Chicago Bears: Over/Under Predictions for 2017 Season

On paper, the Chicago Bears aren't a hard team to figure out in 2017.

The Bears will be more competitive than the three-win squad that took the field a year ago thanks to an active offseason by the front office. But the revamped roster by way of short-term deals suggests those in charge know 2017 falls under the "transition" classification.

Still, fans who want to play odds shouldn't have a hard time hitting the house where it hurts after a bit of research. Several rising stars and a national vibe down on the Bears as a whole should make this possible if bettors remain patient while on the hunt for quality lines.

Below, let's project some interesting over/under lines for the Bears in 2017 to give fans a baseline as to what to expect when it comes to the team's performance next season.

Adam Shaheen: 500 Receiving Yards

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With it seeming unlikely the Bears start Mitchell Trubisky under center as a rookie with Mike Glennon on the roster, tight end Adam Shaheen becomes the most interesting first-year player to watch in 2017.

Based on sheer talent alone, Shaheen could take over as the top tight end on the depth chart by the start of the season.

His beating out oft-injured Zach Miller isn't so unfathomable. And while Dion Sims is a budding weapon as a receiver, the Bears are more likely to use his elite blocking skills to help compensate for up-and-down offensive tackles—his big contract in free agency was more the price a bad team like the Bears pay to get quality players than an indication he's a major part of the plan in the passing attack.

The team drafted Shaheen in the second round for a reason, after all. He's massive (6'6") and entering an offense where tight end could easily be the top target as Glennon tries to find his feet.

So no, 500 yards for Shaheen as a rookie isn't a crazy benchmark. Keep in mind the Bears have to replace 95 targets that went Alshon Jeffery's direction last year, as well as another 43 that went to Eddie Royal.

Verdict: Over

Kevin White: 35 Receptions

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If Shaheen is the most interesting rookie for the Bears in 2017, Kevin White might be the most interesting overall player. 

This isn't what the Bears had envisioned for White when taking him seventh overall in 2015—he has 19 career receptions, making the over/under of 35 look quite reasonable.

White hasn't been able to stay healthy and is the new posterboy for why age is so important for teams during the NFL draft. He's already 25 years old and is still a rookie in some respects because of his body's inability to withstand the rigors of the game.

If the Bears hadn't added anyone to the passing attack this offseason, the over/under above might look a little different. But here are a few notable passing-game names the Bears added:

• Markus Wheaton
• Kendall Wright 
• Victor Cruz
• Adam Shaheen
• Dion Sims
• Benny Cunningham
• Tarik Cohen

Could White still one day blossom into a No. 2 or fringe No. 1 wideout? Of course, but he's going to need to show an unexpected bump in performance and stay healthy to break through in 2017. 

For now, it's just hard to see. And though play under center was bad last year, the Bears only had three players north of 35 catches. A spread-it-out approach and run-first offense likely hampers his numbers even if he sees the field often.

Verdict: Under

Leonard Floyd: 10 Sacks

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Over. End of Analysis.

Kidding aside, Leonard Floyd exploded on to the scene after coming off the board ninth to Chicago, collecting seven sacks over all of 12 games. Quietly, he was one of the best edge-rushers in the league despite playing on a bad, injury-riddled team while underweight and unable to stay healthy.

Got all that?

Only 16 players broke the double-digit sack mark last year, but it's not hard to see Floyd joining the fray as a sophomore.

Provided he stays healthy and those around him fare better in the same area, a typical second-year leap and more muscle mass should produce a breakout season the national spotlight really shines on—as it should have already.

Verdict: Over

Cameron Meredith: 1,000 Receiving Yards

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Cameron Meredith was one of the lone bright spots for the Bears last year during his breakout season.

Then again, slap him on a good team with consistent play around him and those 66 catches for 888 yards and four touchdowns on a 13.5 average make a big leap.

Translation: Meredith can have another breakout season in 2017 by slamming through the 1,000-yard mark.

Interestingly enough, prior comments about more targets to go around applies to him, while comments about more new faces hogging said targets doesn't because he effectively enters 2017 as the team's No. 1 wideout.

Consistent quarterback play, another year of improvement on an individual level and the return of a strong running game should have Meredith on the fast track to household-name status by the end of 2017.

Verdict: Over

Jordan Howard: 1,300 Rushing Yards

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Speaking of the strong running game, Jordan Howard might be the hardest thing to figure out from a betting standpoint next year.

Howard bruised his way to 1,313 yards and six touchdowns as a rookie on a 5.2 per-carry average, breaking into the national spotlight and landing behind only Ezekiel Elliott in rushing yards, who coincidentally was also a rookie.

There's little chance Howard sees a regression in 2017. The Bears didn't bring on anyone of note who will steal major snap numbers from him, and he's likely been working on his skills as a receiver so he loses even fewer in passing situations.

The real question is whether Glennon and a revamped passing game around him hurts or helps.

In theory, the threat of the passing game should have defenders on their heels, helping Howard pick up more yardage behind one of the league's better interior lines. But if the Bears keep nickel and diming their way down the field with a passing game borderline serving as a running game, his numbers suffer.

Better to err on the side of caution here. Howard is one of the brightest young backs in the league, but the Bears won't need him to do it all on his own next season.

Verdict: Under

Mike Glennon: 25 Passing TDs

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Now for Glennon. 

There are plenty of different metrics to pick and choose from when it comes to evaluating and projecting a quarterback who has attempted all of 11 passes since 2014.

For his career, Glennon is a 59.4 percent passer with 30 touchdowns against 15 interceptions over 630 attempts. One could argue it's hard to use those numbers to judge him given the dire state of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, but he also did get to simply heave the ball up to a guy by the name of Mike Evans.

In other words, it's a bit of a wash. So let's keep it simple—touchdowns. In his lone season with north of 400 attempts, Glennon managed 19 touchdowns despite his rookie status.

There's no easy to way to extend the numbers from there because he hasn't played reliable snaps since then. But the players around Glennon in 2017 make it easier—guys like Wheaton, Wright, Shaheen and even White, should he stay on the field, are yard-after-catch monsters.

It's easy to think offensive coordinator Dowell Loggains will keep the offense short and sweet in 2017, meaning Glennon can dump the ball off and let his specialists go to work.

Thirteen quarterbacks threw for 25 or more scores last year and guys like Blake Bortles and Sam Bradford came close. This is risky, but look for Glennon to hit the mark thanks to a grinding run-first offense that leaves defenses susceptible to coughing up big plays.

Verdict: Over

Players on IR by Season's End: 10

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This is a cheeky over/under category, but those who watched the Bears last year will know it's a necessary one. 

The Bears were one of the teams with the most cap space on injured reserve by season's end last year, and this wasn't just a bad team shutting down players for the sake of doing so.

For instance, star linebacker Danny Trevathan went down with a serious injury in late November and isn't even a lock to give it a go in training camp this summer.

Here are some of the notable names on Chicago's IR list by January:

• Jay Cutler
• Lamarr Houston
• Kyle Long
• Kyle Fuller
• Danny Trevathan 
• Eddie Goldman
• Brian Hoyer
• Kevin White
• Zach Miller
• Connor Shaw

A stroke of bad luck or something else? 

It's hard to say, but some of these guys simply don't have a good track record of staying healthy. Guys such as Eddie Goldman, Miller and White have problems staying on the field, as do others like linebacker Pernell McPhee.

This isn't wishing ill will on the franchise by any means, but it's not hard to see the Bears hitting the double-digit mark again.

Verdict: Over

Wins: 6

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Here's the one observers have wanted to see.

For those actually paying attention, the Bears are one of the more interesting teams in the NFL heading into next season.

We're talking about a team that only won three games, yet they came within six points in six more contests despite the aforementioned plague of injuries and fielding a roster the front office decided to turn over more than any other team in the league.

Now? Chicago has a steady quarterback, at least compared to the names who started last year. The running game should be as strong and the passing counterpart has a bevy of options. The defense, health willing, should at a minimum boast one of the league's better front sevens.

This might sound like typical offseason positive chatter. But a strong running game and defense can go far in the NFL, especially for a team like the Bears with little in the way of expectations going into a transition year.

Look for the Bears to more than double the win total from a year ago as the process continues.

Verdict: Over

All contract information courtesy of Spotrac unless otherwise specified. Stats courtesy of NFL.com. All advanced metrics courtesy of Pro Football Focus.