2017 World Series Odds for Every MLB Team at the All-Star Break
As MLB takes an All-Star-break breather, a clear crop of World Series contenders has surfaced above a crowd of playoff candidates.
Even if the entire American League stays alive well past the July 31 non-waiver trade deadline, one distinct favorite hovers a step over three other potent title threats. The National League, meanwhile, offers a simpler playoff picture beyond the mystery of what happened to the defending champions.
Baseball is rarely as easy as the best team's surviving the playoff gauntlet, but it happened last year when the Chicago Cubs snapped over a century of misery. While trying to prognosticate October baseball in July could confound anyone, that won't stop oddsmakers from dissecting each squad's playoff chances.
OddsShark unveiled updated odds to win the World Series on Monday. Although most projections make sense, a few squads are receiving too much love. Others deserve more.
Let's compare the Vegas lines with this author's personal projections to determine which squads are most likely to win it all this fall.
Slim to No Chance
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Yes, it's not over until it's over. These teams didn't hear a bell or a female vocalist's melody.
Not mathematically eliminated from the playoffs, they're technically still alive. But from a pragmatic standpoint, there's no chance any of these teams will win it all.
The National League teams listed below are miles away from the playoff picture. The two retooling American League squads, meanwhile, are at the bottom of a massive pile and poised to sell before the trade deadline.
- New York Mets (B/R odds: 400-1; OddsShark: 100-1)
- Pittsburgh Pirates (B/R: 400-1; OS: 100-1)
- Atlanta Braves (B/R: 600-1; OS: 150-1)
- Miami Marlins (B/R: 600-1: OS: 500-1)
- Cincinnati Reds (B/R: 600-1, OS: 500-1)
- Oakland Athletics (B/R: 999-1; OS: 500-1)
- Chicago White Sox (B/R: 999-1; OS: 500-1)
- San Francisco Giants (B/R: n/a, OS: n/a)
- Philadelphia Phillies (B/R: n/a; OS: n/a)
- San Diego Padres (B/R: n/a; OS: n/a)
Fringe American League Contenders
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Until any AL teams pull away with the wild-card spots, all of them will harbor dreams of making the play-in game.
All below .500 with negative run differentials, these teams are extreme long shots to win the World Series. Yet none of the Junior Circuit clubs are more than 6.5 games back from the second wild-card spot, so they're still credible postseason contestants.
Seattle Mariners (B/R odds: 85-1;ย OddsShark: 75-1)
The Seattle Mariners have the star power to catch fire, especially if the old Felix Hernandez returns. That's a big if, given his diminished velocity and elevatedcontact rate, but the offense could make some noise if the pitching staff does its part.
Toronto Blue Jays (B/R odds: 99-1; OddsShark: 50-1)
The Las Vegas data depicts the Toronto Blue Jays as the smart pick of the bunch. That has more to do with past results than current performance, as they're 41-47 with a minus-64 run differential.
In a lineup that features Josh Donaldson, Jose Bautista, Troy Tulowitzki and Kendrys Morales, only Justin Smoak is pulling his weight. The pitching staff, meanwhile, has watched Marco Estrada unravel and Aaron Sanchez surrender eight runs in his return from the disabled list. Some bounce-backs could spark a second-half surge, but they shouldn't receive more consideration because of previous playoff appearances with the departed Edwin Encarnacion in the heart of the batting order.
Los Angeles Angels (B/R odds: 99-1; OddsShark: 75-1)
Mike Trout will return Friday, the Los Angeles Angels' first game after the All-Star break, the Angels announced Sunday (h/t Bill Shaikin of the Los Angeles Times). That's tremendous news for a team that went 19-20 after he tore his thumb ligament in late May.
Yet as the Angels have discovered, even the best baseball player alive can't carry a mediocre team. Trout won't turn them into an offensive juggernaut, and he certainly doesn't fix their pitching woes.
Baltimore Orioles (B/R odds: 150-1; OddsShark: 75-1)
Any team that enters the All-Star break with a 5.07 team ERA shouldn't give much thought to a playoff chase. A minus-78 run differential suggests the Baltimore Orioles are closer to competing with the Chicago White Sox and Oakland Athletics for the AL's worst record.
Detroit Tigers (B/R odds: 150-1; OddsShark: 100-1)
The Detroit Tigers should sell if they still must leapfrog eight teams for a wild-card spot in two weeks. The star-dependent organization hasn't received enough production from its highly compensated veterans to compete, and J.D. Martinez would fetch a lavish return before hitting the open market this winter.
Minnesota Twins
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B/R odds: 70-1
OddsShark: 66-1
Out of respect for their 45-43 record, the Minnesota Twins avoided the Fringe AL Contenders section. Although they entered the All-Star break with a petite 2.5-game deficit behind the Cleveland Indians, they're still a long shot to make the postseason.
The young club has vastly overachieved its 38-50 Pythagorean record, an expected mark measured from its minus-60 run differential. Cleveland, meanwhile, is 47-40 with a plus-74 run differential and 51-36 Pythagorean record.
Only the Baltimore Orioles, New York Mets and Oakland Athletics have yielded more runs per game than Minnesota's 5.26. That's even though All-Star Ervin Santana has submitted a 2.99 ERA drastically below his 4.68 fielding independent pitching.
The rotation is a mess after Santana and Jose Berrios. Barring a Brian Dozier repeat of last year's second-half tear, the Twins don't possess enough offensive firepower around Miguel Sano. Even if they fall short of the postseason, playing any meaningful September baseball would mark a major accomplishment after finishing with MLB's worst record (59-103) last season.
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Texas Rangers
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B/R odds: 66-1
OddsShark: 75-1
The baseball gods giveth, and they taketh away. Bestowed with a 95-67 record last year not on par with a plus-eight run differential, the Texas Rangers are now 43-45 despite a plus-29 scoring margin.
That's the fifth-best rate in a feeble AL, and they won't need long to erase a three-game wild-card deficit. If they return from the break recharged, they can seek rotation help at the deadline instead of selling pending free agent Yu Darvish.
An injury-derailed first half from Adrian Beltre and underwhelming returns from Rougned Odor and Jonathan Lucroy haven't stalled an offense with MLB's sixth-most runs scored per game (5.05). Add a solid No. 3 starter, and nobody will want a postseason matchup with the Rangers regardless of their record.
Better luck in one-run gamesโthey're 6-14 in them after going 36-11 last yearโwould help the preseason contender close ground on a wild-card spot.
St. Louis Cardinals
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B/R odds: 55-1
OddsShark: 50-1
Last year, 86 wins weren't nearly enough for the St. Louis Cardinals to keep up with the Chicago Cubs. The NL Central foes now both trail the Milwaukee Brewers by 5.5 games at an underwhelming 43-45.
Matt Carpenter, Stephen Piscotty and the recently demoted Aledmys Diaz have fallen short of expectations, but Jedd Gyorko has sustained last year's second-half breakout. Tommy Pham and Paul DeJong won't stop hitting, and their 3.98 team ERA ranks sixth behind some of baseball's premier title contenders.
If the Cubs never wake up, the Cardinals can instead steal the division from the overperforming Brewers. As they proved in 2006, nobody should count them out if they sneak into the playoffs. After making the playoffs with 83 regular-season victories, they upended the 97-win Mets and 95-win Tigers en route to a championship.
Unless first baseman Luke Voit maintains his hot debut as St. Louis' latest out-of-nowhere breakout newcomer, the lineup needs another big bat to close the gap and fend off Chicago. It's not likely, but don't underestimate the Redbirds.
Kansas City Royals
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B/R odds: 55-1
OddsShark: 33-1
A June surge puts the Kansas City Royals front office in a confounding dilemma.
Seemingly left for dead when ending May eight games below .500, they entered the break at 44-43. Even if they're unlikely to catch Cleveland in the AL Central, management will have a tough time selling homegrown stars Eric Hosmer, Mike Moustakas and Lorenzo Cain while 1.5 games out of the second wild-card spot.
Per the Kansas City Star's Rustin Dodd, Royals general manager Dayton Moore does not sound ready to sell.
"I don't know if it's just one more chance," Moore said. "I don't know what the future is going to hold. I suspect that we'll have the opportunity to compete to bring a lot of our players back. I don't look at it as, 'This is the last chance.'"
A returning Danny Duffy should increase Moore's reluctance to sacrifice a playoff pursuit for future insurance. Yet it's a dangerous risk. Receiving little offense aside from their three upcoming free agents, the Royals rank No. 26 in weighted on-base average with baseball's worst walk rate (6.4 percent). They're still aggressive at the plate, but they're collectively hitting .248.
Tampa Bay Rays
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B/R odds: 50-1
OddsShark: 66-1
As the Boston Red Sox and New York Yankees continue hogging the headlines, remember that the Tampa Bay Rays can still win the AL East.
Both 3.5 games behind the Red Sox, the Rays and Yankees project to meet in the AL Wild Card Game. Don't be so quick to consider the Bronx Bombers favorites;ย Tampa Bayโwhich could send Chris Archer to the mound in Game 1โis one of four squads that has hit more home runs.
Pitching guided Tampa Bay's past contenders, but offense now leads the way. Shortly before the break, Brad Miller and Wilson Ramos returned to an unexpectedly loaded lineup benefiting from breakouts by Corey Dickerson, Steven Souza Jr., Logan Morrison, Mallex Smith and Tim Beckham.ย
Jacob Faria has boosted the rotation with a 2.11 ERA in six starts, and a shoddy bullpen received a needed jolt when Brad Boxberger made his season debut June 30. The former closer has quickly earned a prominent late-inning role by compiling seven strikeouts over four scoreless innings.
OddsShark isn't giving enough credit to Tampa Bay, a much more credible threat than Minnesota.ย
Milwaukee Brewers
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B/R odds: 34-1
OddsShark: 25-1
The Milwaukee Brewers aren't going away. They're only getting stronger, winning nine of their last 11 games before the respite.
It was easy to dismiss their NL Central lead in May, but they now boast a 5.5-game edge over the Cubs and Cardinals with the division's best run differential (plus-45). Their .331 wOBA ranks sixth, and only the Houston Astros have hit more home runs.
And yet they will spend the second half listening to everyone wonder whether they can sustain their hot start. Has MLB readjusted to Eric Thames? How is Eric Sogard suddenly an amazing hitter? Are Jimmy Nelson and Chase Anderson (currently on the DL)ย aces now?ย
Baseball Prospectus gives them a 46 percent probability of winning the division. FanGraphs, however, is dubious, awarding them a 20.6 percent chance and projecting a 45.6 rest-of-season winning percentage.ย
Even if they keep this pace, they're a tier behind the NL's other playoff probables. The possibility of a Cubs comeback also grounds the likelihood of an improbable title run, but the odds may continue to improve.
Colorado Rockies
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B/R odds: 33-1
OddsShark: 25-1
On June 20, the 47-26 Colorado Rockies led the NL West. Now they trail the Los Angeles Dodgers by 9.5 games.
FanGraphsย gives Colorado a 0.1 percent probability of reclaiming the division lead. In all likelihood, its postseason return will occur in a winner-take-all bout against the Arizona Diamondbacks, who can start Zack Greinke, Robbie Ray or even the stout Zack Godley.
Arizona only sports a two-game edge in the standings, but it has allowed 75 fewer runs in two fewer games. Away from Coors Field, Colorado carries a mundane .692 OPS.ย
The Rockies should have plenty of wiggle room to retain a wild-card spot, and anybody who makes the playoffs has a credible chance of seizing the Commissioner's Trophy. Yet even if they survive the Diamondbacks in the probable elimination game, they'd be considerable underdogs in a best-of-five series against the Dodgers or Washington Nationals, which would entail facing Clayton Kershaw or Max Scherzer at least once on the road.
New York Yankees
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B/R odds: 27-1
OddsShark: 14-1
Based on Pythagorean record, no team has underperformed more than the New York Yankees. Their plus-98 run differential, third in the majors, befits a 52-34 club rather than their 45-41 record.
But will they continue to score the second-most runs and yield the eighth-fewest runs per game? Health will largely determine the answer, as a barrage of injuries caused them to lose control of the AL East before the All-Star break. They're still waiting for Starlin Castro, Matt Holliday and Aaron Hicks to return from the disabled list, and Greg Bird hasn't played since May 1.
Yet pitching is their bigger concern. Michael Pineda has ceded five or more runs in four of his last seven starts. Luis Severino and Jordan Montgomery must prove their young arms can handle a full season. Having issued 26 walks in 28.1 innings, Dellin Betances is two free passes away from matching last year's tally accrued over 73 frames.ย
They needed to capitalize on their strong start by cashing in more victories. Now they're in grave danger of settling for their second AL Wild Card Game appearance in three years. That's enough to diminish their odds a bit below Vegas' line, but a lineup led by Aaron Judge will keep them in the title picture at full strength.
Chicago Cubs
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B/R odds: 20-1
OddsShark: 8-1
Vegas continues to respect the defending champions. Only four squads hold better odds of claiming the crown than the Chicago Cubs, who have suffered as many losses (45) as the Atlanta Braves.
Despite dynastic expectations, the Cubs have represented the epitome of average. MLB's only team to score the same amount of runs as allowed has approached the break No. 18 inย wOBA and No. 12 in FIP. Yet the half ended in spectacularly awful fashion, as Jon Lester surrendered 10 runs to the Pittsburgh Pirates before he could escape the first inning.
The benefit of the doubt will expire if they remain mired in mediocrity.ย Perhaps the same rotation that dominated last season will rediscover its groove while Ben Zobrist, Addison Russell and Kyle Schwarber hit better. Eventually they need to prove it.
Until then, this author can't credit them overly favorable odds. Yet they haven't lost many pieces from last year's dominant squad, so their ceiling is high enough to remain in the title picture.
Arizona Diamondbacks
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B/R odds: 12-1
OddsShark: 14-1
The Arizona Diamondbacks are very, very good.
It's only fitting for the World Series contender nobody's talking about to feature an MVP front-runner who somehow didn't even start the All-Star Game. Paul Goldschmidt entered the pause hitting .312/.428/.577 with 20 homers and an NL-best 73 runs scored. His .417 wOBA ranks fourth behind Aaron Judge, Joey Votto and Bryce Harper.
A.J. Pollock rejoined Goldschmidt and Jake Lamb in a potent lineup that has scored 5.01 runs per game, MLB's seventh-best mark. And yet pitching might be Arizona's true strength. Only the Dodgers have relinquished fewer runs per game with a superior staff ERA than the Diamondbacks, who play half of their games in an extreme hitters' park. Their adjusted ERA thus leads the majors.ย
Zack Greinke can navigate them through a probable play-in game with Robbie Ray, Taijuan Walker and Zack Godley following.
Fernando Rodney is a poor closer, but he's luckily the worst reliever in an otherwise strong bullpen. Hopefully managerย Torey Lovullo has the fortitude to turn to Archie Bradley and Andrew Chafin in high-leverage postseason spots, even if one happens to occur in the ninth inning.
Don't sleep on the Diamondbacks as a legitimate threat to the top tier of World Series favorites.
Washington Nationals
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B/R odds: 9-1
OddsShark: 7-1
The Washington Nationals wield sizable advantages.ย For starters, the postseason is a near certainty in a wretched NL East featuring no other winning squads. FanGraphs gives them a 97.6 percent probability of securing the division, and that feels overly cautious.
Once they arrive in October, they can lean heavily on aces Max Scherzer and Stephen Strasburg, the latter of whom has made one career postseason start despite playing for three division winners. It should surprise nobody that they lead the NL in team batting average, as Daniel Murphy, Ryan Zimmerman and Bryce Harper respectively occupy the Senior Circuit's top three spots.ย
Their bullpen problem, however, persists. No other relief unit carried a worse ERA into the midseason intermission than Washington's 5.20. The group has already blown 14 saves, which will probably cost the club an opportunity to claim home-field advantage over the Dodgers.
The Nationals need bullpen reinforcements to snap their streak of Division Series exits. And just adding one guy to close won't solve their Achilles' heel. Unless their starters go eight innings every time, a more stable ninth inning won't matter if the rest of the unit remains a mess.
Significant upgrades would increase Washington's odds, as it carries a championship-caliber lineup and rotation.ย
Boston Red Sox
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B/R odds: 9-1
OddsShark: 6-1
If former Cy Young Award winners David Price and Rick Porcello return to form, the Red Sox should hold off the Yankees for AL East supremacy. But a stellar pitching staff may not vault them back to their preseason-favorite status.
No title contender carries less power than the Boston Red Sox, who have hit 92 total home runs following David Ortiz's retirement. While their offense remains above league average, it's lacking when compared to MLB's premier contenders.
Third base lingers as the group's glaring weakness. While Travis Shaw rakes for Milwaukee, Boston has received an AL-worst .274 wOBA at the hot corner. Team president Dave Dombrowski needs to give serious thought to promoting top prospect Rafael Devers if the executive doesn't attain an upgrade before the trade deadline.
Even with a solid offense, they're among baseball's top teams due to pitching and defense. No club will want to see Chris Sale in a best-of-five or best-of-seven slate, and Craig Kimbrel could make a major postseason impact if used properly.ย
Yet the Red Sox aren't the only AL division leader touting a terrific one-two rotation punch, and the other two feature more complete rosters.
Cleveland Indians
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B/R odds: 7-1
OddsShark: 8-1
Unlike the Cubs, the Cleveland Indians have snapped out of an early funk and found their second gear.
Since falling to 31-31 on June 14, they went 16-9 to build a 2.5-game advantage over the Twins. No other AL Central club has a run differential better than minus-25, so Cleveland should expand that edge during the second half.
Edwin Encarnacion recovered from a feeble April. Rookies Bradley Zimmer and Mike Clevinger have stabilized areas of need. Corey Kluber has 82 strikeouts in his last eight starts, and Jose Ramirez has the same wOBA (.409) as Jose Altuve and Carlos Correa.
Once the playoffs roll around, manager Terry Francona will squeeze the most mileage he can from relief aces Andrew Miller and Cody Allen. He will also likely have a healthy Carlos Carrasco joining Kluber in the shortened rotation.
These Indians are better than the team that took the Cubs into extra innings of the World Series' Game 7 last year. Record aside, Cleveland deserves more reverence.
Houston Astros
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B/R odds: 17-3
OddsShark: 17-4
The Houston Astros can extend their vacation into late July, forfeit the ensuing games and still comfortably lead the AL West. Sporting a 16.5-game cushion and plus-162 run differential, they're poised to snatch their first division title since winning the NL Central in 2001.
Behind young studs Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa and George Springer, they lead the majors in batting average, on-base percentage, slugging percentage, runs, home runs and wOBA. After years of striking out more than most clubs, they have a 17.3 strikeout percentage, which represents MLB's lowest rate.ย
Despite a 4.09 ERA, their bullpen's 3.41 FIP ranks third with an MLB-best 11.4 strikeouts per nine innings. Will Harris, Ken Giles, Chris Devenski and perhaps Brad Peacock and/or Francis Martes if they find a No. 3 starter on the trade market is a unit built for postseason dominance.
Houston's lineup makes it the AL favorite even without a rotation upgrade. If the club turns its prospect surplus into an impact arm to join Lance McCullers Jr. and Dallas Keuchel, the Astros will look even more formidable than last year's Cubs.
Instead of being a jinx, Sports Illustrated may instead become prophets after featuring the 'Stros on the cover of a June 2014ย issue. Then again, a huge challenge could await Houston in the Fall Classic.
Los Angeles Dodgers
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B/R odds: 5-1
OddsShark: 15-4
The last time the Dodgers lost a game, Seinfeld was still on the air with infant Cody Bellinger none the wiser.
OK, that's not quite true. The Dodgers lost to the San Diego Padres on July 2, but they soared to 61-29 by winning a ridiculous 26 of their last 30 games. They rate fourth in wOBA thanks in large part to Bellinger, who keeps displaying feats of strength with 25 home runs in 70 games.
No team has yielded fewer runs than the Dodgers' 3.33 per game, and it's not all Clayton Kershaw. Alex Wood has a 1.67 ERA, and he should make at least one monumental postseason start. Rich Hill has rebounded from early struggles and blisters to record 35 strikeouts and six walks while surrendering five runs over his past four turns.
Kenley Jansen has paired 57 strikeouts with two walks. The Dodgers may have discovered a dominant bridge to their elite closer in Brandon Morrow, who has allowed three runs and collected 17 strikeouts in 14 innings since making his season debut in late May.
Spades of depth give them leeway to overcome injuries, most notably to Adrian Gonzalez. They also hoard an impressive crop of prospects they could leverage for an upgrade. Or perhaps Alex Verdugo, Willie Calhoun and/or Walker Buehler could instead help the major league club with a late-season promotion.
The Dodgers have loads of talent, both young and experienced, and infinite financial resources to spend when necessary. They haven't won an NL pennant since securing the World Series crown inย 1988โone year before Seinfeld's premiere and seven before Bellinger was bornโbut the smart money is on that changing this fall.
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