Playing Keep or Trade with Every Lottery Pick in the NBA Draft
Apparently, the Philadelphia 76ers and Boston Celtics got out ahead of us and played their own game of "Keep or Trade" leading into the 2017 NBA draft.
Spoiler: They decided to trade.
That exchange, ticketing Markelle Fultz for the Sixers and sending the No. 3 pick (plus future assets) to Boston, could be the start of an active predraft slate. And by the time we get to draft night Thursday, the picks and future considerations could be flying around like mad.
It's tough to give up a top-end selection. That's how great teams are built.
At the same time, just as there's always money in the banana stand, there's always value later in the lottery.
Kawhi Leonard, Paul George, Klay Thompson—all recent examples of how picks well outside the top five can make major differences. Players such as those prove you can get your guy by moving out of prime position and trusting your scouting.
Who should dare to move down and collect a few extra goodies in the process? Who should climb the lottery ranks to snag a favorite target?
And who should sit on their hands and avoid transacting altogether?
Let's play.
1. Boston Celtics
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In light of recent events, it'd be a little strange if the suggestion here were to keep the pick.
The Boston Celtics pulled the trigger on a deal to send their top overall selection to the Philadelphia 76ers. In return, the Celts get Philly's No. 3 pick and either the Los Angeles Lakers' first-rounder in 2018 (protected Nos. 2-5) or the more favorable 2019 first-rounder of the Sixers or Sacramento Kings.
We can conclude that Boston doesn't believe Markelle Fultz is a transcendent star, though we might also surmise the Celtics are adding more draft assets in anticipation of making a bigger trade for an established name.
We'll see.
If any part of Boston's decision to pass on Fultz and trade down has to do with believing Isaiah Thomas is the future at the point, this was a mistake. Thomas' 5'9" size means he won't age well, he cannot possibly play better than he did in 2016-17, and it'll cost max money to keep him as a free agent in 2018.
No team has moved the top pick before the draft since the Orlando Magic did it in 1993, so this is a big deal.
At the same time, Boston isn't like the rest of the clubs populating the high lottery. It's two months removed from the Eastern Conference Finals and will be a good bet to go that far again—even if it doesn't add a star via trade or free agency.
Normally, giving up the top selection (especially when all it nets is more picks), seems like a mistake. Because the Celtics are no ordinary lottery team, it's defensible in this case.
Verdict: Trade(d)
2. Los Angeles Lakers
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If you get past the SoCal ties, weeks of posturing (on both sides) and seeming fait accompli of Lonzo Ball's winding up with the Lakers, you might make it to the point where you realize the UCLA product's talent makes him a serious value at this draft slot.
That's not always something you get to say about a potential No. 2 overall pick, but ESPN's Kevin Pelton likes Ball to produce more wins above replacement than any other incoming rookie—Fultz included.
The father-who-shall-not-be-named-because-it-only-makes-him-stronger is an issue, and an annoyance. But Ball has the game to justify peripheral nonsense.
You can't watch him anticipate his teammates' movements, seemingly guide them into space and then set them up with telekinetic passes and not think of Jason Kidd.
Unless the Lakers think they can move down and still land Ball at, say, No. 4 in a trade with the Phoenix Suns, keeping this pick makes the most sense. Maybe Josh Jackson or Jonathan Isaac would be tempting here, particularly if the Lakers want to avoid the Ball circus. But with Paul George targeting a 2018 arrival, moving down to snag a forward loses some of its appeal for L.A.
Verdict: Keep
3. Philadelphia 76ers
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For the Celtics, the big predraft trade was justifiable.
Get past the shocking rarity of dealing the top overall pick, and you could rationalize it: GM Danny Ainge liked Jackson more than anyone else available. Boston wasn't going to give Fultz big minutes, and adding the point guard would have created a strange heir-apparent dynamic between him and Thomas.
So...you know...it was fine.
For the Sixers, though, the move was a no-doubt tape-measure shot off the plaza level. A 600-foot home run.
Maybe part of this is the pure joygasm of all those collected assets finally manifesting themselves in a difference-making move. Philadelphia stockpiled picks under Sam Hinkie, and it's almost viscerally gratifying to see them become something tangible.
Then again, perhaps it's the fit that makes this deal sing.
Fultz is a dynamic scorer at three levels who can run the pick-and-roll or spot up away from the ball. He's a score-first thinker, which makes him an ideal teammate for Ben Simmons, who always looks to facilitate.
The Simmons-Joel Embiid pick-and-roll or pick-and-pop was always going to be clunky because of Simmons' nonthreatening stroke. Now, the Sixers have a natural scoring guard to run the league's staple play with Embiid.
This is too much fun to suggest anything other than what actually happened.
Verdict: Trade(d)
4. Phoenix Suns
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We told the Lakers not to trade back in the draft in a deal with the Suns, so we're obviously going to suggest Phoenix goes for it.
Imagine Ball (taken by the Suns after trading up to No. 2) running an uptempo attack with Devin Booker, Marquese Chriss and Dragan Bender filling lanes. Granted, you'd have to be imagining the year 2019 or so for that picture to also include the Suns winning the game, but it's enticing all the same.
Everybody wants wings, and a Phoenix move up for a point guard runs counter to the three-and-D revolution. But the Suns could probably work the market with the suddenly expendable Eric Bledsoe to address that. Besides, Bledsoe doesn't fit the Suns' new ultra-young core in this hypothetical.
He's trade bait now.
Phoenix shouldn't pull the trigger here if it involves sacrificing a future lottery pick. But if all it takes is eating a bad contract (think Timofey Mozgov or Luol Deng) to climb two spots, it'd be worth it. And don't discount the Lakers' wanting to get off as much bad money as they can before George shows up. They'll need to pay him and whatever other stars his arrival attracts.
Verdict: Trade
5. Sacramento Kings
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The Kings must deliberate, pore over every detail no matter how irrelevant and consult all the best minds in their organization. Spiritual guidance from religious leaders would also be fine. If there are life coaches available to weigh in, even better.
But Sacramento must engage every possible resource. It must search deep within the organization's figurative heart for an answer.
And then, when there's consensus, when the correct decision crystalizes after interminable study and painstaking care, the Kings should do the exact opposite of whatever they determine is the best course.
It's the safest way to avoid mistakes.
Because if we know anything about the Kings under owner Vivek Ranadive, it's that they screw up draft picks and trades at a world-class level. They are the Golden State Warriors of doing things wrong.
That can change.
If they adopt this approach and apply it to every decision—not just whether to trade or keep their two lottery picks—just watch the Kings become a winner in no time.
Seriously, though, Kings: You've got two top-10 picks. Don't trade up. Take your two cracks at a franchise-changer and hope one pans out. If you're lucky, Jackson might even fall to this spot if the Celtics get frisky and snag Jayson Tatum at No. 3.
Verdict: The Opposite
Alternate Verdict: Keep
6. Orlando Magic
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We've already seen one trade and suggested another, so it's hard to know who'll be here for the Orlando Magic.
Still, there's a good chance Tatum or Isaac will be available. It's tempting to just tell the Magic to take whichever of those two is on the board and move on. But what if the Denver Nuggets come calling with a package involving their 13th overall pick and a future selection?
That's what I'm doing if I'm Denver—hoping to snag Isaac to play with Nikola Jokic up front.
In that scenario, the Magic should punt this draft, take the 13th selection and target some additional future picks for their trouble.
This is a team without a cornerstone, one that botches transactions and draft picks on the regular. The Magic gave up Maurice Harkless for nothing, reached too high for Mario Hezonja (No. 5 overall), overpaid for a rental of Serge Ibaka, and on and on and on.
So why not get some extra bites at the apple in this draft and either next year's or the one in 2019?
This is a sneakily good season to tank. The Lakers and Nets don't have their own picks in 2018, so they're unlikely to bottom out. The Sixers are through with deliberate losing. So the Magic should accumulate assets, mail in 2017-18 and hope to snag the top spot next year.
New Magic GM John Hammond might be reluctant to give up on his first season with the team, and he's talking as if he's got someone he likes at No. 6.
Maybe Orlando believes in its new front office, but they should trade back and think two or three years down the road.
Verdict: Trade
7. Minnesota Timberwolves
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Minnesota Timberwolves head coach Tom Thibodeau will never play rookies big minutes, so trading up to get another high-profile first-year player is probably a bad idea. Moving down might make sense if the Wolves aren't in love with anyone specific, but we're nearing a point in the draft where it feels like a dozen guys all occupy the same tier.
That could make it hard to find a trade partner willing to pay the premium it takes to climb a few spots.
So why not stand pat?
Minnesota has options at No. 7. It could snag a skilled forward such as Lauri Markkanen—or Isaac if he's still on the board. It could target Dennis Smith Jr. or De'Aaron Fox to back up (or play ahead of Kris Dunn) if there's a Ricky Rubio trade in the works.
Chances are Frank Ntilikina will be there, too, if the Wolves want to get international.
Point being: Minnesota has lots of good options and might not have much to choose from in the way of offers to swap downward.
Verdict: (KUBO) Keep unless bowled over
8. New York Knicks
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It was tempting to save the whole "do the opposite" schtick from the Kings section for the mostly hapless New York Knicks, but it wouldn't have been fair.
Say what you want about the Knicks, but don't make the mistake of knocking their draft record.
OK, fine. They've only made one pick since 2014, but that was Kristaps Porzingis at No. 4 in 2015. If you think about it, New York is batting 1.000 over the last two seasons.
Anyway, the Knicks are dialing in on French 18-year-old Frank Ntilikina as their point guard of the future, per the New York Daily News' Stefan Bondy. If he's there, he's a solid pick. Though raw, possessed of a shaky handle and needing serious growth as a passer, Ntilikina is big, athletic and projects as a fantastic defender.
In case you haven't been paying attention, New York is in need of someone who'll get a stop once in a while.
As we'll cover momentarily, the Dallas Mavericks want Ntilikina, too.
But unless the Mavs are ready to surrender at least a future first-rounder to move up (which they probably aren't for a one-spot jump), the Knicks should hang on to this one.
Verdict: Keep
9. Dallas Mavericks
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The Dallas Mavericks have Seth Curry as a stopgap point guard on the cheap, and they could go after Rubio or Jrue Holiday if they're committed to competing this season. They don't need to fall all over themselves in pursuit of Ntilikina.
But it seems as though they've got their eye on him, according to ESPN's Chad Ford, who reports Vincent Collet, Ntilikina's coach at Strasbourg, will be running the show for Dallas' Orlando Summer League Team.
How convenient...
As long as Dirk Nowitzki's around, the Mavericks will probably keep trying to win games. At the same time, Nowitzki just turned 39, so Dallas knows this year-to-year tinkering won't last forever. If Ntilikina is Dallas' guy, and if it doesn't cost too much in the way of future assets to move up one spot, a deal with the Knicks makes sense.
It might even work to send the ninth pick and Curry to New York for No. 8—especially if Dallas is going to seek out a starter to play ahead of Ntilikina on the free-agent market anyway.
Go for it, Mavs. If you're trading with the Knicks, history says you've got a good shot at winning the deal.
Verdict: Trade (But expect New York to pass)
10. Sacramento Kings
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We already hit the Kings at No. 5, encouraging them not to trust their instincts.
But now we've got them again, and instead of taking potshots, let's offer a more measured reason for them to keep both of their top-10 selections.
Not only will there be quality options available at both spots, and not only do the Kings need as many lottery tickets in the draft as possible (free agency has never been Sacramento's best path forward), but there's also a philosophical motivation. A question, actually.
How do they want to be viewed?
Trading on draft day would feel like such an on-brand Kings move. It would be a little reckless and probably ill-advised. So as Sacramento bolsters its front office and strives to gain respect around the league, holding steady is the best way to project an image of capability.
According to Ailene Voisin of the Sacramento Bee, even now, the Kings are on the right track:
"Dave Joerger's coaching staff is experienced, respected, present. The recent additions of analytics expert Luke Bornn and assistant GM Scott Perry provide a cohesiveness in the front office. And based on conversations with several scouts, general managers and former players, Perry already has restored some credibility to the organization's reputation."
That's good!
Keep it up. Hope Smith Jr. or Monk is available here, and snatch him.
Verdict: Keep
11. Charlotte Hornets
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If North Carolina's Justin Jackson is on the board here, which he probably will be, is Charlotte Hornets owner Michael Jordan going to pick up the red phone that's on his desk (or golf cart dashboard) and green light Operation Tar Heel?
Jackson is a do-a-bit-of-everything guy with considerable polish and significantly improved three-point shooting. If the 6'8" wing's leap to 37 percent from deep as a junior is real, the Hornets could justify taking him regardless of collegiate affiliation.
Markkanen or Zach Collins could also be available, and the Hornets desperately need big men to back up Cody Zeller—whose shoulder injury last season basically turned Charlotte from a postseason contender into a lottery team.
What about Donovan Mitchell, though?
The Louisville guard looks a little like Avery Bradley in style and could fit perfectly alongside Kemba Walker because of his ability to guard either backcourt position. If he's ready to contribute immediately, maybe Charlotte could also get off Nicolas Batum's contract and save some cash.
Ultimately, the Hornets have their 10 highest-paid players from last year still under contract. They're gunning for a playoff spot because A) they won 48 games in 2015-16 and B) they staunchly refuse to rebuild.
So it's a good thing they've got several options who could contribute quickly.
Hang on to this one, Hornets.
Verdict: Keep
12. Detroit Pistons
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If the Hornets pass on Mitchell, he's a good fit for the Detroit Pistons, who might be in the market for a guard if restricted free agent Kentavious Caldwell-Pope signs an offer sheet too rich to match.
Mitchell has the defensive pedigree Stan Van Gundy likes, and he wowed at the combine, according to Rod Beard of the Detroit News: "He has outstanding physical and athletic qualities. At 6-foot-3, he has a 6-10 wingspan, as well as the top three-quarter-court sprint (3.01 seconds) and standing vertical leap (36.5) at the combine last month."
Otherwise, Detroit should look to trade down and add multiple young pieces to a payroll that will probably soon be clogged with $100 million deals for Andre Drummond and KCP.
If the Portland Trail Blazers wanted someone such as Markkanen or Collins and offered their 15th and 26th picks for Detroit's No. 12, that's a deal worth doing.
Who knows? Detroit might be able to grab Duke shooting guard Luke Kennard at No. 15 if he slips, and then get the guy it thought it was getting in Stanley Johnson by taking versatile SMU wing Semi Ojeleye at No. 26.
There are a million ifs involved here, but the overarching point is the Pistons need to freshen up their roster and add enough flexibility to potentially pivot away from some of their overpaid "cornerstones." Getting multiples picks is one way to do that.
Verdict: Trade (Unless Mitchell is there)
13. Denver Nuggets
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OG Anunoby is probably going to be available at this spot, which makes angling for a Denver Nuggets trade difficult.
Anunoby, a physical forward who showed the tools to defend four positions at Indiana, might have the best defensive potential in the draft. Denver was one of the league's worst defensive teams this past season, wasting an elite offense because it couldn't get enough stops for all that scoring to matter.
Last year's torn ACL is a concern, but Anunoby is the smart selection here, as he addresses a key need and has massive upside because of his fit as a modern multi-position defender.
But I also kind of want to see the Nuggets score some more.
If Isaac is around at No. 7, the Nugs should package Wilson Chandler and their pick to move up and snag the Seminole big man with the T-Wolves' selection. Isaac has the ability to defend nearly as well (if not quite as physically) as Anunoby, and he projects as a better floor-stretcher whose feel and offensive I.Q. would be tantalizing alongside Nikola Jokic.
If you're the Wolves, you've got to think hard about adding Chandler to play some stretch 4 alongside Karl-Anthony Towns, plus a solid pick.
Yeah, the Nuggets will need to institute a defensive culture at some point. But I'd rather see them win a bunch of 125-115 games for the next few years.
A trade up for Isaac could make that a reality.
Lean into offense, Denver. You know you want to.
Verdict: Trade
14. Miami Heat
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For the Miami Heat to continue their top-dollar free-agent pursuits, they need to pepper in some cheap, team-controlled assets to keep overall roster costs low.
So they shouldn't trade this pick for present help. If there's an opportunity to trade down, maybe that's reasonable. But then again, the Heat have been pretty good (and lucky) in spots like this.
Remember Justise Winslow's slide to No. 10 in 2015?
That's why praying Collins, Kennard or Jackson slips is the best course. Any of those three could fill a role, with Kennard being especially handy as a possible Dion Waiters replacement.
Waiters is a free agent, and while his rebirth in Miami makes it hard to root for a breakup, the calculated move for the Heat is letting someone else overpay and then backfilling Waiters' spot with a better shooter like Kennard. The Duke product could nicely space the floor around a Goran Dragic-Hassan Whiteside pick-and-roll.
Miami can still go out and woo free agents Gordon Hayward or Paul Millsap. In fact, it will. That's what the Heat do.
But it needs to keep (and nail) this pick, too.
Verdict: Keep
Stats courtesy of Basketball Reference or NBA.com.
