Everything You Need to Know About Miami Heat's 2017 NBA Draft
The Miami Heat hold the 14th and final lottery pick of the 2017 NBA draft. The significance of that depends on one's perspective.
Optimists see the selection as an extra boost to a team that paced the Eastern Conference in wins (30) and net efficiency rating (plus-6.4) over the 2016-17 season's second half. Pessimists paint it as not valuable enough, given the tremendous lottery odds the Heat held with an abysmal 11-30 record at the midway point.
What can't be disputed, though, is the rarity of this selection.
It's only the franchise's third lottery selection since snagging Dwyane Wade fifth overall in 2003 (Michael Beasley second in 2008, Justise Winslow 10th in 2015). It's also possibly Miami's only pick in a three-year window since it didn't have one in 2016, doesn't own a second-rounder until 2022 and traded away 2018's first (with top-seven protection).
All of that increases the pressure on president Pat Riley and Co. to get this right. Between this summer's whale hunt and previous pricey commitments made to Hassan Whiteside, Goran Dragic and Tyler Johnson, the need for cost-controlled young talent is glaring.
Only time knows whether Miami will be able to scratch that itch. But we have all the other relevant information about Thursday's draft—including a pick prediction—for the Heat.
Biggest Needs
Needs are never easy to identify ahead of free agency, nor is their draft-night importance clear given the best-player-available mentality.
But roster construction plays some kind of role in the discussion. If the Heat luck out and land Gordon Hayward in free agency, while already employing Winslow, then using the 14th pick on a small forward could be a wasted opportunity. Or if Miami passes on a power forward, then loses James Johnson to free agency, the position could be a crippling void going forward.
"We will probably pick the best player, depending on my thoughts on free agency and who's going to stay and who's not going to stay," Riley said at his season-ending press conference.
Ideally, that player will be able to shoot.
Miami's most potent offensive weapons are Dragic drives and Whiteside rolls to the rim, both of which require the proper spacing. Last season's team was solid, ranking 12th in both three-point makes (9.9 per game) and percentage (36.5).
But it benefitted from some uncharacteristically high shooting rates like Dragic's 40.5 (36.3 for his career) and Dion Waiters' 39.5 (34.6). Not to mention, three of the top four marksmen could be gone, as Waiters and Luke Babbitt are bound for free agency and Wayne Ellington's $6.3 million salary is non-guaranteed.
A sniper with size would make a lot of sense since it's hard for Whiteside to share the frontcourt with a non-shooter. And let's not forget the massive shadow left behind by Chris Bosh.
But three-and-D wings hold their own appeal.
Tyler Johnson is relentless on defense, but he can get bullied by bigger players. Josh Richardson sizzled from distance as a rookie but failed to ignite during his injury-riddled sophomore season. Winslow's next solid shooting season as a pro will be his first.
Assuming Willie Reed priced himself out of Miami's budget, the team will also need a backup 5. But that seems more a focus for free agency than a lottery target.
Top Prospects
Judging by the mock-draft landscape, the Heat don't have a favorite in this class. Six different sites connect them to six different players.
B/R's Jonathan Wasserman has the Heat getting stretch big Lauri Markkanen out of Arizona. The Finnish 7-footer averaged 15.6 points on 49.2 percent shooting (42.3 percent from three) and 7.2 rebounds during his lone season with the Wildcats.
"Miami would likely celebrate if Markkanen fell to give them a sniper alongside Hassan Whiteside," Wasserman wrote.
Staying in the frontcourt, CBS Sports' Reid Forgrave mocked Gonzaga 7-footer Zach Collins to Miami, while NBA.com's Scott Howard-Cooper has Duke's Harry Giles as the pick. UCLA's TJ Leaf auditioned for the Heat, who like his "size and outside shooting ability," according to Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald. Wake Forest's John Collins—who spent his prep career in West Palm Beach—has also worked out in Miami.
All of these players could run the 4, and most have three-point range. That they would interest the Heat should surprise no one.
The projected picks diversify from there.
ESPN's Chad Ford links the Heat with Louisville's Donovan Mitchell. Through squinted eyes, the 6'3" guard with the 6'10" wingspan reminds some of a superstar from Miami's very recent past.
"His elite athleticism, length and game give him a passing resemblance to a young Dwyane Wade," Ford wrote. "I don't think he has that same ceiling, but his talent is definitely worth taking a risk on here."
Sports Illustrated's Jeremy Woo has Duke's Luke Kennard—perhaps the draft's best shooter—landing at 14. For Fox Sports' Andrew Lynch, Indiana's OG Anunoby is the choice. If the former Hoosier isn't already one of coach Erik Spoelstra's favorites, he could get there in short order:
Rumor Roundup
If excitement awaits the Heat this offseason, it seems most likely to surface in free agency.
Is there a chance Miami makes a move Thursday? Sure. Riley is unpredictable, and he has a history of treating draft picks as trade currency.
But if the Heat are involved in a draft-night deal, they're probably just purchasing a second-round pick.
"We will look at it as we could obtain a second-round pick," Heat vice president of player personnel Chet Kammerer said, per Ira Winderman of the Sun Sentinel. "... What would cause us to probably become more aggressive that night is if we had someone picked in the late 20s and he's still there at 40 or something."
If the Heat need a Reed replacement, that could be a clever way to find one.
Sorry if that's boring, but it's hard to see the Heat finding their way into the juicier rumors.
Even on a rental, Miami would love to have a two-way force like Paul George. But the franchise lacks the trade tools needed to pry him away from the Indiana Pacers.
The 14th pick and filler won't get a deal done. The Heat can't sweeten their offer with more picks since the only first- or second-round picks they can move are for the 2023 draft.
Winslow would be a likely target for Indy, but his combination of youth, playmaking and defensive versatility is too rich to sacrifice for potentially one season of George. Richardson probably doesn't have the pedigree to move the needle, plus Miami views him and Winslow as building blocks.
"Those two players are part of our future, a big part of our future," Riley said.
And forget about acquiring Jimmy Butler, either. All of the above applies, plus he's expressed interest in remaining with the Chicago Bulls, league sources told ESPN.com's Marc Stein.
The Heat seem (correctly) committed to hunting big game in free agency. That way, they could build to their core without giving up critical components.
On that front, Miami is "loading up" for its pursuit of All-Star swingman Gordon Hayward, league sources told ESPN.com's Zach Lowe. The Heat have also been linked to Serbian point guard Milos Teodosic—voted by general managers as the best international player not in the NBA—by the Russian news agency TASS, via Brian Lewis of the New York Post.
Prediction
With 13 selections made before theirs, there's probably going to be a difference between the player the Heat want and the one they actually get.
Their realistic-and-optimistic big board probably starts with Markkanen and Zach Collins, I'd guess in that order. While Collins has a better two-way game, Markkanen's superior shooting makes him a better fit with Whiteside.
But given the current interest in floor-spacing 7-footers, it seems more likely than not that neither is on the board.
It'd be tempting to buy low on Giles—three knee surgeries in four years—or Anunoby—ACL tear in January—but this doesn't feel like a gambling year. Not with so many future picks already traded away.
The Heat should focus on finding a sure thing, which in my opinion will lead them to Kennard.
His lights-out stroke will allow him to enter the NBA with an elite skill. He's a dead-eye sniper on or off the ball, who hit 2.4 triples a night at a 43.8 percent clip as a sophomore.
Even if the rest of his game can't translate, he'll bring value as a spacer and offensive safety valve. (Ellington was a catch-and-shoot specialist and still made the offense 3.1 points better per 100 possessions.) If the Heat find a front-line free agent to team with Dragic and Whiteside, they'll be committed to win-now mode. Kennard can help with that as a rookie.
But the 20-year-old can become more than just a shooter.
He punished defenses from all three levels at Duke, leading the team with 19.5 points per game—almost three more than projected top-five pick Jayson Tatum. Kennard can create offense for himself or his teammates off the dribble and hardly ever turns the ball over. His hoops IQ is advanced for his age, and he showcased his toughness as a standout quarterback in high school.
He's neither an explosive athlete nor a lock-down defender. But the Heat already have multiples of both on their perimeter, plus Whiteside for extra insurance on the defensive end.
Kennard isn't perfect, but if he was, he'd be off the board long before Miami made its pick. Assuming he's there at No. 14, he could join the Heat as both the best player available and a need-filler.
Quotes obtained firsthand unless otherwise noted. Statistics used courtesy of NBA.com and Basketball-Reference.com. Salary information obtained via Basketball Insiders.
Zach Buckley covers the Miami Heat for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter: @ZachBuckleyNBA.
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