Bowl Predictions 2017: Playoff Projections Heading into Week 10

Halloween is going to be a special day on the college football calendar since it's the first time the rankings for the 2017 College Football Playoff will be released.

The contenders for the top four spots have already shuffled multiple times. A preseason favorite like USC already has two losses and is likely done as a playoff challenger. Clemson, Oklahoma, Ohio State and Washington already have one loss with little margin for error over the next five weeks.

Heading into Week 10 of the season, here are the latest projections for the top four spots when the initial playoff rankings are released on Oct. 31. 

CFP Top 4 Projections

1. Alabama Crimson Tide

2. Penn State Nittany Lions

3. Georgia Bulldogs

4. TCU Horned Frogs

The Lock: Alabama Crimson Tide

Brynn Anderson/Associated Press

Considering the Alabama Crimson Tide are ranked No. 1 unanimously in both the Associated Press Top 25 and Coaches Poll, there is virtually no way they aren't the top seed when the playoff standings are released.

It's also easy to predict that head coach Nick Saban's group is the one lock because they have a bye this week before returning to action on Nov. 4 against LSU. 

ESPN analyst Greg McElroy made a case against Alabama being ranked No. 1 in the playoff standings on ESPNU Radio on Tuesday.

"Alabama hasn't beaten anybody," he said. "Their best win is against [Texas] A&M, and that was an 8-point margin of victory. 'But we've beaten everyone else bad!' OK, but that doesn't matter. They're not any good."

The Crimson Tide were supposed to have a big win on their resume when they defeated Florida State in the season opener, but the Seminoles are just 2-4 and look lost without quarterback Deondre Francois. 

Penn State is the one team McElroy believes could claim the top seed with a win over Ohio State in the marquee game on Saturday.

The Safe Bets: Georgia, TCU

Scott Cunningham/Getty Images

Georgia is quickly becoming the Alabama of the SEC East division. The Bulldogs have a long way to go before matching the longevity established by Saban and his staff, but their 7-0 start this season has them thinking big in 2017. 

It's not a surprise that Georgia is modeled after Alabama since head coach Kirby Smart spent eight years as Saban's defensive coordinator from 2008-15 before leaving for his current job. 

Georgia's defense is dominating the opposition so far, allowing the fourth-fewest points per game (12.6) in the nation. The Bulldogs have two quality wins over Notre Dame and Missisippi State already and a potential showdown against Alabama in the SEC Championship Game if both teams stay on their current trajectory. 

There is the potential for a Georgia slip up on Saturday in a rivalry game against Florida, which has defeated the Bulldogs each of the last three years. The Gators are 3-3 this season but are coming off back-to-back losses against LSU and Texas A&M. 

TCU has been one of the surprise teams this season. The Horned Frogs have climbed up to fourth in both polls after being unranked in the preseason. 

The biggest reason for TCU's ascent is its passed its two biggest tests so far, beating Oklahoma State on the road and earning a home win over West Virginia. 

The Horned Frogs will face another ranked opponent on the road Saturday when they travel to Iowa State. 

Despite the good vibes around his team right now, TCU head coach Gary Patterson is trying to keep his team's positioning in check. 

"Maybe I'll think about that on Sunday but it won't make any difference if we don't win," Patterson told reporters Tuesday. "We need to make sure we take care of our business."

Patterson knows too well what it's like to be disappointed by the rankings after TCU went 12-1 during the 2014 season but finished sixth in the final CFP standings. 

Iowa State has already stunned Oklahoma in Big 12 play this season, so TCU will have to put its best foot forward to remain undefeated and control its own destiny. 

Danger Zone: Penn State

If the playoff rankings came out at the start of this week, Penn State would probably be ranked right behind Alabama. 

The good news for the Nittany Lions is they have a chance to make the ultimate statement to the selection committee this week on the road against Ohio State. This was the matchup last year that elevated Penn State back into national prominence. 

If Penn State wins Saturday, it will have already defeated Michigan and Ohio State. A matchup against Michigan State on Nov. 4 is the only ranked opponent left on its schedule, not including a potential appearance in the Big Ten Championship Game. 

As noted by Dennis Dodd of CBS Sports, this is also a huge game for Ohio State as it tries to establish its identity in 2017. 

"Last time we saw Ohio State against a living, breathing opponent, its defensive line was being dominated by OU's offensive front," Dodd wrote. "Baker Mayfield was surgically carving up the secondary and woofing to Ohio State fans each time he did it."

It's easy to say Ohio State has bounced back and is 6-1 even with the loss against Oklahoma, but its last four opponents (UNLV, Rutgers, Maryland, Nebraska) have a combined 11-17 record. 

Penn State hasn't played a murderer's row schedule, either, but at least it looked impressive with a 42-13 win in its biggest test against Michigan. 

This is the matchup both teams need and neither can afford to lose at this point. Penn State, as an undefeated team, does have more leeway than Ohio State, especially with Michigan State waiting in the wings next week. 

But if the Nittany Lions want to prove they belong in the conversation as the nation's best team, they have to win this week.