Irrational Conclusions to Draw from 2017 NBA Free Agency
NBA free agency is supposed to be measured and precise, evidence-based and detail-oriented.
But we're past all of that now.
Instead of meticulously studying the ramifications of cap holds, qualifying offers and partial Bird rights, we've reached the point of the offseason for wild, "what's it all mean?" speculation. Because while free agency itself is all about exacting financial management, the aftermath is more fanciful. And since we won't have games to prove or disprove theories for three months, it feels liberating to get imaginative.
The word "irrational" is in the headline here, so you know we're going to stretch the bounds of credulity. But within every recklessly bold leap, there's at least a morsel of truth.
So while all of these conclusions will require suspension of disbelief, a few of them may turn out to be true.
Nobody's Afraid of the Warriors
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This offseason's consolidation of star talent—most evident in Chris Paul joining the Houston Rockets and Gordon Hayward signing with the Boston Celtics—is indicative of a league-wide fear.
The Golden State Warriors were too good last season, and that understanding produced a choice for would-be challengers: Get a lot better, or lose badly.
Framed one way, the Rockets and Celtics (not to mention the Raptors, Wizards, Clippers and Thunder) made their moves out of fear. Nobody wants to get crushed.
But there's also a bravery within that fear. A willingness to fight against a seemingly insurmountable foe. A refusal to hide, tank or otherwise pack it in while waiting for a Warriors dynasty to burn out in 2021 or so.
This is one of the most invigorating developments of the summer: Instead of giving in to fear, several teams found strength in the challenge of opposing it.
The Rockets went out and built their own superteam, the Raptors paid big to keep their fringe contender intact, the Clippers didn't blow it up and on down the line.
Sure, other factors motivated these decisions. And yes, several teams will regret not submitting when their books are in rough shape a couple of seasons from now. But the common thread in all of them is a somewhat surprising fortitude.
The league isn't rolling over in the face of Golden State's looming dominance. It's loading up and digging in for a fight.
If last season turned off fans with its predictability, this is good news.
You can't knock a giant down if you don't take a swing, and more teams than expected look ready to try.
Centers Face Extinction
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Last summer's cap-spiked, funny-money free agency spending spree made it seem as if the waning importance of conventional centers had leveled off.
Andre Drummond signed a max extension. Ian Mahinmi and Timofey Mozgov got four-year, $64 million deals. The Orlando Magic paid Bismack Biyombo $72 million to be a backup behind Nikola Vucevic. Teams spent irresponsibly, but even in that briefly warped economic landscape, it looked like bigs who could patrol the lane and defend the rim were still worth paying.
This summer's free-agent attitude toward centers—even defensive-minded ones who would have cashed in a year ago–has cooled significantly.
Dewayne Dedmon, who is four years older than Biyombo, produced per-36 minute scoring, rebound and block rates this past season similar to the ones Biyombo put up in 2015-16. But all Dedmon got from the Atlanta Hawks was a two-year deal worth $14 million, according to Sam Amick of USA Today.
That's a far cry from $72 million.
Nerlens Noel, a defensive menace with tons of upside, remains unsigned. He's restricted and likely to stay with the Dallas Mavericks, but it's hard to imagine he would have lasted this long during last year's free agency without receiving an offer sheet from another team.
It's no secret the demand for centers has been on the decline for years. Versatility and three-point shooting didn't suddenly emerge as every team's top priorities this summer; they've been increasingly valuable for the last half-decade or so.
Still, the lack of interest in conventional centers is somewhat shocking.
Usually, a forward-thinking franchise will recognize a market inefficiency in situations like this. Somebody will wisely zig while everyone else is zagging. In this instance, that'd mean snatching up bigs at a discount.
But in a chilling sign for 5s, the San Antonio Spurs, who are always ahead of the curve, were the team that let Dedmon walk and still haven't brought back Pau Gasol.
We're witnessing the end stage of extinction for a once-vital position.
The Thunder Are Going to the Western Conference Finals
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From a narrative perspective, there's no other conclusion—rational or otherwise.
A year ago, the Oklahoma City Thunder were dead. Gutted. Victims of the NBA's unbalanced economic system and no small amount of small-market self-pity.
Kevin Durant was gone, and the sky was falling.
Now, Russell Westbrook is the reigning MVP, Paul George is in town for the comically low price of Victor Oladipo and Domantas Sabonis, Patrick Patterson signed one of the most team-friendly pacts of the offseason, and OKC is better equipped to defend the Golden State Warriors than any team in the league.
There's a motivational urgency at play as well.
George could walk in free agency next summer, and Westbrook's future in OKC will be hazy until he signs an extension. This might be the Thunder's last shot to do something meaningful before the true rebuild begins.
We have to keep last year's clutch luck in mind when trying to peg the Thunder's outlook for this season. Westbrook worked magic in close games, which was how OKC finished a dozen games above .500 while being outscored on a per-possession basis on the season.
Even if we assume the Thunder were truly a break-even club last year, their additions are so significant, so shrewd and so perfectly calibrated for use against the Dubs, it's not that difficult to see this team reaching the conference finals.
And who doesn't want to see Russ and KD square off in a big-stakes showdown?
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A Lakers Superteam Is Imminent
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In June, The Ringer's Kevin O'Connor reported LeBron James could wind up in Los Angeles a year from now. Those chances only look stronger in light of the Lakers' offseason decisions.
L.A. signed Kentavious Caldwell-Pope to a one-year deal that'll pay him $18 million this season and won't tie up a single cent next year. Add that transaction to the one that sent away D'Angelo Russell for Brook Lopez's expiring contract, and you have a telegraphed plan: The Lakers are hoarding cap space for 2018.
General manager Rob Pelinka said that was the idea before free agency even began, calling Los Angeles' cap financial flexibility next summer "sacred," according to ESPN's Ramona Shelburne.
What the Lakers intend to do with such clean books remains to be seen, but the sheer volume of money available is staggering. If they can get off Luol Deng and Jordan Clarkson's contracts, that's another $30 million freed up for 2018—when Lonzo Ball's nearly $7.5 million salary will be the biggest on the slate.
Does that mean Paul George, James or another max-level star are locked in and set to join Ball and Brandon Ingram?
George and James will be free agents along with Paul, DeMarcus Cousins and Westbrook (assuming nobody signs an extension before then) next summer.
The Lakers are making smart moves, and the Pelinka-Magic Johnson front office tandem is broadcasting stability and ambition in ways that should attract free agents just as strongly as the L.A. market always has.
This thing is happening, people. The Lakers are a year away from fielding a superteam.
The Spurs Are Taking a Breather
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Writing off the Spurs has always been the least rational thing to do.
They've always found ways to stay competitive when their roster hasn't screamed contention. Players always overperform there, and that should be the expectation again this season—even if free agency saw an already thin Spurs rotation lose Jonathon Simmons and Dedmon.
And that's to say nothing of the injury that'll keep Tony Parker out for a chunk of the season and Manu Ginobili's possible retirement.
If we were talking about a random 60-win conference finalist that did nothing more than sign Rudy Gay and his ruptured Achilles while other conference powers loaded up, it'd be completely rational to discount that team's prospects.
But the Spurs are different, which is what makes this conclusion fit here.
San Antonio doesn't take steps backward. It leans into perceived adversity and somehow makes positive progress. That could mean Davis Bertans becomes an All-Star. Or maybe Bryn Forbes leads the league in bench scoring all of a sudden. Kawhi Leonard could somehow take another step in his development.
The point is, history says the Spurs don't sit seasons out. So predicting they'll do exactly that qualifies as perhaps the least rational prediction of all.
Carmelo Anthony Will Play for the Knicks Through the 2056-57 Season
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This is just never going to end, is it?
We're all doomed to read reports suggesting Carmelo Anthony's long-awaited liberation from the New York Knicks is imminent...and then read more that kill the dream.
At this rate, we'll start the 2057-58 season with Anthony, somehow still under contract with the Knicks, rumored to be on the move to the New Houston Cold Fusion Reactors—a team run by Daryl Morey's half-cybernetic great nephew that plays its home games in Mars' third-largest market.
If a deal hasn't happened by now, why should we believe one ever will?
LeBron James Is Leaving the Cavs
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Speculative, unsourced dot-connecting is the best way to reach half-cocked conclusions, but sometimes the logic of conjecture is undeniable.
Which brings us to this: LeBron James won't be with the Cleveland Cavaliers after the 2017-18 season.
Owner Dan Gilbert refuses to pay top personnel executives, having never extended a general manger's contract and, most recently, letting David Griffin go despite James' endorsements. Not only does that approach project instability, it directly ticks off the one guy you cannot tick off.
When James left the Cavs the first time, Gilbert lambasted him.
When James came back, he was the one who looked like the bigger man.
And now that James has helped bring Cleveland a title—while Gilbert remains unchanged—he can leave again without fear of Cavs fans and Ohio residents hating him for it. They'll understand. They'll side with him.
They'll get the frustration James is feeling, which he is definitely feeling, according to Jeff Zillgitt of USA Today.
On the court, James has little reason to believe his team can improve enough to beat the Warriors. Cleveland made no meaningful additions—it turns out free agency without a GM in place is hard!—and will head into this season with roughly the same roster, only a year older.
Kyrie Irving is in his prime, while Love and James are toward the end of theirs. Everyone else of consequence on the team is in a part of his career arc where improvement is unlikely.
LeBron saw the decline ahead in Miami, and he bounced. He's smart enough to read the landscape now in Cleveland, and he should also have the added motivation of wanting to stick it to Gilbert with another exit—particularly in light of how the Cavs treated Griffin and failed to augment the talent base.
In short, the 2017 free-agency period gave James every reason he needed to leave in 2018.
Stats courtesy of Basketball Reference or NBA.com.
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