Oakland Raiders: Over/Under Predictions for 2017 Season

Ask yourself this: Will the Oakland Raiders go under or over the mark in the upcoming season?

Players often tell the media it's about wins and losses, which isn't a lie. However, it's naive to think individual stats or team goals don't matter at all, especially with contract incentives on the line at the end of the season. 

Before injuries and lineup changes complicate the 2017 season outlook, we'll take a look at some challenging over/under projections for the year.

What's the statistical forecast for individual performances? How do the Raiders stack up within the division? Will the Silver and Black win multiple playoff games this year?

Some over/under projections utilize .5 to avoid safe predictions or the option to push on the line.

Derek Carr: 35.5 Touchdown Passes, Under

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Derek Carr returns to the field with the Mamba Mentality—crush everything in sight upon return. There's motivation for the fourth-year quarterback to whip the football all over the field, but it's not necessary.

Furthermore, 36 touchdowns isn't an easy feat. Last year, only three quarterbacks passed the mark. Aaron Rodgers (40), Matt Ryan (38) and Drew Brees (37). Rodgers and Brees played with rushing offenses that ranked in the bottom half of the league. 

The Raiders have three running backs to feed in their backfield. Down the stretch, Carr won't have to throw a game-winning touchdown to pull off late victories. Inside the 10-yard line, he can hand off to Marshawn Lynch to finish the drive. 

Carr should surpass his previous single-season high in touchdowns (32), but he'll fall a hair short of 35. Expect 33 or 34 complete passes in the end zone, which amounts to nearly two per game.

Raiders: Allow 8.5 Sacks, Under

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In 2016, the Raiders offensive line allowed the fewest sacks, per Pro Football Focus. Kudos to general manager Reggie McKenzie for investing in Carr Insurance and offensive line coach Mike Tice for fine-tuning the protections. 

A question mark at right tackle may cause slight concern, but the Raiders lost an inconsistent link in Menelik Watson. Austin Howard still has an opportunity to reclaim his spot on the outside in full health. If not, Vadal Alexander's growth could help him earn the starting role. McKenzie also picked up veteran Marshall Newhouse as an experienced alternative.

Oakland should have the stingiest offensive line when it comes to surrendering sacks again in 2017. This is a group stacked with three outright Pro Bowlers, and they'll continue to jell for another year. The front office rightfully extended Gabe Jackson who played three solid years as an interior lineman at left and right guard.

The offense also allows Carr to dump the football off to capable receivers in the backfield to avoid pressure and contact.

Amari Cooper: 1,300 Yards, Over

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Wide receiver Amari Cooper spent more time curling his biceps and extending his triceps during the offseason. He's coming into this year with a noticeably chiseled physique. Due to his soft-spoken nature, there's buzz about defensive backs' ability to rough him up as he breaks off a route.

For Cooper, it's more than just body composition. Carr talked about seeing "the dog" in his third-year receiver, which speaks to a shift toward an attack mentality on the practice field after a mandatory minicamp session in June:

"That dog in him is coming out. That thing you saw at Alabama where he'd just take games over. Not to say that he hasn't because he has, but I think it's not just becoming a thing of, 'What game is it going to be?' It's becoming a thing of, 'That’s who he is.' (Defensive backs) better know that he's really taking it serious, that he's trying to go attack them this year. He's not going to let them come to him this year."

Cooper's aggressive mentality should serve him well in overall production. Now, with Bill Musgrave's conservative play-calling out and new offensive coordinator Todd Downing allowing Carr to make more decisions under center, expect the AC-DC connection to hook up more frequently on deep passes.

As a result, Cooper should rank within the top five in receiving yards with more than 1,300 under his belt in 2017.

Marshawn Lynch: 1,000 Rushing Yards, Under

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The Raiders will feature Beast Mode in the ground attack, but he'll split carries with Jalen Richard and DeAndre Washington. The young ball-carriers individually accumulated more than 450 rushing yards in their rookie seasons. Expect the second-year running backs to match or improve on their statistical outputs. 

At the peak of his prime, Marshawn Lynch ran as the workhorse back with the Seattle Seahawks. Between the 2011-14 seasons in which Beast Mode surpassed 1,200 yards in each campaign, quarterback Russell Wilson rushed for the second-most yards on the team in three of those years.

Lynch won't come close to 280-300 carries with the Raiders. He'll take approximately 200 handoffs at about 4.6 yards per attempt.

It's more important for the 31-year-old running back to cross the marker for first downs and finish drives near the goal line as opposed to eating up yards. Oakland has two talented ball-carriers to accumulate yardage in between the 20-yard lines.

Khalil Mack and Bruce Irvin: 19.5 Combined Sacks, Over

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Khalil Mack leads the league with 26 sacks over the last two seasons. Despite the double-teams and offensive holding on the edge, you can pencil the reigning Defensive Player of the Year down for a double-digit sack total.

Mack's tenacity off the edge frees teammates and gives interior defensive linemen an opportunity to win their matchups and wreak havoc on opposing quarterbacks as well. Like the previous season, fellow pass-rusher Bruce Irvin will be a beneficiary on the opposite side.

Irvin aimed for 10 sacks, per NBCS Bay Area reporter Scott Bair (via Facebook Live at the 8:20-mark). He fell short but likely returns with the same motivation for the upcoming season.

In 2016, the edge-rushing duo combined for 18 sacks. With a healthy Mario Edwards Jr. on the defensive line and the quality depth up front, expect Irvin take a step closer to his double-digit sack goal. Mack will vie for consecutive Defensive Player of the Year honors with 13 sacks.

Raiders: 15.5 Interceptions, Under

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Oakland logged 16 interceptions in the previous campaign. As a team, they won't match that number, but that's not a sign of regression for the defense.

Defensive coordinator Ken Norton Jr.'s group also learned to strip possessions on the move. Mack and Irvin combined for 11 forced fumbles in 2016. It's a trend that may continue in the upcoming season.

Safety Reggie Nelson accounted for five interceptions in the previous season. Four of the five occurred on toss-ups on final possessions at the end of halves. He's not going to have same fortune in the upcoming year. He'll turn 34 years old in September, and it's imperative for him to rely on field awareness rather than quickness when tracking the football. 

Nelson will continue to hold on to the free safety spot. However, at this time, not based on past resume, Karl Joseph possesses the best skills to play center field as the deep safety. After a full offseason program, he'll have solid experience in the system, more confidence in his body after another year removed from an ACL tear and the physical ability to cover ground at a faster pace than his veteran counterpart. 

In 2018, the Raiders should shift Joseph over to free safety and Obi Melifonwu to strong safety in a full-time role. Together, the two would develop into a playmaking duo in the secondary, which would result in more takeaways.

Raiders: 4.5 Division Wins, Over

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In 2016, the Raiders swept the Los Angeles Chargers, split the season-series matchup with the Denver Broncos and dropped both games to the Kansas City Chiefs. For the upcoming season, the Silver and Black will dominate the AFC West and drop one division game at Arrowhead Stadium in December.

There's no disrespect to the Broncos defense or the Chargers' improving offense. Both teams will challenge the Raiders in different ways, but each club will go through a transition period with new coaching staff.

Head coach Anthony Lynn takes over in Los Angeles, and lead coach Vance Joseph will direct Denver in a new direction. The changes may well improve both squads, but something must be said for the Raiders' continuity coming off a 12-4 season.

Oakland will have a new face at the offensive coordinator position, but Todd Downing essentially earned a promotion. He's going into his third year with the team and served as Carr's quarterback coach before taking the current position. Norton didn't lose his defensive coordinator job, and John Pagano will serve as another assistant.

As the Raiders rivals acclimate to new systems, Oakland will fine-tune with familiarity.

Raiders: 11.5 Regular-Season Wins, Under

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Most fans predict 11 or 12 wins for the season. The added .5 forces those on the fence to take a stand.

According to 2016 win-loss records, the Raiders have the fourth-toughest schedule in 2017, per CBS Sports, which features six matchups against playoff teams from the previous year. For the upcoming campaign, they'll travel a much tougher road to a double-digit win total.

Oakland should start the season strong. Barring any significant injuries, head coach Jack Del Rio's group starts the year 7-2 at the very least. The schedule throws in tough opponents after the Week 10 bye.

The Raiders travel to Mexico City for an AFC showdown with the New England Patriots in Week 11. Then, there's a four-game stretch against teams playing in the AFC West and NFC East, which rank as the toughest divisions in the league. Expect a 2-2 split in a string of contests with rivals and playoff-caliber teams. 

Give or take a surprise win or loss along the way, the Raiders will finish with an 11-5 record and claim the AFC West crown for the first time since 2002. Oakland and Kansas City will go into the postseason with identical records, but a 5-1 division record would slot the Silver and Black atop the AFC West, assuming the Chiefs split a season series with the Chargers or Broncos.

Furthermore, this Raiders team will go into the postseason stronger than last year's 12-4 squad with a healthy starting quarterback and a battle-tested group. As mentioned, Oakland's schedule after the bye looks treacherous. Fortunately, it's a team that has witnessed year-to-year growth on the field since Del Rio's hire.