College Football Teams Facing Playoff-or-Bust Expectations in 2017
Most programs would be ecstatic about the opportunity to compete in the 2017 College Football Playoff, but for the likes of Alabama, Florida State and Ohio State, a trip to the national semifinals feels like more of a requirement than an aspiration.
What follows is a list of the eight teams most desperately seeking a spot in the selection committee's top four this December.
For some of these programs, playing for a title has become a way of life—anything less would feel like a failure. Others came on strong last year and are trying to ride that momentum into a title push. Some need to capitalize on this year's combination of roster and schedule to make a lasting mark before it's too late.
Regardless of the reason, these are the college football teams under the most pressure to win at least a dozen games in 2017.
Honorable Mentions
1 of 9
Auburn Tigers
After three consecutive seasons with at least five losses, Gus Malzahn will enter 2017 on one of the hottest seats in the country. But with a schedule that includes games at Clemson, at LSU, vs. Georgia and vs. Alabama, demanding a trip to the College Football Playoff is a bit much. The Tigers had better win at least one of those games, though, if they want to keep their coach for another year.
Clemson Tigers
Dabo Swinney has this program on one heck of a run with 60 wins over the past five years, including an active streak of two national championship appearances. However, with question marks at quarterback, running back and several key defensive positions, a slight step backward in preparation for a huge run in 2018 would probably be OK with this fanbase.
Georgia Bulldogs
With 10 returning starters on defense as well as a great offensive core of Jacob Eason, Nick Chubb and Sony Michel, Georgia has the pieces to win it all. At this point, though, fans of the Dawgs would be happy with meeting national preseason expectations for a change, which should be a ranking in the No. 10-15 range. Despite appearing in 15 consecutive preseason AP polls, Georgia was unranked at the end of five of the past eight seasons.
Louisville Cardinals
In what will almost certainly be Lamar Jackson's last collegiate season, Louisville's window of potential greatness is closing. But College Football Playoff or bust? The bar isn't that high for the Cardinals. They could get there, but another 9-4 season wouldn't be the end of the world.
Michigan Wolverines
2016 was the year Michigan was supposed to get the job done. In 2017, Wolverines fans will be hoping they don't slip too far after losing 17 starters. Like Louisville, Michigan could make the playoffs. Heck, it would be irresponsible to suggest Jim Harbaugh couldn't lead this team to a Big Ten title and a spot in the selection committee's top four. But anything more than a third consecutive 10-win season would be gravy, not mandatory.
Oklahoma Sooners
The Sooners probably would have made the cut if Bob Stoops didn't decide to retire earlier this month. Expectations are still sky high for this team, but winning at least 10 games for the 15th time in 18 years to get Lincoln Riley's career as a head coach off to a promising start would be good enough to serve as a successful season.
Alabama Crimson Tide
2 of 9
If you're at all surprised to see Alabama on this list, you must be brand new to college football.
The Crimson Tide have won four of the last eight national championships and played in a fifth. They have spent at least one week at No. 1 in the AP poll in nine consecutive seasons and have opened each of the past seven years at No. 3 or better. It's an understatement that this program expects to be one of the top four in the nation on an annual basis.
2017 will be no different, as three consecutive trips to the College Football Playoff merely intensified Alabama's thirst for a fourth appearance.
The Crimson Tide lost a bunch of key players to the NFL, including first-round draft picks Marlon Humphrey, Jonathan Allen, O.J. Howard and Reuben Foster. But they also retained stars like Jalen Hurts, Bo Scarbrough, Calvin Ridley and Minkah Fitzpatrick. Remaining dominant in the face of attrition is hardly a new phenomenon for Nick Saban.
Despite facing three opponents (Florida State, LSU and Auburn) with strong national championship aspirations of their own—not to mention the high-caliber opponent the Crimson Tide would face in the SEC Championship Game if they can get there again—they will likely enter the season as the singular favorites to win the national championship. Should they fail to reach the national semifinals, it would be a massive letdown.
Florida State Seminoles
3 of 9
If both teams have it their way, the season opener between Alabama and Florida State will be a fun preview of an eventual pairing in the College Football Playoff.
Despite losing Dalvin Cook and DeMarcus Walker, the Seminoles are loaded on both sides of the ball.
A defensive front seven built around Josh Sweat, Brian Burns, Derrick Nnadi and Matthew Thomas will be a terror for opposing rushing attacks. Best of luck throwing the ball against a secondary anchored by Tarvarus McFadden and Derwin James, though. On offense, look for Jacques Patrick and Cam Akers to jointly replace Cook while Deondre Francois—hopefully behind an offensive line that tries to protect him for a change—puts up big numbers in the passing game.
Fans of the 'Noles hope that will be enough to reclaim their spot atop the ACC.
They had a 29-game winning streak just a few years ago, winning the BCS title in 2013 before earning the No. 3 seed in the 2014 CFP. But they have lost at least three games in each of the past two seasons and weren't a factor in the playoff picture either season. That's unacceptable in Tallahassee, and it would be a major problem for Jimbo Fisher if that skid extends to a third year—particularly given how dominant this roster could be.
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LSU Tigers
4 of 9
Les Miles won a national championship and 77 percent of his games in more than 11 seasons with LSU, but that wasn't enough to save his job with a program that expects more on an annual basis. After four straight years of losing multiple SEC games and starting 2-2 in 2016, the Tigers finally decided they had to move on in order to reach the College Football Playoff.
Can Ed Orgeron get it done in his first full season as the head coach? If not, how long will it be until he's on the same hot seat as his predecessor?
Despite losing some great pieces to the NFL, LSU has a strong core to build around. Derrius Guice, Arden Key and Donte Jackson are established studs, and Kevin Toliver, D.J. Chark and Rashard Lawrence are all dripping with breakout potential.
Per usual, the big question mark lies at quarterback. Whether it's Danny Etling, Lindsey Scott or Justin McMillan, LSU will enter the 2017 season with arguably the weakest starting QB in the SEC West. New offensive coordinator Matt Canada is expected to revolutionize what the Tigers do on offense, but one of those three guys will be responsible for running the show on the field.
If one of them can move the ball at all against Alabama, that would be a huge change of pace for the Tigers and would give them a great shot at the SEC title—which almost automatically comes with a trip to the CFP semifinals.
Ohio State Buckeyes
5 of 9
Like Alabama, national championship expectations have become par for the course at Ohio State.
The Buckeyes have won at least 11 games in each of the past five seasons. Were it not for a postseason ban in 2012 and losses to Michigan State late in both the 2013 and 2015 campaigns, they almost certainly would have been invited to the 2012 and 2013 BCS championship games as well as the last three College Football Playoffs.
As is, they have been on one heck of a run under Urban Meyer, winning 91 percent of their last 67 games. With 15 returning starters from last season, Ohio State expects to win at least 91 percent of its games again this year.
The Buckeyes bring back just about every offensive and defensive lineman from last season, as well as their top two rushers, Mike Weber and J.T. Barrett. They were already amassing 121.4 more rushing yards per game than their opposition, and they only got better in the trenches. Finishing the 2017 season with a rushing margin of at least 2,000 yards is a realistic goal.
Whether they reach the College Football Playoff will come down to whether the secondary can do enough to slow down Heisman candidates at QB, Baker Mayfield and Trace McSorley. But considering the games against Oklahoma and Penn State are both at home, the Buckeyes should be favored to win every game this season. Failing to finish in the top four in the eyes of the selection committee would be a sizable setback for this program.
Oklahoma State Cowboys
6 of 9
With at least 10 wins in five of the last seven seasons, Oklahoma State has spent most of the 2010s on the doorstep of greatness. In 2011, the Cowboys missed out on playing in the BCS Championship Game by a painfully slim margin. Last year, they were denied the opportunity to vie for a spot in the CFP because of a Central Michigan Hail Mary on a play that never should have been allowed to happen.
While Mike Gundy's grip on the title of "greatest hair among college football coaches" remains tighter than ever, Oklahoma State's window to play for a national championship appears to be closing after this season.
For starters, the Cowboys will be losing a ton of key players as graduates, including QB Mason Rudolph, WR James Washington and defensive leaders Tre Flowers, Ramon Richards, Chad Whitener and Tralund Webber.
If they were still recruiting as well as they were at the beginning of the decade, maybe they would be able to stomach those losses. Oklahoma State secured top-25 recruiting classes each year from 2010 to 2014, including three years in the top 20. However, it has ranked 40th or worse at the end of each of the last three National Signing Days.
As a result, it's now or never for the Cowboys, even though Vegas thinks their chances of winning the championship are the worst of all the teams on this list.
Penn State Nittany Lions
7 of 9
Had you said in early October 2016 that Penn State would be one of the top preseason candidates to win it all in 2017, you would have been locked up in a straitjacket. At that time, it had been 58 months since the Nittany Lions last appeared in the AP Top 25, and they were still reeling from early-season losses to Pittsburgh and Michigan.
However, they finished the regular season on a nine-game winning streak to win the Big Ten and nearly earn a spot in the CFP, so expectations for Penn State are as high as they were on an annual basis in the 1990s.
According to OddsShark, there are 18 players with better than 40-to-1 odds of winning the Heisman Trophy, but only two teams are represented twice on that list: Alabama (Jalen Hurts and Bo Scarbrough) and Penn State (Trace McSorley and Saquon Barkley). It's primarily because of that junior-year dynamic duo that the Nittany Lions have such high hopes.
McSorley will probably return for a senior year in 2018. However, this will almost certainly be their last season to put the ball in Barkley's hands, and they need to make the most of it. Getting to the Rose Bowl for the first time since 2008 was a huge step in the right direction, but Happy Valley will be sad if the No. 5 team in last year's final CFP rankings is unable to finish a bit higher this season.
USC Trojans
8 of 9
USC lost a lot of last year's top assets, including three starting offensive linemen, its top two receivers and arguably its two best defensive backs.
Given the way last season ended, though, how could the Trojans have anything other than national championship aspirations for 2017?
They finished the year on a nine-game winning streak, including a road victory over then-unbeaten Washington and a thrilling fourth-quarter comeback in the Rose Bowl against Penn State. They averaged 39.9 points per game during that stretch, cementing QB Sam Darnold as the odds-on preseason favorite to be named the next Heisman winner.
The kicker is that this is the year for that No. 1 recruiting class in 2015 to take over. According to Scout, USC signed eight of the top 50 and 12 of the top 100 high school players that year, each of whom is now entering either his junior or redshirt sophomore season.
Guys like Iman Marshall, Rasheem Green, Chuma Edoga and Ronald Jones who were already making a major impact ought to become stars. Others like Marvell Tell, Ykili Ross and Dominic Davis should fill some of the aforementioned holes.
On behalf of USC fans, here's hoping this year of high expectations amounts to something for a change. The Trojans were No. 1 in the 2012 preseason AP Top 25 and No. 8 in 2015, but they lost six games in each of those seasons to finish unranked.
Washington Huskies
9 of 9
On the one hand, Washington fans are still thrilled with how last season played out. After going 15 years between 10-win seasons, the Huskies flirted with perfection for more than two months before earning the fourth and final spot in the 2016 CFP. Under normal circumstances, it was the type of campaign that would give a program and its coach a multiyear grace period before needing to compete for a title again.
On the other hand, Washington was a year ahead of schedule in winning a dozen games with sophomores at both quarterback and running back, and it has one of the easiest schedules in the country for a second straight season.
The Huskies play their nonconference games against Rutgers, Montana and Fresno State. They don't face USC during the regular season. And their games against Oregon, UCLA, Utah and Washington State all come at home. The road game against Stanford might be the only time prior to the Pac-12 Championship Game that Washington isn't favored by at least a touchdown.
Thus, if the Huskies fail to even play for the conference title, the 2017 season will feel like a colossal disappointment. Conversely, if Jake Browning and company do win at least 11 games in the process of winning the Pac-12 North only to miss out on the CFP by losing to USC for a second straight season, that would also be a deflating finish.
So much for that grace period. Rather, Washington raised the bar last season. It is now expected to be one of the two best teams west of Texas and one of the top contenders for the College Football Playoff.
Unless otherwise noted, stats are courtesy of Sports Reference and cfbstats.com.
Kerry Miller covers college football and college basketball for Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter @kerrancejames.
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