St. Louis Cardinals Have Plenty of Questions to Answer this Offseason

Thanks to one error by left-fielder Matt Holliday, one implosion by closer Ryan Franklin, one ineffective start by ace Chris Carpenter, and clutch hitting by the Los Angeles Dodgers, the St. Louis Cardinals went from title contender to a team in dire straights.

They have nine impending free-agents, three of whom they should focus on re-signing–Holliday, starting pitcher Joel Pineiro, and infielder Mark Derosa.

Of the three, Holliday is the most important. The 29-year-old is a star with 35 homer, 130 RBI ability and, in the prime of his career, can command well over $100 million this offseason, and possibly a yearly salary nearing $20 million.

The Cardinals have a decision to make: whether they want to use half of their offseason’s money on one player, or try to find a less expensive option to support the best player in baseball, Albert Pujols.

As far as the 2010 season is concerned, they can afford to pay Holliday close to $20 million if they chose to. But beyond 2010, a salary of that size could be difficult to dole out since Pujols will be due for an extension, and will presumably command over $200 million dollars over the length of his next contract.

Can they afford to donate $40-plus million, or nearly half of their payroll, to two immensely talented players over a long period of time? I believe, if they want to succeed offensively, they have no choice but to.

In order to woo Holliday back and retain Pujols longterm, they have some other business to take care of first. On top of the nine free agents, manager Tony La Russa, one of the best managers in the game, doesn’t have a contract for next season.

Neither does his pitching coach, Dave Duncan, who was disgruntled this season by the ownership’s handling of his son, outfielder Chris Duncan, who was traded from the Cardinals to the Boston Red Sox for shortstop Julio Lugo in late July.

General Manager John Mozeliak expects both to return with contracts in hand, but if La Russa decides to jump ship after a disappointing finish to the season, it can be expected that Duncan will follow, considering he has been by La Russa’s for the past 25 years.

The loss of La Russa and Duncan would be demoralizing for the Cardinals. Not only would the team lose a manager that has ingeniously led their franchise to a World Series title and eight National League Central titles in 13 years, but also a pitching coach that has developed four pitchers into Cy Young winners and resurrected many others.

If Duncan leaves, will pitchers feel tentative about signing with the Cardinals? Will Pujols and/or Holliday be hesitant to re-sign because of the loss of La Russa?

Mozeliak better make sure La Russa and Duncan stay with St. Louis, because if they do re-up, the Cardinals would retain their credibility and have far less to worry about heading into next year.

Holliday, Pineiro, and DeRosa will be their main priorities on the diamond and, like La Russa and Duncan, to avoid taking a step backwards, the Cardinals ownership has to dole out the cash necessary if they want to seriously contend in 2010 and beyond.

Not re-signing Holliday would make little sense, not only because of his undeniable talent, but because it is slim pickings on the free-agent market as far as corner outfielders are concerned.

The Los Angeles Angels’ Bobby Abreu is a solid hitter and would be a smart Plan-B, but he will be 36 next March and is leaning towards re-signing with the Angels.

Carl Crawford will also be available, but he’s built on more speed than power, and power is what the Cardinals need out of their left-fielder. He is expected to re-sign with the Tampa Bay Rays, so he’s out of the question anyway.

Then there is Jason Bay, who hit 36 homers and drove in 119 rbi’s this season with the Boston Red Sox. Many experts, including general managers, expect the 31-year-old and Holliday to receive similar deals, so why go after Bay when Holliday, who already fits into their system and provides adequate protection for Pujols, can be retained for quite possibly the same amount?

To me, this is a no-brainer, as are the re-signings of Pineiro, who had 15 wins and a 3.49 ERA, and DeRosa, who, though he had a rough half-season with the Cardinals, should return to his former self, hitting for power and average, while providing versatility.

St. Louis could go after impending free-agent starting pitcher Rich Harden to replace Pineiro if they chose, but he would cost a similar amount and is an injury liability. Other impending free-agent pitchers, such as current Angels ace John Lackey, are too expensive for the Cardinals blood if they throw a bunch of money at Holliday.

They could replace DeRosa with the Angels’ Chone Figgins, but he would ask for a larger contract over more years and, though arguably more talented than DeRosa, isn’t nearly as versatile.

St. Louis can upgrade other parts of their offenses, though. Utility-man Joe Thurston, third baseman Troy Glaus, and shortstop Khalil Greene can be replaced from within or by going bargain-hunting on the free-agent market.

David Freese, their ninth-ranked prospect, is a powerful bat and could provide more offense than the three combined if given regular playing time. He struggled during his cup of coffee with the Cardinals this year, but proved himself in Triple-A and is seemingly ready for an impact role.

Allen Craig, another young, powerful bat, hit .322 with 26 homers at Triple-A this season, and though his defense isn’t up to par, he should find a place on St. Louis’s roster next season as a bench player.

Lugo is under control through next year, and could be backed up by Tyler Greene, a 25-year-old shortstop with both power and speed. Greene could man the position when Lugo’s gone.

So, without spending any money, the Cardinals can replace three bench players with considerably younger and talented options from the farm.

If St. Louis chooses this path, they can safely lock up Holliday, Derosa, and Pineiro, while using the remainder of their money on middle relief, the back-end of their rotation.

But the Cardinals offseason has to start with La Russa and Duncan. The rest of their offseason feeds off how these situations are dealt with, so it is vital that they persuade the tandem to return and try to build off a successful season and contend for a championship in the coming years.