2018 NBA Mock Draft: Early 1st-Round Predictions and Surprises for Top Prospects
Mocking the 2018 NBA draft is, inherently, an exercise in futility at this point.
We are less than a week removed from last Thursday's draft. Free agency hasn't begun, we're months removed from the beginning of the college basketball season, and most available film on top prospects consists of YouTube highlights with bad trap beats.
That said, basketball is an inherently predictable sport. Guys who were projected lottery picks a year ago wound up going there at a much higher rate than baseball, football or hockey. Basketball is basketball, and scouting services are so advanced in the modern era that the good players are found early and developed at the highest levels.
Some guys slip through the cracks and some never pan out, obviously, but we're actually not all that bad at this scouting thing. With full acknowledgement that the order of the teams picked could be horribly wrong, here's a look at how the 2018 draft would play out if it happened today.
2018 NBA Draft
1. Boston Celtics (via Brooklyn): Luka Doncic, G, Slovenia
2. Sacramento Kings: Michael Porter, F, Missouri
3. Chicago Bulls: DeAndre Ayton, F, Arizona
4. Indiana Pacers: Miles Bridges, F, Michigan State
5. Orlando Magic: Trevon Duval, G, Duke
6. Phoenix Suns: Mohamed Bamba, C, Texas
7. Philadelphia 76ers (via Lakers): Troy Brown, G, Oregon
8. New York Knicks: Wendell Carter, F, Duke
9. Dallas Mavericks: Robert Williams, F, Texas A&M
10. Phoenix Suns (via Miami): Hamidou Diallo, G, Kentucky
11. Atlanta Hawks: Kevin Knox, F, Kentucky
12. New Orleans Pelicans: Collin Sexton, G, Alabama
13. Portland Trail Blazers: Mitchell Robinson, C, Western Kentucky
14. Memphis Grizzlies: Jaren Jackson, F, Michigan State
15. Philadelphia 76ers: Rodions Kurucs, F, Latvia
16. Detroit Pistons: Gary Trent, G, Duke
17. Charlotte Hornets: Lonnie Walker, G, Miami
18. Atlanta Hawks (via Minnesota): Marques Boldin, C, Duke
19. Denver Nuggets: Justin Jackson, F, Maryland
20. Milwaukee Bucks: De'Anthony Melton, G, USC
21. Utah Jazz (via Oklahoma City): Kris Wilkes, F, UCLA
22. Toronto Raptors: Jarred Vanderbilt, F, Kentucky
23. Los Angeles Clippers: Moritz Wagner, F, Michigan
24. Utah Jazz: Grayson Allen, G, Duke
25. Washington Wizards: Malik Newman, G, Kansas
26. Boston Celtics: Allonzo Trier, G, Arizona
27. Portland Trail Blazers (via Cleveland): Tyus Battle, G, Syracuse
28. Houston Rockets: Rawle Alkins, F, Arizona
29. San Antonio Spurs: Landry Shamet, G, Wichita State
30. Golden State Warriors: Bruce Brown, G, Miami
Picks of Note
Get ready to hear a ton over the next 12 months about Doncic, who grades as the best international prospect in recent memory. The Slovenian guard is a ready-made NBA player from an offensive skills standpoint right now. He can stroke from out to three-point range, create for himself and others, and plays with an intelligence far beyond his 17 years.
The hype once given to Ricky Rubio, who is a good but fundamentally flawed player, is 100 percent deserved for Doncic. His defense needs some work and he's not going to throw down a 360-degree windmill, but there is no more complete player in this class.
What's more, unlike many international prospects, Doncic will enter the NBA with significant playing time at a high level. He got big-time minutes for Real Madrid this season and was an integral part of their run to the EuroLeague Final Four.
Barring injury, I don't see Doncic moving off from being my top player available in this class.
Sacramento Kings: Michael Porter, F, Missouri
Porter wound up shifting the college basketball landscape a bit for this upcoming season by flipping his commitment from Washington to Missouri. While it's unlikely he'll be taking a transitioning Tigers team deep into March, Markelle Fultz and Ben Simmons have proved NBA teams care not much about how your college team performs.
Missouri should provide Porter a bright spotlight to showcase his elite skills, which make him a potential No. 1 pick in his own right. Porter is a 6'10" small forward who can stretch the floor out to the three-point line, create his own shot off the dribble and finish near the rim.
His lankiness and skill set draw natural comparisons to Kevin Durant, but that's obviously unfair. Durant was a better player coming out of high school and is going to go down as one of the 25 best players in NBA history. Porter is more of a Durant Lite, and he's a better shot creator off the dribble than KD was at age 18.
It would not be a surprise to see Porter put up borderline transcendent numbers next season on a mediocre Missouri team.
Chicago Bulls: DeAndre Ayton, F, Arizona
If Ayton ever reaches his full potential, he can be a top-10, franchise-changing player. He's a fluid 7-foot athlete with a 7'6" wingspan who has three-point range, can soar above the rim and finishes with touch around the rim.
Basically, if you're creating a platonic ideal of a basketball player in 2017, Ayton's a good place to start. He could wind up being a modern version of Kevin Garnett if things break the right way.
Breaking the right way, however, is key. Ayton needs to add a ton of strength to his 243-pound frame and learn to finish better through contact. His size and athleticism allow him to dominate lesser competition at the prep level, and he's going to have to learn a bit of bully to become a better finisher.
The Bulls are in the midst of a full-scale rebuild, and Ayton is the type of player who fits in Fred Hoiberg's desired uptempo system. Bigs who can run and stretch the floor have become invaluable commodities around the NBA, so this would not be a half-bad spot to start building.
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