution
Based on many of your comments over the last few days, the concern for Freeman has reached a fever pitch. Despite a snap advantage over Coleman in every game this season, Freeman has just one 100-yard rushing effort and two games with at least 100 total yards. He also hasn't hit 100 yards from scrimmage since Week 3. Freeman also hasn't been in the end zone since Week 4 and has yet to catch a TD this season. He hasn't had more than 12 carries in the last four games.
Even though Freeman rushed for at least 100 yards just twice last season, he found the end zone 11 times on the ground and twice as a receiver. He also finished with seven games of at least 100 total yards, and his longest streak without a TD was two games. After a top-five PPR RB finish in 2016, Freeman is No. 14 in that category at 14.2 fantasy points per game through nine weeks despite a 114-63 advantage in carries over Tevin Coleman.
Meanwhile, Coleman has been solid in a similar role to what he had in 2016, but he's scoring fewer touchdowns: He has one so far this year after managing eight in 2016. He's the No. 23 PPR RB at 10.7 fantasy points per game, and his 63 carries put him on pace to exceed the 118 he got in 2016. He's 15 receptions away from matching the 31 he had last year, although he did that in just 13 games and piled up 421 yards. This year, he has just 198 yards on 16 receptions and 24 targets. In the last four games, he has just three receptions for 45 yards and a TD on five targets.
Regression was expected for both players, yet the lack of scoring is alarming. Freeman and Coleman combined for 28 red-zone targets and 71 red-zone carries. With a total of seven red-zone targets and 24 red-zone carries, they are on pace to finish with just 14 red-zone targets and 48 red-zone carries.
That drop-off in scoring opportunities is the major difference between the two seasons. While predicting TDs on a weekly basis is a bit of guesswork, those scores are tougher to come by when the chances are cut down by such a significant margin.
Carolina Panthers
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Week 9 Workload Distribution
Before last week, you may have come to the realization that while McCaffrey has been predictably busy as a receiver, his rushing statistics are falling way short of what was expected of him this season. Even though that's disappointing, he's still been a reliable fantasy option in PPR formats if you adjusted expectations.
In Week 9, McCaffrey likely beat out those expectations. He had his best rushing performance of the season on a day when Stewart lost two fumbles on just 11 carries. McCaffrey's 66 yards on 15 carries made for his highest and busiest rushing output, and he had his first rushing TD and third total TD of the season. He posted five receptions for the fifth straight game and seventh time in 2017. McCaffrey continues to lead the team in targets (72), receptions (54) and is tied with Devin Funchess for the team lead with three scores among players not named Cam Newton.
Considering Stewart is averaging just 2.9 yards per carry on nearly double McCaffrey's attempts, maybe the Panthers will think about getting the former Stanford Cardinal a little more involved on the ground, although he's also averaging 2.9 yards per carry. The snap differential between the two in the Panthers' 20-17 win over the Falcons was the largest of the season. McCaffrey's been Carolina's most consistent player this season in both reality and fantasy, so be happy if you have him. Stewart is wasting space on your roster.
Denver Broncos
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Week 9 Workload Distribution
- C.J. Anderson: 35.4% snaps, 9 carries, 13 yards, 0 TD, 1 targets, 0 receptions
- Devontae Booker: 33.8% snaps, 6 carries, 21 yards, 0 TD, 3 targets, 2 receptions, 9 yards, 0 TD
- Jamaal Charles: 30.8% snaps, 4 carries, 1 yard, 0 TD, 4 targets, 4 receptions, 23 yards, 0 TD
A look at that workload should induce nausea. The Denver Broncos decided to split the snaps and touches pretty evenly for Anderson, Booker and Charles while getting destroyed 51-23 by the Philadelphia Eagles. The result was a fantasy mess and another example of why the Broncos are very tough to trust, especially in the backfield.
The Broncos are averaging 4.2 yards per rushing play, which is tied for 11th in the league. However, they are 16th with just 27 rush attempts per game and 19th with just 216 carries on the season. They are an average rushing offense with a three-headed backfield, and that's a recipe for fantasy disaster.
With Brock Osweiler getting another start this week and no real answers at QB, it's hard to use any of these guys with any kind of confidence. Anderson has missed practice time this week with an ankle injury and an illness, so things could be a little cleared up if he can't go against the New England Patriots. Unless Denver decides to feature one of the backs over the next few weeks, this is the type of situation you should steer clear of heading down the stretch.
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Detroit Lions
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Week 9 Workload Distribution
Coming into Week 9, the Green Bay Packers ranked as one of the best matchups for fantasy RBs, so many felt they could fire up Abdullah with confidence despite a mostly underwhelming season. Even though he scored 12.7 fantasy points in PPR formats, the performance hardly inspired confidence.
Abdullah had his busiest workload of the season in only the fourth game he registered 15 or more carries. Unfortunately, he wound up under 50 rushing yards for the fifth time this season. His second rushing TD of 2017 salvaged a solid fantasy outing, but it's hard to consider Abdullah a reliable fantasy option when he can't muster even 50 yards against poor run defense in a game his team controlled throughout. With 74.5 fantasy points and just 9.3 yards per game, Abdullah is the No. 32 fantasy RB in PPR formats, so he's an RB3/flex at best.
Riddick had one of his better fantasy performances of the season thanks to a season-high 62 receiving yards. It was only the fifth time this season he posted four receptions in a game and the third time he had at least 45 receiving yards. He isn't far behind Abdullah with 68.7 fantasy points and 8.6 fantasy points per game as the No. 34 PPR RB.
The Detroit Lions might be playing well, but that hasn't translated to reliable fantasy production out of Abdullah or Riddick. Neither player should be a lock to make your lineup.
Green Bay Packers
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Week 9 Workload Distribution
In the first full game without Aaron Rodgers (the Week 7 loss to the New Orleans Saints), Jones ran for 131 yards and a TD on 17 carries. He also added three receptions for seven yards on five targets while playing 80 percent of the snaps. In that same game, Montgomery played just 13 percent of the snaps, with one reception for nine yards on two targets and four carries for six yards, and Jones looked like the best of Green Bay's backs.
Two weeks later, Jones was useless for fantasy in an ugly loss to the Detroit Lions. He saw a sharp decline in snaps and touches in a game the Lions led 7-0 after the first quarter and 14-3 at halftime. Considering Brett Hundley was struggling, getting away from Jones didn't make much sense, but that seems to go for a lot of the coaching decisions in Green Bay, especially without Rodgers to make up for mistakes.
Wouldn't it make sense for the Packers to feature Montgomery as a receiver playing from behind? The answer is yes, but Montgomery had just a single target despite leading the backfield in snaps. After a hot start, Montgomery is now the No. 30 PPR RB on the season.
According to Rob Demovsky of ESPN.com, head coach Mike McCarthy liked the rotation of Jones and Montgomery, with the plan being to let Montgomery handle third downs. That would make sense if they actually gave Montgomery more than one target. Even though Jones has played well when featured, McCarthy's statement appears to hurt his fantasy value. Without Rodgers, the Packers aren't nearly as appealing for fantasy owners.
Houston Texans
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Week 9 Workload Distribution
- Lamar Miller: 73.2% snaps, 10 carries 57 yards, 0 TD, 4 targets, 3 receptions, 34 yards, 0 TD
- D'Onta Foreman: 28.2% snaps, 11 carries, 37 yards, 0 TD, 1 target, 0 receptions
Foreman found his way back into the mix in Week 9 after featuring in just 1.4 percent of the offensive plays in Week 8. Even though he was way behind Miller in snaps, Foreman wound up with more carries for the first time this season, although the veteran was more productive.
Miller has more than doubled Foreman's carries on the season (129-61) and had a much busier role as a receiver, with 25 targets and 21 receptions to Foreman's five targets and three receptions. Miller has needed the volume to remain a reliable fantasy back, and he's No. 13 in PPR formats for the season. Of course, it was a lot easier to play him when Deshaun Watson was starting instead of Tom Savage.
The Texans are hanging around 3-5, but losing Watson was a huge blow in fantasy and reality, so expectations for Miller should be lowered going forward. Other than matchups with the Arizona Cardinals in Week 11 and San Francisco 49ers in Week 14, they'll face serious playoff contenders the rest of the way. Volume might not be as readily available for Miller, and he could be worth shopping if you can land a player in a more stable situation.
Miami Dolphins
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Week 9 Workload Distribution
The first game without Jay Ajayi was a success for both Drake and Williams. The two split the workload almost evenly in both the pass and run games.
Both players overachieved and ended up finishing among the top-10 fantasy RBs in PPR formats for Week 9. The matchup against the Oakland Raiders was helpful, and with Jay Cutler playing one of his best games of the season, Miami was able to stay competitive in a 27-24 loss. Conditions won't be so favorable every week, including the Week 10 matchup with the Carolina Panthers.
After the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 11, the Dolphins run into a brutal finish over the final six games. They have two matchups against the New England Patriots and Buffalo Bills, a visit from the Denver Broncos and a trip to face the Kansas City in Week 16. That won't make life easy for Miami's offense, so while Drake and Williams played well in their first test without Ajayi, neither player should be considered more than an RB3/flex for the rest of the season.
Washington Redskins
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Week 9 Workload Distribution
Much like Jonathan Stewart scoring his first rushing TD of the year in Week 8, you shouldn't be fooled by Kelley scoring two short TDs to save another awful outing in Week 9.
Kelley posted his third straight game under 20 rushing yards and fifth game of the season with 30 rushing yards or fewer. He salvaged two decent fantasy options over the last two weeks with three TDs, none of which went for more than a yard. If you're looking for a reason to believe in Kelley, he should continue to lead the team in carries and get the majority of the goal-line carries since Perine has been terrible with and without Kelley in the lineup. Still Kelley is nothing more than a desperation fantasy play.
Thompson had a rare off week. Those will happen at times because he doesn't have a big role in the ground game. He still leads the Redskins in targets (46), receptions (35), receiving yards (453), rushing yards (251) and overall TDs (five). He's the No. 9 PPR RB for the season and the No. 12 PPR RB over the last four weeks. Despite the down week, he's the most reliable fantasy option in the Redskins offense, and that won't change anytime soon.
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