Predicting If Every Warriors Free Agent Stays or Goes in 2017 NBA Free Agency
The confetti has fallen, the champagne bottles are empty and it's back to business for the world champion Golden State Warriors.
Despite securing two titles in a three-year span, the Dubs have their fair share of work to do. Ten different players are headed for free agency, all of whom saw floor time during the 2017 NBA Finals.
This group won't return as is. There's already been a change with the arrival of second-rounder Jordan Bell, and the open market is sure to bring about more.
So, what should Warriors fans expect? Well, we've examined each player's situation and—by examining age, production, importance and likely market—predicted who will be back and who will have to seek out greener pastures elsewhere.
Matt Barnes
1 of 10
Age: 37
2016-17 Salary: $242,224
Notable Numbers: 5.7 points, 4.6 rebounds, 2.3 assists (with Warriors)
Matt Barnes returned to the Warriors as a bridge between eras (from "We Believe" to the Dubs dynasty) and a temporary replacement for an injured Kevin Durant.
Both tasks are complete, as Barnes' time back in the Bay should be.
The 37-year-old is not only past his prime, but he's struggling to remain even an emergency option. His player efficiency rating has fallen three of the past four seasons. He's had back-to-back sub-40 percent shooting years—the first two of his career. He's a tough defender in theory, but in reality opponents shot 1.1 percentage points better against him than they did on average (2.9 points in the playoffs).
The full-strength Warriors have no need for him, which they displayed by giving him a team-low nine minutes in the Finals. A younger player with more upside and less off-court baggage should grab his spot.
Prediction: Goes
James Michael McAdoo
2 of 10
Age: 24
2016-17 Salary: $980,431
Notable Numbers: 2.8 points, 1.8 rebounds, 8.8 minutes
If this is the end of the line for James Michael McAdoo, what a strange ride it's been.
Unable to carve a niche beyond versatile defender, he's never been a permanent rotation player over three seasons with Golden State. And yet, he's one of only six Warriors to play on each of the three finalists and made a smattering of appearances during important stretches of the past two championship rounds.
There's some safety with McAdoo—in a low-ceiling, moderate-floor kind of way. He stays within himself, expends all the energy he has and blends both explosive athleticism and hoops smarts.
But he's the definition of replaceable, especially if anyone thinks he's worth more than the minimum. With several more promising young bigs on the roster, McAdoo's tenure is likely coming to a close.
Prediction: Goes
Ian Clark
3 of 10
Age: 26
2016-17 Salary: $980,431
Notable Numbers: 6.8 points, 1.2 assists, 57.5 true shooting percentage
Two summers back, Ian Clark joined Golden State on a non-guaranteed deal in hopes of jump-starting his career. He had two NBA seasons under his belt by then but also paltry personal averages of 2.4 points (on 36.9 percent shooting), 0.5 assists and 6.9 minutes.
What a difference two years with the Dubs can make. The 6'3" combo guard now heads off into free agency on the heels of an eye-opening campaign during which he set career marks in virtually every counting category, PER (13.1) and true shooting percentage (57.5).
The market has apparently taken notice. Executives told The Vertical's Shams Charania they believe Clark could command more than the mid-level exception in free agency ($8.4 million, per Luke Adams of HoopsRumors.com)
Even if the Warriors really like Clark, they almost assuredly don't have the funds to like him that much. After all, they let Leandro Barbosa (two years, $8 million), Brandon Rush (one year, $3.5 million) and Justin Holiday (two years, $1.6 million) all walk for less.
Considering where Clark sat just a short while ago, expect him to strike while the iron is red-hot.
Prediction: Goes
David West
4 of 10
Age: 36
2016-17 Salary: $980,431
Notable Numbers: 4.6 points, 2.2 assists, 53.6 field-goal percentage
The stat sheet paints 2016-17 as one of the most forgettable seasons of David West's 14-year career. He'd never averaged fewer minutes than his 12.6 per game and hadn't averaged this few points since he was a non-lottery rookie.
But for what the Warriors needed, the 36-year-old was almost perfect. He emerged as an offensive focal point for the second unit, shattering his previous best with a 24.1 assist percentage and posting his second-best field-goal rate. And despite occasionally looking like he couldn't jump over a phone book, he proved a sturdy defensive presence, holding opponents to 48.5 percent shooting at the rim.
With his selflessness and basketball IQ, he can play movement-based offense in his sleep. That should keep him around, provided he's not ready to walk away yet. The Undefeated's Marc J. Spears broached that subject with him, and West was noncommittal.
"I don't know," he said. "I feel good. That's [what] everyone keeps asking me. I don't know."
Prediction: Stays
JaVale McGee
5 of 10
Age: 29
2016-17 Salary: $980,431
Notable Numbers: 6.1 points, 3.2 rebounds, 65.2 field-goal percentage
JaVale McGee arrived in Oakland as both an afterthought and a punchline, plagued by lengthy injury issues and a history of on-court gaffes. Credit the bouncy 7-footer for establishing himself as an integral rotation player for most of the year.
By coupling his freakish physical tools with relentless energy, he proved to be absurdly effective in short bursts. He tallied team highs in field-goal percentage, rebounds per 36 minutes (11.9) and blocks per 36 (3.3). His 23.0 points per 36 trailed only Kevin Durant, Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson.
"This is the best situation I've ever been, and I love it here," McGee told HoopsHype's Raul Barrigon. "But I definitely have to make the best decision for my family, I guess."
For as much as the Warriors loved throwing lob passes his way, McGee's best free-agency move is likely away from this group. Wart-covered past and all, his numbers will draw an inflated contract offer out of some size-starved front office. Once that happens, Golden State can slide his minutes over to Bell, Damian Jones or Kevon Looney.
Prediction: Goes
Zaza Pachulia
6 of 10
Age: 33
2016-17 Salary: $2,898,000
Notable Numbers: 6.1 points, 5.9 rebounds, 1.9 assists
Free agency might officially open in July, but Zaza Pachulia started lobbying to keep his spot in February.
"When people ask me about [free agency] this summer, I say, 'I'm not going anywhere. I'm staying here,'" Pachulia said, per Connor Letourneau of the San Francisco Chronicle. "Even after June, I'm staying here."
It's not surprising Pachulia would feel that way. As the fifth starter alongside four All-Stars, he found acres of empty real estate around the basket. He struggled finishing at times and still wound up with his best shooting year by nearly four percentage points. He never had to play above his head and clearly enjoyed being both a super-teamer and a champion.
Would the Warriors welcome him back? If the money is right (see: minimal) and no better options surface (see: a ring-chasing Nene, perhaps), they should be glad to keep him around. He can free up shooters with stone-wall screens (3.5 screen assists per game), he battles on the glass and his toughness helps give them an edge.
Prediction: Stays
Shaun Livingston
7 of 10
Age: 31
2016-17 Salary: $5,782,450
Notable Numbers: 5.1 points, 1.8 assists, 54.7 field-goal percentage
Free agency's siren song will sound particularly appealing to Shaun Livingston.
His role has been reduced to its lowest level with the Warriors—17.7 minutes in the regular season, 15.7 during the playoffs. Reserve playmaking duties have been doled out to others. His counting categories have dropped, dragging his PER down to a career-low 10.1. And Golden State's murky financial picture can't comfort the lowest-paid member of its small-ball nucleus.
"Dangling above-market money should get him to leave the Warriors," Dan Favale of Bleacher Report wrote. "... Money talks, and injuries cost Livingston a lot of cash earlier in his career."
Livingston could bolt, but it seems (slightly) more likely he stays. This offensive system suits him perfectly, spreading the floor for his post-ups and utilizing his IQ with a series of off-ball actions. Add in a seemingly annual pass to the Finals, and the Warriors can provide other perks other clubs can't.
Prediction: Stays
Andre Iguodala
8 of 10
Age: 33
2016-17 Salary: $11,131,368
Notable Numbers: 7.6 points, 4.0 rebounds, 3.4 assists
Andre Iguodala is a wanted man. Between his appeal as a lockdown defender and mistake-proof playmaker and other clubs' desires to weaken the Warriors, the 2015 Finals MVP enters free agency heavy on suitors. No fewer than seven external teams are interested, sources told ESPN.com's Chris Haynes.
Iguodala's box scores can put people to sleep, but his impact is often astronomical. He had this season's sixth highest plus-minus (plus-527) and the Finals' best fourth-quarter plus-minus (plus-25). He paced the league with a comical 4.5 assists per turnover. And at 33 years old, he remains a premier stopper, even when he draws the essentially impossible LeBron James assignment.
That's why there's a flood of interest. It's also why the Warriors will do everything they can to keep him around. They might have to jump through a few economic hoops to get something done, but as Tim Kawakami of the Bay Area News Group reported, the smart money says Iguodala stays:
"Obviously, Iguodala remains an immensely valuable player for the Warriors, especially when their main rivals feature LeBron James—go to Game 5 of the Finals for a reminder—and it's possible Iguodala could get a larger offer from another team.
"But he loves playing for the Warriors, loves the Silicon Valley connection, loves winning titles (which help out his potential Hall of Fame case), understands that he is extending his career by playing with so many stars, and if the Warriors step up with the number of years, this seems like a relative slam dunk."
Prediction: Stays
Stephen Curry
9 of 10
Age: 29
2016-17 Salary: $12,112,359
Notable Numbers: 25.3 points, 6.6 assists, 1.8 steals
Over eight seasons in Oakland, Stephen Curry has transformed from an oft-injured scoring guard to a two-time MVP and two-time world champion point guard. He owns the league's three highest single-season three-point totals, the second-highest true shooting percentage for a career 20-points-per-game scorer and the only unanimous MVP ever awarded.
Tack on the team's unprecedented success, and it's impossible to see any reason for him to leave.
"Like I've said from day one when I was first asked about free agency, this is a perfect place to play," Curry told Kawakami in January. "Bay Area fans are amazing, our organization's amazing, we've put together an amazing team that's competing for championships every year. There's really no reason that I can see right now that would draw me elsewhere."
This is a suspense-free journey into free agency, even down to the dollar amount. After playing worlds above his four-year, $44 million deal, Curry will surely get the super-max extension—about $205 million over five years—and probably put pen to paper once the Dubs are done dealing.
Prediction: Stays
Kevin Durant
10 of 10
Age: 28
2016-17 Salary: $26,540,100
Notable Numbers: 25.1 points, 8.3 rebounds, 4.8 assists
Imagine everything that happened these last 12 months with Kevin Durant—the backlash for leaving OKC, the frightening knee injury, the Game 3 dagger, the Finals MVP—were all done as part of a one-year rental.
You can't, right? Don't worry, you don't have to. While Durant will decline his player option, he'll only do so to ink a new pact with the Warriors, league sources told Haynes. He's also planning to wait to sign the deal until the franchise completes most of its offseason shopping, sources told ESPN.com's Marc Stein.
This season had to be everything Durant envisioned and then some. He set personal bests in rebounds, blocks (1.6), field-goal percentage (53.7) and true shooting percentage (65.1). He shined brightest on the biggest stage, punctuating his performance with a shot for the ages and the most coveted piece of individual hardware.
If Durant takes less than his absolute max, he can position the Warriors to potentially pay both Iguodala and Livingston. All signs to this point are that's exactly what Durant intends, while a megadeal with the Dubs likely awaits him next summer.
Prediction: Stays
Statistics used courtesy of NBA.com and Basketball Reference. Salary information obtained via Basketball Insiders.
Zach Buckley covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter: @ZachBuckleyNBA.
