Sound the Alarm! NBA Teams Already Hitting the Panic Button
Friends don't let friends fall into the trap of thinking they're not allowed to worry about their favorite NBA team just yet.
The season is still young. Playoff berths aren't secured in November. Championship aren't won when it's cold outside. Who's to say anyone informed the Cleveland Cavaliers the season started before April 12?
All the usual disclaimers and caveats apply. Lean on them as you must. But plenty of teams, relative to where they're supposed to be, are noticeably missing the mark or heading in the completely wrong direction. (And, just so we're clear, winning doesn't always constitute the right direction.)
Some of these situations will resolve themselves by year's end. They'll wind up being little more than regular-old early-season noise. That doesn't make the most concerning—or bizarre—starts any less unsettling.
Few teams enjoy the luxury of time. They don't have the talent to stay in cruise control or the ability to ride preexisting benefit of the doubt. Others just don't have the discernible means to reverse their current fortunes.
Whatever the reason, and whatever the context, these teams should be tapping, or pushing, or whaling, down on the panic button before it's too late for shows of urgency to mean anything.
Honorable Mention: Milwaukee Bucks
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Good job by the Milwaukee Bucks for getting Eric Bledsoe on the cheap, as reported by ESPN.com's Zach Lowe and Adrian Wojnarowski. He'll help a lot, though questions remain.
Teams that house top-five superstars shouldn't have to whale on the panic button so early in the season. But if we're worried about the Cavaliers—and we should be—how can we not conjure concern for the Bucks?
Giannis Antetokounmpo is spectacular. He will drag Milwaukee to a playoff berth on his own if need be. This squad isn't even rife with doom on the surface. The Bucks sport a top-10 offense, and their four-wings-plus-a-big starting lineups remain statistical fire. Dropping below .500 isn't ideal, but only the Golden State Warriors have slogged through a more difficult schedule. Spit happens.
Dig a little deeper, and not even Antetokounmpo can quash the resulting refrain: Is this team a non-threat in the East?
Milwaukee's hyper-aggressive defensive scheme isn't cutting the mustard. Opponents are catching on. They don't gush turnovers at the sight of traps, doubles and herds of oncoming bodies. They know how to spot where the help originates from and fling quick passes over and around the Bucks' long limbs to the abandoned players.
Smarter offenses are steering clear of the sidelines and having shooters make a beeline for the corners or the rim once Milwaukee sends an extra body toward the ball. Only five teams are relinquishing more sideline threes, and no one is giving up more attempts at the rim, according to Cleaning the Glass. Milwaukee is lucky its opponents aren't shooting a higher percentage on those gimmes.
Inviting so many easy looks wouldn't feel irreparably ominous if the Bucks' offensive success wasn't built on a house of cards. They're hitting their threes but don't have the proven shooters to sustain a 39.5 percent clip or build off their run-of-the-mill volume. Nor do they have the bona-fide bucket-getters to ferry admirable efficiency without Antetokounmpo.
Jabari Parker is still sidelined with an ACL injury. Matthew Dellavedova's contract looks worse than it did last year. Khris Middleton is underperforming—with the exception of outbursts versus the Hawks and Hornets.
Middleton and Malcolm Brogdon should be able to carry a half-decent offense between them. They're not. Milwaukee scores like a bottom-five offense when they're operating without Antetokounmpo. Splitting them up has culminated in more of the same or much worse.
In the absence of depth (the bench owns the sixth-worst plus-minus), the Bucks need invention. They're not getting it. Head coach Jason Kidd doesn't have them initiating that many more pick-and-rolls, and they play with bottom-10 pace. Only Cleveland and Golden State look to score quicker off defensive rebounds, but Milwaukee is 14th in efficiency after grabbing opponent misses, down from ninth last year, according to Inpredictable.
Help is on the way in Bledsoe, but the Bucks aren't waiting on any immediate breakouts otherwise unless Thon Maker's role expands. Keep an eye on them.
7. San Antonio Spurs
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Remember when the San Antonio Spurs were undefeated and Kawhi Leonard's absence was irrelevant?
Good times.
Extinct times.
San Antonio dropped four consecutive games after winning its first four. Two straight wins don't do anything to change what became obvious last season, but didn't look obvious to start this one, but definitely remains obvious now: This offense cannot function properly without Leonard.
The Spurs are 24th in points scored per 100 possessions and 28th since beginning the year 4-0. They are not hitting their three-pointers with typical lights-out efficiency (34.4 percent) and continue to hoist more mid-range attempts than almost anyone despite a 24th-ranked conversion rate (36.3 percent).
LaMarcus Aldridge has been mostly good, but he doesn't have the pull to headline an above-average offense on his own. The 102.8 points San Antonio tallies with him on the court would just narrowly miss bottom-10 territory.
Certain problems will work themselves out. The Spurs should drain more of their threes. Patty Mills' wrists will thaw at some point. Manu Ginobili might remember how to score outside the restricted area.
Still, the Spurs' point guard situation isn't getting any better. A healthy Tony Parker remains a 35-year-old Tony Parker. Dejounte Murray won't just stop being a sophomore. And most importantly: This trend isn't new.
Baskets were hard to come by last season without Leonard. The Spurs went from scoring like the league's second-most potent superpower when he played to a bottom-five basement-dweller once he sat. It was the same story, only more so, when the playoffs tipped off.
Total panic isn't necessary. The Spurs are the Spurs. They'll be fine. Maybe. We think.
Actually, if we're being frank, we don't know. Mum's the word on when Leonard will be ready to rock, and they're toeing a slippery slope with their snail-paced, post-oriented attack. Soldering on without him for much longer only exacerbates a tenuous situation.
6. New York Knicks
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The New York Knicks? The above-.500 New York Knicks? The Kristaps-Porzingis-is-an-MVP-dark-horse New York Knicks?
Ah, yes. We've spotted the problem: Kristaps Porzingis.
"If they wanted to tank games for the draft this season, his play may not let them," one Eastern Conference executive told ESPN.com's Ian Begley of Porzingis.
This matters. The Knicks should want to tank. They're supposed to be rebuilding, they control their own first-round choice, and the lottery format is changing in 2019. Chasing a top-five pick makes too much sense for a franchise that, speaking honestly, has two to three real building blocks on its roster.
Porzingis has other plans, though. He's averaging 30.2 points on 50 percent shooting, including a 35.7 percent clip from long range, in his first season as the Knicks' No. 1 option. And of the 315 players who have challenged more than five shots at the rim, no one is holding opponents to a lower success rate.
Make no bones about it: Porzingis' performance is good. He's exactly who New York needs him to be—a superstar. But his breakout is also, as of now, a curse in disguise.
The Knicks are playing like a 52-win team with him on the court, according to NBA Math's FATS calculator. That would be awesome...if they could play with him all the time. They can't. And they're faring like a 22-win contingent when he's on the bench.
Balance all this out, and the Knicks are tracking toward no-man's land: too good to secure a high-end draft pick, yet too bad to make any noise in the postseason should they be fortunate enough to make it.
Ending this year with anything worse than, say, a top-eight selection is disastrous. The draft is all the Knicks have. They don't have the assets to swing a blockbuster trade and won't have the cap flexibility to get frisky in free agency before 2019.
Shutting down Porzingis later in the season alleviates all the winning, but the Suns, Atlanta Hawks, Brooklyn Nets (aka Cavaliers), Chicago Bulls, Dallas Mavericks and Sacramento Kings will all have the jump on them. And at any rate, removing healthy players from the rotation isn't always good for the culture. Just look what happened to Eric Bledsoe in Phoenix.
So if you're the Knicks, you cross your fingers that the losses will start to roll in with Porzingis unicorning. In the event they don't, they have to consider selling off anyone who's helping the cause and not named Frank (Ntilikina) or Kristaps.
5. Cleveland Cavaliers
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I know, I know: Early-season Cavaliers are going to early-season Cavaliers. I get it. And other people get it, too.
"It's simple. They aren't mentally checked into the season yet," an NBA scout told Bleacher Report's Greg Swartz. "It's just an effort thing. They aren't trying yet. [Teams] just beat them up and down the court in transition. That's just effort."
Worrying about any LeBron James-led team before May feels forced on some level. Air-it-out meetings have been an annual event since he return to Cleveland. The Cavaliers always flip a switch for games that matter. Their defense finished 22nd in points allowed per 100 possessions last season, only to end up eighth out of 16 teams during the playoffs.
They are 36-5 versus the Eastern Conference through the past three postseasons.
So, yeah, you can understand why some won't fret over the Cavaliers' onset warts. But you also have to understand why this year, of all years, could be different.
Cleveland lost more than one-third of last season's minutes, thanks in large part to the Kyrie Irving trade. Head coach Tyronn Lue is still trying to figure out the rotation. Injuries and general experimentation have forced him to use six different starting lineups through 10 games. Not a single one of them is a net plus.
Look past the Cavaliers' league-worst defensive rating if you're feeling generous. Some of their wrinkles can be ironed out with more effort—like the absurd number of wide-open threes they're giving up. But the overall personnel issues aren't soon going away.
Jeff Green, Derrick Rose and Dwyane Wade won't suddenly shoot league-average clips from downtown. One of the NBA's worst point guard rotations won't get any better until Isaiah Thomas recovers from his hip injury. The frontcourt doesn't have a genuine rim protector or viable switcher with Tristan Thompson on the shelf. Lue cannot add Boston Celtics head coach Brad Stevens to his staff as the official Jae Crowder whisperer.
That Wade and Channing Frye have already not-so-subtly called out the starters is a red flag. That they're not unfounded in their criticism is even worse. Cleveland's starting lineups have thus far been outscored by 49 points—the fourth-worst mark in the league. Second-stringers have edged out rival backups by 10 total points, good enough for top-10 placement among benches.
James' 57-point detonation against the Washington Wizards on Nov. 3 temporarily assuaged fears that Cleveland's malaise is anything more than the usual regular-season disinterest. But he cannot drop 50-burgers every night. Plus, the Cavaliers barely won that game. Under no circumstances can we pretend this is business as usual.
4. Utah Jazz
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On the one hand, the Utah Jazz are trying to move on from the departures of Gordon Hayward and George Hill, their two best playmakers. Can we panic over a .500 start?
On the other hand, Ricky Rubio leads them in scoring.
Utah's offense is weird and slow, but mostly weird. It ranks 23rd in points scored per 100 possessions and has become oddly reliant on Donovan Mitchell's never-ending heat checks. The Jazz play with bottom-three pace, but they aren't allocating enough half-court sets to Rudy Gobert pick-and-rolls and own the NBA's highest turnover rate.
Slow and sloppy is a bad combination. The absence of a go-to scorer shows. They are 26th in shots attempted around the restricted area and 22nd in free-throw rate. Just four teams manufacture more wide-open triplets, but they're swishing those at about the same rate as the Bulls (36.7 percent).
This dependence on Mitchell is dangerous, verging on untenable. Utah notches 106.8 points per 100 possessions when he's in the game, compared to 94.5 with him on the bench—the difference between ranking eighth and 29th in offensive efficiency. No other rotation player comes close to having that kind of impact.
Major props to Mitchell for leaving such a huge dent, but the 21-year-old figures to eventually hit the rookie wall? What then?
Can the Jazz cobble together an adequate offense with one person averaging more than 15 points per game? Will Rodney Hood ever be able to handle an alpha-level job description? Will Joe Ingles ever shoot more? Does Joe Johnson's return stand to make much of a difference? Might Derrick Favors be ready for a heavier workload?
And if the answer isn't in the locker room, does Utah have the assets, and then the gall, to broker a midseason trade for an offensive authority?
These questions wouldn't be presented in earnest if the Jazz were picking off quality opponents, their heads comfortably above .500, with a top-three defense. They're not. They're 10th in points allowed per 100 possessions and, in recent outings, struggling to fend off fast-break attacks. They'll need some kind of an offensive leap, from somewhere, to keep up with the West's playoff hopefuls for a full 82 games.
3. Charlotte Hornets
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Could the Charlotte Hornets maybe generate some offense when Kemba Walker isn't in the lineup?
They put up 112.1 points per 100 possessions with him on the floor, the equivalent of the NBA's second-best mark. That number plunges to 81.2 when he steps off—a 30.9-point swing in the wrong direction.
Two of Charlotte's five most-used lineups don't include Walker. Neither of them muster even 91.7 points per 100 possessions—the offensive rating owned by the Bulls' league-worst scoring machine.
Turning to anyone currently on the roster won't help the Hornets survive Walker's breathers. Jeremy Lamb can run some pick-and-roll, but he needs the All-Star point guard as a buffer. Rookie Malik Monk is still learning the ropes as a scorer; he cannot be relied upon to jumpstart the offense.
Both have spent 60-plus minutes playing without Walker, because the Hornets have no choice. The offense doesn't stave off Association-worst production in either instance.
Nicolas Batum could make a difference whenever he returns from his shoulder injury. Then again, Charlotte's offense went belly-up whenever he played without Walker in 2016-17.
Please do not mention Michael Carter-Williams as a potential solution.
The Hornets could create a roster spot to add a veteran free agent, but Deron Williams isn't saving them. Good backups cost trade assets they don't have. Acquiring a starter-level floor general to play beside Walker might be fun, but those cost even more assets...or they're making Reggie Jackson money.
Finishing inside the top 10 of defensive efficiency probably guarantees the Hornets a playoff spot in the Eastern Conference. Or maybe not. They're around that sweet spot right now and just barely holding on. And that's with the East waiting on the Cleveland Cavaliers and Milwaukee Bucks to remember the season is underway.
Heck, the Hornets aren't even assured of a trademark defensive banner from the looks of things. They're 18th in points allowed per 100 possessions over the past five games after starting off super stingy. And while the offense is faring better in this span, it doesn't have the juice to anchor a playoff bid.
2. Miami Heat
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Sub-.500 starts aren't a big deal in the Eastern Conference. Teams have the leeway to rebound and establish playoff footing amid the thicket of mediocrity. Forty wins might even get you into the postseason.
But the Miami Heat aren't the Cavaliers. They have neither the star power nor track record to shrug off their unimpressive start—one defined by rampant inconsistency.
Miami ranks in the bottom four of offensive efficiency and turnover rate following its Nov. 6 loss to the Warriors. The defense is OK but still below average. Starters are being outscored by 7.1 points per 100 possessions—yet another bottom-four score.
Hassan Whiteside missed part of the season with a bruised left knee, which skews some of the data. The Heat rank sixth in points allowed per 100 possessions since his return. But the offense remains underwhelming, and he hardly fixes everything that ails the starters.
Head coach Erik Spoelstra continues to reach for the right opening-tip combination. Whiteside, Goran Dragic and Josh Richardson are the only formalities thus far, with Dion Waiters, when healthy, as the odds-on fourth. Finding a surefire fifth is proving difficult.
Including Justise Winslow enhances defensive versatility but kills offensive spacing. Kelly Olynyk could work, but Spo seems reluctant to test out a dual-big partnership with Whiteside. James Johnson is a no-brainer addition, but the Heat need his setup chops off the pine if Dragic, Richardson and Waiters are all going to start. Okaro White is a step above Winslow on the offensive end, but that's not saying much.
Shoddy backcourt play isn't helping matters. Richardson and Tyler Johnson cannot buy a bucket. Dragic is the only guard hitting more than 33.3 percent of his catch-and-shoot treys—though we have to imagine Wayne "Not Allowed To Shoot Twos" Ellington will eventually find his standstill touch.
Waiters' anti-Waiters moments are coming fewer and farther between. His three-point success rate has plummeted, and Miami still scores like a bottom-10 offense when he's in the game. The entire guard rotation ranks 25th by net rating.
Writing this off as early-bird blues doesn't fly when the Heat didn't make the playoffs last year. They know better than anyone how costly slow beginnings can be. This situation isn't nearly as dire as their 10-31 start from 2016-17, but team president Pat Riley shelled out four-year commitments for Olynyk, Waiters and James Johnson under the guise last season's squad was better than its 41-41 finish.
The Heat have done nothing to validate that leap of faith. Waiters and James Johnson aren't replicating career performances. Richardson, Winslow and Tyler Johnson aren't sponsoring measurable progressions. Rodney McGruder isn't playing after suffering a stress fracture in his left leg. And worst of all: Should this exact collection of talent fail to play better than .500ish basketball, the Heat don't have the appealing contracts necessary to strike a needle-nudging trade.
1. New Orleans Pelicans
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The New Orleans Pelicans have been ticketed for panic-button duty since, like, July.
Depth was always going to be an issue. And perimeter defense. And floor spacing. And injuries.
Sure enough, these problems exist. The bench owns a bottom-10 net rating. Only the Kings are allowing more wide-open three-pointers. The Pelicans' 32.2 percent clip on triples ranks 26th. Rajon Rondo has yet to make his season debut. They miss Solomon Hill.
Although the defense has picked up in recent games, the uptick is on thin ice. Opponents are shooting 35.5 percent on those uncontested threebies, the eighth-lowest mark in the league. New Orleans doesn't have the in-house personnel to chase hostile scorers off the three-point line and into mid-range territory when that number jumps—and it will jump.
DeMarcus Cousins and Anthony Davis are saving graces. The Pelicans outpace opponents by 10.2 points per 100 possessions when they share the floor—akin to a top-two differential. But this effect doesn't hold when they're in separate lineups.
The Pelicans are a minus-17 in the 138 minutes Cousins has played without Davis. Flip the script, with Davis on his own, and they're a minus-36 through 82 minutes.
Again: It didn't take crystal-ball gazers to foresee these issues. The Pelicans are shallow and need both of their superstars to carry them. Surprise, surprise. And yet, they're also worse for wear than those initial anticipations.
"Jrue Holiday hasn't knocked down a single three-pointer in four games now, and his play within individual games continues to waver between extremes," Oleh Kosel explained for The Bird Writes. "After a solid October, E'Twaun Moore has gone missing in November. Ian Clark's shooting touch has been on hiatus even longer, and Dante Cunningham, well, let's just say there's no one who would welcome pushing the reset button on the season more."
New Orleans should count itself as lucky to be hovering around .500 all things considered. But .500 basketball won't get you in the Western Conference playoff bracket. And it most certainly won't turn Cousins' impending free agency into a non-issue.
Will things get better? Maybe.
If they do, it won't be thanks to a groundbreaking trade. The Pelicans don't have the expendable talent or team-friendly contracts to land another impact player.
Unless otherwise cited, all stats are courtesy of NBA.com or Basketball Reference and current leading into games on Nov. 7.
Dan Favale covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter (@danfavale) and listen to his Hardwood Knocks podcast co-hosted by B/R's Andrew Bailey.
