7 Keys to Victory in New England Patriots' Week 4 Matchup
It hasn't been easy, but the New England Patriots have battled their way to a 2-1 record. Their latest victory required a fourth-quarter comeback to achieve, but it kept the Patriots tied with the Buffalo Bills atop the AFC East.
Now is not the time for the Patriots to relax. Up next on Sunday is the Carolina Panthers, a team that is also 2-1. The Panthers share a lot of similarities with the Houston Texans team that took New England to the wire in Foxborough, Massachusetts.
If the Patriots don't approach this game with the right plan and with 100 percent focus, they could easily slip to 2-2. That isn't the kind of start they want, and it certainly isn't one that provides confidence in earning another division title.
So what do the Patriots need to prioritize in their game plan heading into Week 4? We're here to help sort that out.
Carolina at New England Patriots
When: Sunday, 1 October, 1 p.m. ET
Where: Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, Massachusetts
National TV: Fox
Continue Featuring Brandin Cooks on Offense
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Wide receiver Brandin Cooks finally showed why the Patriots were willing to part with a first-round pick to acquire him in Week 3. He seems to be building chemistry with quarterback Tom Brady, and that help produce a brilliant performance last weekend.
Cooks finished the game against Houston with five catches, 131 yards and two touchdowns. His second score was the game-winner. In addition, his emergence is allowing Brady to have more success throwing the deep ball; the quarterback leads the NFL with 20 passes of 20 yards or more.
Continuing to feature Cook and the deep-passing game has to be a priority for the Patriots. The Panthers have a stout front seven, but their secondary is a bit suspect. The New Orleans Saints proved that last week.
Saints quarterback Drew Brees only passed for 220 yards, but he completed more than 75 percent of his passes and tossed three touchdowns.
Find a Way to Get Mike Gillislee Some Running Room
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Brees probably could have sliced up the Panthers secondary more had the Saints not jumped out to an early lead.
Once New Orleans went up, it began pounding Carolina with the run. As a team, the Saints racked up 149 yards rushing, which helped them close out the game.
If the Patriots can get out to an early lead, they will need to run to protect it. Moving the ball on the ground could also help keep the pass rush from zeroing in on Brady.
The problem is New England doesn't have a stellar run game. As a team, the Patriots are averaging just 3.5 yards per carry. Leading rusher Mike Gillislee is averaging 3.2 yards per carry. If the team is going to continue leaning on him as a rusher, they need to figure out how to give him more running room.
Getting Gillislee on the edge behind a tight end such as Rob Gronkowski could help get the former Buffalo Bills man into space. So, too, could utilizing Cooks and the deep-passing game to force the back seven out of the box.
If the Patriots cannot get Gillislee going in the ground game, they may want to consider using a different back. The problem there is the only players averaging over four yards a carry are Phillip Dorsett and Chris Hogan, both wide receivers.
Keep Brady Clean
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As we mentioned, the Panthers' defensive front is a good one. Carolina has edge-rushers such as Julius Peppers and Mario Addison, plus guys who can bring interior pressure like Kawann Short and Star Lotulelei.
Keeping Brady upright has been a struggle so far—he's been sacked 10 times already, five fewer than he was in 12 games last season. Providing him with a clean pocket against this group is going to be a challenge.
The New England line has to do a better job of protecting Brady, though; otherwise, the Panthers could gain the advantage. While the QB has yet to be picked off, he's been forced to throw the ball away multiple times and has fumbled three times in three games.
A turnover or two—or even worse, an injury to Brady—could allow Carolina to keep the game close.
A close game is exactly the kind the Panthers could win against Brady and Co.
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Shut Down the Run
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The strength of the Panthers hasn't been its passing offense this season. Quarterback Cam Newton has only produced 566 yards and two touchdowns with four interceptions through three weeks.
Of course, the Panthers running game hasn't been much better. As a team, Carolina is averaging 3.7 yards per carry, but that average is skewed a bit by a 31-yard Curtis Samuel run. Newton, Jonathan Stewart and Christian McCaffrey are all averaging less than four yards per carry.
Still, stopping the run has to be a concern for the Patriots because the team has struggled to do so throughout this young season. Opponents have averaged 5.1 yards per carry against New England and have averaged more than 130 yards per game on the ground.
Limiting the run early—and potentially getting an early lead—could force Carolina's offense to become one-dimensional. With Newton not playing like the former MVP he is, this would create an advantage for New England.
Keep Cam Newton in the Pocket
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We've known that Newton can be successful running the ball for some time. You know who else is showing he can scramble? Texans quarterback Deshaun Watson.
Watson torched the Patriots defense for 301 yards and two touchdowns in Week 3. He did a lot of his damage on the run, using his legs to escape pressure while still keeping his eyes downfield. He also ran eight times and picked up 41 yards on the ground.
All of this came despite defensive coordinator Matt Patricia game-planning to keep Watson in the pocket.
If a rookie quarterback making his second professional start isn't going to be afraid to make plays with his legs in Gillette Stadium, Newton definitely won't.
Teams have done a decent job of preventing Newton from making plays with his legs this year—he's averaging just 3.3 yards per carry, down from his 5.1 yards-per-carry career average. The Patriots have to do the same if they're going to make the Panthers one-dimensional.
Don't Lose Track of Christian McCaffrey
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The Panthers are hurting for receiving weapons right now. Tight end Greg Olsen has already been lost for the season and star wideout Kelvin Benjamin recently suffered a knee injury. While it appears he avoided major injury, the latter may not be available in Week 4.
"They're going to see how his treatment goes," Panthers coach Ron Rivera said Monday, per David Newton of ESPN.com. "I have not heard since last night. They told me it all came out negative. There was nothing structurally wrong, which was good news because that was his repaired knee."
This means the Patriots should—and should be able to—give more attention to McCaffrey. The Stanford product is already leading the team in receptions with 18, but he becomes even more integral to the passing game if Benjamin cannot play.
Keeping track of McCaffrey isn't an easy challenge, though. He's more than adept at catching the ball out of the backfield, and he's capable of lining up at receiver too.
It might not be a bad idea to keep a defensive back on him in man coverage to ensure he isn't repeatedly out there making a linebacker such as Elandon Roberts look silly.
Find a Way to Bring Pressure
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Pressuring the quarterback has been easier said than done this season for New England. A year after totaling just 34 sacks, the Patriots are on pace to produce 32. Their struggling pass rush isn't caused by a lack of talent at the end positions, though.
According to Pro Football Focus, ends Deatrich Wise and Trey Flower rank second and 11th, respectively, in pass-rush productivity among 4-3 edge-rushers. New England is getting pressure from the guys on the edge of their 4-3 front.
The issue for New England is that it doesn't have a lot of other pass-rushing options. If opponents are able to block up Flowers and Wise, they have a good chance of keeping a clean pocket. Against a dual-threat quarterback such as Newton, that could become a big problem.
Patricia needs to figure out some way to bring extra pressure in order to make Newton uncomfortable. Blitzing a safety out of the big-nickel package may be one option, as the Panthers are lacking in downfield receiving threats at the moment.
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