College Football Playoff 2017: How Top Teams Outside the Top 4 Can Get In
This college football season is so bonkers, it's not out of the realm of possibility that a two-loss team could wind up in the College Football Playoff.
At this point, would you bet against it?
The first week's rankings were released, and Georgia stunningly was ahead of Alabama and Clemson, getting the nod over one-loss teams like Ohio State and Oklahoma.
Pandemonium broke loose again Saturday. The Buckeyes and Penn State both lost following their epic battle the weekend before, crippling their chances of reaching the playoff (for now, at least). Oklahoma fired more bullets than Oklahoma State in a shootout that lived up to the Bedlam moniker.
In what basically amounted to ACC elimination games, Clemson outlasted North Carolina State and Miami whipped Virginia Tech in Coral Gables. Now, the College Football Playoff picture is clearer than it was a week ago. Of course, there's still plenty of time for everything to get shuffled again.
It isn't even all that wild to suggest a still-undefeated Central Florida team could get some consideration as long as it keeps winning. For now, though, the top four of Georgia, Alabama, Notre Dame and Clemson remained intact. Who are the other teams with the best chance to play their way in?
Let's take a look.
Miami Hurricanes
1 of 5
Why They're Out
Honestly, at this point, it's hard to say.
In last weekend's battle for the Coastal division, the Hurricanes' powerful, opportunistic defense shut down Virginia Tech and made freshman quarterback Josh Jackson look average. The 'Canes haven't been much on style points this year, sweating out wins against bad teams like Florida State and North Carolina.
Though they're undefeated, the Hurricanes' schedule hasn't been all that great. It has the chance to improve dramatically, though. Also, perhaps the committee is projecting a bit that this team can't beat Notre Dame or Clemson when they meet in the ACC Championship Game.
Still, all Miami does is keep winning.
What Must Be Done
At this stage of the season, style points don't matter. Wins do. The Hurricanes have one of the marquee games of the season coming up this week when they host Notre Dame.
If coach Mark Richt's team wins that, respect will come. There's no way the committee will keep them out after back-to-back wins over the Hokies and Fighting Irish. Then, of course, Miami should take care of business against Virginia and Pittsburgh to end the year.
If they can outplay Notre Dame and win, Clemson isn't unstoppable. This is a strong defense, and coordinator Manny Diaz has the team believing it can play with anybody. Miami has proven so far that it's better than every opponent.
Playoff Chances: 50 percent
It's easy to keep ruling Miami out, but it looked stout last week. Quarterback Malik Rosier does just enough to win, and the defense keeps putting the offense in a position to score points.
That's a formula for winning football.
It's hard to see the Hurricanes getting past both of the remaining tough games they play. But if they lose to the Irish this weekend and beat Clemson in the ACC Championship Game, they may just find a way in with a loss. It's tough to bet against how they're playing.
They believe. Shouldn't we?
Oklahoma Sooners
2 of 5
Why They're Out
As they say in the Sooner State, Oklahoma can't play a lick of defense. Until the Sooners prove they can, they're going to put a ton of pressure on Baker Mayfield and Co.
The OU home loss to Iowa State didn't look too bad after TCU went down in Ames, Iowa, but then the Cyclones lost to West Virginia, which didn't help the Sooners or the Horned Frogs in the committee's eyes. That may not be great news for OU right now, but it ultimately won't matter.
The Big 12 continues to beat up on itself, but the Sooners have so many offensive stars, they could wind up the last team standing in the conference.
They haven't blown anybody away recently, but that offense and Mayfield are something to see.
What Must Be Done
This weekend, the Sooners host TCU in a game that might be a College Football Playoff winner-take-all. It's the second straight regular-season playoff game for OU.
After his five-touchdown performance against the Cowboys, Mayfield called on his team's fans to be ready against the Horned Frogs.
"We give it our all, week in and week out," Mayfield said after Bedlam. "I expect the fans to do the same for me on Saturday."
It could be a rowdy environment. If the Sooners take care of TCU, they'll get a break in a gimme game against Kansas before a season-ending game against West Virginia looms important. Still, the game against the Frogs is the big one.
Playoff Chances: 60 percent
Oklahoma is the better team against TCU because of its prolific offense, but the Frogs may be a more complete team capable of playing well on both sides of the ball.
If Mayfield continues to play the way he has recently, he'll win the Heisman Trophy and the Sooners will win out. If that happens, an early-season win over Ohio State and running the gauntlet of the Big 12 will look good on a playoff resume.
Coach Lincoln Riley's high-flying offense makes OU the best one-loss team out there.
TCU Horned Frogs
3 of 5
Why They're Out
The Horned Frogs' loss in Ames kept them from having a spotless slate at this late juncture of the season. As of now, their resume and that of the Sooners are nearly identical. If not for that 14-7 loss to the Cyclones, TCU would be a lock to be in the College Football Playoffs.
As it stands, it needs to win this weekend against the Sooners on the road. That's a tall task, but it's the only way to get back in the committee's good graces.
Coach Gary Patterson's team completed an impressive 24-7 win over Texas a week ago, but nobody is going to announce the Frogs' arrival until a win over OU.
What Must Be Done
There's no way the Horned Frogs want to get in a shootout with Oklahoma, which is why last weekend's domination of the Longhorns was the perfect warmup.
As SI.com's Andy Staples wrote, it's that kind of formula that can help TCU beat Oklahoma and control its own College Football Playoff destiny.
The Horned Frogs clamped down on an ineffective Texas offense Saturday, but they’ll get a much bigger test on Saturday in Norman. TCU limited Oklahoma State’s offense in Stillwater earlier this year by forcing turnovers and by milking clock with the ground game when it had the ball. The longer Kenny Hill and company can keep the ball out of Baker Mayfield’s hands, the better.
TCU's remaining path after this weekend is tougher than OU's, with remaining games against Texas Tech and Baylor. But the Horned Frogs should win out if they win Saturday. That's a massive "if."
Playoff Chances: 50 percent
They get a slightly smaller chance than Oklahoma, because I give the nod to the Sooners in the game. That's the only reason.
Both teams still have a tougher-than-normal game left (Oklahoma vs. West Virginia and TCU vs. Texas Tech) and both have an easy one in OU's game against Kansas and TCU's versus Baylor. So, it boils down to who you think will win Saturday.
TCU quarterback Kenny Hill needs to play his best game of the year, and the Horned Frogs must turn over Mayfield. If they do, they'll flip the script on the Sooners and earn a playoff berth for the Big 12.
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Washington Huskies
4 of 5
Why They're Out
Washington is a good team that had an epic, awful night against Arizona State earlier this year. The Sun Devils have proved since then that they aren't a bad team, but the Huskies still had no business losing.
Considering how mediocre the Pac-12 is this year, that single loss may be enough to keep the Huskies out. They needed Washington State and USC to win out to give them some decent wins to close the year.
That one night where nothing went right on offense in the desert looked a week ago like it may be enough to keep the Huskies out of the College Football Playoff, but if they win and everybody above them keep losing, their mediocre schedule may wind up an advantage.
"Compared to a week ago, UW's odds have improved," the News-Tribune's Ryan S. Clark said. "They'll only continue rising should the Huskies win. If not, the best case scenario UW can hope for is a New Year's Six."
What Must Be Done
The only hope for the Huskies is to win out and hope some of the teams above them keep dropping.
With dynamic playmaker Dante Pettis doing big things on offense and special teams, and Washington clicking on both sides of the ball, the Huskies just need to keep doing what they're doing. The 38-3 win over Oregon this past weekend was thorough.
There are no reasons for Washington to be in the mix right now. But it can be. The defense continues to earn impressive marks, and the remaining schedule is enough to turn heads.
The Huskies must play Stanford, Utah and Washington State to close out the season, followed by a likely date with USC in the Pac-12 Championship Game. Win out, and U-Dub could get in.
Playoff Chances: 35 percent
Is Washington going to slip up again? Stanford could make it happen with dynamic running back Bryce Love, and though the Cougars aren't playing as well lately as they were at the beginning of the year, the tandem of quarterback Luke Falk and coach Mike Leach could make things tough on Washington's defense.
The schedule starting the year wasn't impressive, but has been tougher of late and will continue that way. You never know when a game like the one earlier in the year against the Sun Devils could pop up, too.
The Huskies didn't make much noise a season ago when they got to the College Football Playoff and were dominated by Alabama. Will that laid-egg game hurt them in the committee's eyes as they hope to return? You'd hope it wouldn't be subjective, but it's possible.
Washington needs to win out and a couple of teams ahead of them lose, too.
Wisconsin Badgers
5 of 5
Why They're Out
The pundits aren't going to give you much credit when you dominate a division as weak as the Big Ten West, but Wisconsin continues to mow through its side of the league like dead grass.
That's why the Badgers remain undefeated.
A schedule full of teams like Northwestern, Nebraska, Florida Atlantic and Maryland isn't exactly a murderer's row. Plus, even though Wisconsin wins, it does so quietly. The Badgers play what a lot of folks think is a boring brand of football, predicated on successful running and hard-nosed defense.
They aren't out there slinging up 60 points like Oklahoma, and they don't have the names of Ohio State and Michigan. So, they don't get the headlines.
What Must Be Done
A single loss probably won't allow the Badgers to make the College Football Playoff with such a weak schedule. It's possible, but they don't want to leave anything to chance.
That's why winning out needs to be the top order of business. Currently 9-0, Wisconsin has looked strong recently.
But after Iowa pulled off a stunning 55-24 win over Ohio State that looked, as The Gazette's Marc Morehouse so eloquently put, "like a Buick backing over a Buckeye," the Badgers hosting the Hawkeyes this weekend is worth a watch.
Also, Michigan wore out Minnesota last weekend, and the Wolverines have to go to Camp Randall, too. Wisconsin needs to dispatch both of those teams and win the Big Ten Championship Game, against what looks like it'll be either Ohio State or Michigan State.
Those two teams play this weekend, too.
Playoff Chances: 55 percent
That Iowa game is going to be fun, and while Michigan's offense is awful, the Wolverines will be hyped up to play against Wisconsin.
Then, there's whoever awaits in the conference championship game. So, that's three difficult opponents for a team that hasn't played any of those yet.
Coach Paul Chryst's team has remained relatively healthy throughout most of the season and has its stars in tact. They'll need them for the homestretch. If Wisconsin loses one of its remaining games but wins the Big Ten, it could propel it into the College Football Playoff.
If the Badgers have a spotless slate, there's no way the committee will keep them out.
Unless otherwise noted, stats are courtesy of Sports Reference and CFBStats.com, and recruiting data is courtesy of 247Sports' composite rankings.
Brad Shepard covers college football for Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter at @Brad_Shepard.
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