Key Adjustments Needed for Cavs and Warriors Heading into Game 3
The Cleveland Cavaliers' biggest adjustment heading into Game 3 of the 2017 NBA Finals is simple: win.
Dredge up all the 3-1 jokes from 2016 you like, but understand that no historical precedent for resiliency, however recent, gives Cleveland a shot to climb out of a 3-0 hole. It's not happening.
In light of what we saw during Games 1 and 2, securing a win Wednesday seems impossible.
Remember, though, that the Warriors won the first two games of last year's Finals by a combined 48 points. That lends some perspective to this year's plus-41 margin heading into Game 3. It also fosters some semblance of hope for the Cavs.
These Dubs are different from the 2016 edition. They're better. Scarier. Deeper. Seemingly angrier.
That's part of the reason why suggesting adjustments for them feels somewhat ridiculous.
Still, the Warriors aren't perfect. They've admitted as much following both contests, and though those admissions should worry the Cavs—getting smoked by a team that could be playing better sure sucks the life out of comeback talk—it allows Cleveland a couple of potential weak points to exploit.
Game 3 won't officially decide the series, but it will determine whether the Cavaliers' faint hopes glimmer a tad longer...or get snuffed out altogether.
Cavaliers: Slow It Down
1 of 7So far, the pace in the Finals has been faster than both teams' regular-season rates.
Cleveland played at a pace of 98.38 possessions per 48 minutes during the year, which ranked 16th in the league. Golden State's figure of 102.24 ranked fourth. Through the first two games of the Finals, these teams have been playing at the breakneck speed of 105.49.
Try to guess which one is more comfortable with that kind of end-to-end action.
We saw the horrors (from Cleveland's perspective) of a Warriors team turning every miss and steal into transition dunks in Game 1, and the Cavs surrendered another 31 fast-break points in Game 2. Cleveland has plenty of three-point shooting and good transition scorers, but any increase in tempo disproportionately benefits the Warriors.
The Cavs have to slow down the pace in Game 3 and make it ugly.
Remember 2015, when LeBron James put on a grind-it-out one-man show and somehow took two games from the Dubs despite not having Kyrie Irving or Kevin Love for all but one game? That series was played at a pace of 94.78 possessions per 48 minutes, which would have ranked 27th in the league this season.
In the 2016 Finals, Cleveland slowed the proceedings nearly as effectively, putting the brakes on to the tune of 95.38 possessions per 48 minutes. That helped it win the series.
Nobody's saying the Cavs should avoid running entirely. But when easy buckets aren't there in transition, Cleveland must milk the clock and force a decelerated pace.
Otherwise, the Cavaliers are sprinting toward destruction.
Warriors: Cut the Turnovers
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Game 1, a "where'd that come from?" four-turnover shocker, was the exception.
Game 2's 20 giveaways were the rule.
"Welcome back, coach," Steve Kerr quipped to reporters afterward, nodding to the way his team celebrated his return to the sideline by squandering possessions in precisely the manner that drives him up the wall.
In the latter contest, the Warriors coughed up 20 turnovers, several via on-brand negligence. With Stephen Curry, who had eight turnovers Sunday, some of the lax ball-handling was enough to make one wonder whether the stakes of the Finals even registered in his mind.
If we've learned anything in this three-year run, it's that no scenario is so urgent or important that the Warriors won't fling around the occasional lollipop pass or heave bullets at teammates who aren't looking. Toeing the line between casual and careless has taken Golden State a long way, and it may be something Kerr never excises from their makeup.
Drawing a roadmap to a Cavs victory in Game 3 is tough, but any guide will have to include a first half like we saw from Golden State in Game 2, when it allowed the Cavs to feast on 10 steals.
Curry knows he has to be better. But he's known that all along, and his mistake-prone style remains an issue.
The Warriors proved they could win despite nonchalance of epidemic proportions in Game 2. Expecting it to work out that way every time is dangerous.
Cavaliers: Post Up LeBron
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Yes, it'll minimize Kyrie Irving's isolation game.
Sure, it turns Kevin Love back into the standstill shooter roundly panned during his early days with the Cavs.
But for Cleveland to achieve several goals at once—slow the pace, invite foul trouble from key Warriors defenders, free up three-point marksmen and allow the world's best player full control to decide the series—posting up James is the way to do it.
Over the first two games, James has taken just one shot from the post, and that one—a leaning fadeaway from beyond the right block—barely fits the criteria. While the efficacy of James in the post has more to do with inviting double-teams and passing out of them than scoring himself, him having shot only once from the post shows just how infrequently he's been in that position.
Ideally, the Cavs could get James into the block on a smaller defender via a switch. But the way Golden State has played screens so far makes that tough. Whenever Curry is involved, he "tags" James and scampers back to his own man.
For obvious reasons, the Warriors don't want any part of Curry defending James one-on-one.
Still, no single Dubs defender is a match for James down low, and help will have to come from somewhere. Trust James to find the vacated shooter with a perfect pass.
That puts a lot of pressure on Cleveland's role players to knock down shots. Even if they don't catch fire, at least getting James touches near the hoop in stagnant sets will muck up the game a bit—which can only help the Cavs.
Warriors: Break Out the Pick-and-Rolls
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Wide swaths of Golden State fans have lamented the team's relative lack of pick-and-roll sets all year. Whenever anything goes wrong, the cry for more such plays increases in volume.
Curry and Draymond Green are unstoppable in those situations, presenting only bad options for a defense.
Trap, and Green has the ball going downhill in a four-on-three scenario. Switch, and Curry cooks the big man. Go under, and you're getting threes rained on your head. Chase Curry over the top, and watch him slither into the lane for floaters or kickouts to shooters.
It's a lose-lose-lose-lose conundrum. A question without an answer. A problem nobody can solve.
The Warriors can now run it with Kevin Durant, too.
If Cleveland manages to gum up the works in transition, stemming the tide of Golden State's fast-break onslaught, the Warriors may be best served giving the people what they want.
Kerr has resisted heavy usage of the league's leading offensive staple, preferring off-ball cutting and a more flowing system of player movement. During the regular season, Golden State ranked dead last in plays finished by the pick-and-roll ball-handler and the roll man. In the playoffs, the Warriors are last and second-to-last on such plays, respectively.
They just don't like playing that way—even if presenting Irving with any kind of screen regularly eliminates him from the play.
It's difficult to fault the Warriors' preferences, what with this being perhaps the most terrifying offense in league history and all. But as a fallback option in the face of what should be a more committed Cleveland defense, breaking out the pick-and-roll is a good way to go.
Cavaliers: Make Tristan Thompson a Factor
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"Trash. Trash. I have to be better. I have to bring more energy, make it tough for them."
That was Tristan Thompson, via Steve Aschburner of NBA.com, before Game 2, when he scored eight points and collected four rebounds in only 21 minutes. He was out of the rotation in the second half, which meant he'd gone from being self-described trash to something much worse: a nonfactor.
That can't continue if the Cavs have any hope of winning Game 3.
Broadly, Cleveland is unlike Golden State in that it can't afford a key role-player not playing his role. Klay Thompson can go cold for a game or Green can wind up in foul trouble, and the Dubs have enough talent elsewhere to compensate.
But with Thompson nullified, the Cavs don't have a backup plan.
He must impact the paint on defense and control the glass on offense. If the Warriors resort to more pick-and-roll play, his skills as a perimeter stopper against smalls will be the key to successfully switching.
Cleveland's avenues to victory are few, but Thompson is involved in most of them. Killing small-ball lineups depends on him inhaling every miss and creating second-chance opportunities, and his rim defense makes it possible for the rest of the Cavs to stay home on the Warriors' shooters.
Zaza Pachulia's physicality has largely neutered Thompson's boardwork, but that just means Cleveland should deploy him differently. Whenever JaVale McGee or David West get into the game, that's a chance for Thompson to reassume his dominant place under the boards.
So far, Golden State's offensive rebound rate is marginally higher than Cleveland's in the series. That shocking advantage ties directly to Thompson's ineffectiveness and cannot continue if the Cavs are going to make this a series.
Warriors: Trust the Death Lineup
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All year, the Warriors have treated their small-ball lineups like an emergency response system—a measure only to be deployed when circumstances are dire.
In Game 3, they should use smaller units, particularly the vaunted Death Lineup, preemptively.
The Cavs are going to bring a renewed focus and intensity at home. They'll probably get a better whistle. They'll be desperate.
Instead of trying things the usual way until the unusual is necessary, the Warriors should be ready to downsize at the earliest possible opportunity.
Curry, Thompson, Andre Iguodala, Durant and Green have played just four minutes together in the first two games of the Finals. Predictably, they've amassed a plus-30.1 net rating in that short stretch. It's difficult to suggest rotation changes in the wake of two blowout wins, but we know how unstoppable Golden State's five-out fivesome can be. We've specifically seen how the Cavs struggle to slow down transition offense and stay glued to shooters through the Warriors' persistent screening and cutting in the half court.
Getting that group more minutes forces the Cavs to confront the two defensive tasks they've been worst at so far.
The Death Lineup kills everyone, but it's almost perfectly designed to end Cleveland's fleeting title hopes.
Cavaliers: Pray
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Golden State shot 42.5 percent in Game 1 while Thompson and Green combined to hit six of their 28 attempts, yet the Cavs lost by 22 points.
Despite forcing 20 Warriors turnovers in Game 2, the Cavs lost by 19.
Those results highlighted a devastating truth for Cleveland: Golden State can do several key things wrong and log blowout wins regardless.
Suppose Cleveland pushes all the right buttons. Imagine it crushes the Warriors on the boards, mucks up the game, hits half of its three-point attempts and slows the pace. The Cavs could still lose Game 3 for a litany of reasons.
Maybe Durant explodes for 50. Maybe Curry hits 10 threes. Maybe Thompson pumps in 25 points in a quarter. Maybe Green defends five Cavs at once while screaming at three refs, Tyronn Lue and the popcorn vender.
Trim away all the strategic ins and outs, scrap nuance and understand the rock-bottom truth as it is: The Cavs are up against an offense they can't stop...even when they stop it.
You should win if you force 20 turnovers.
You should win if you hold an offensive juggernaut to 42.5 percent shooting.
But "should" doesn't apply here. It's out the window with the rest of the conventional rules—smashed into pieces by a collection of talent unlike any we've seen.
Cleveland can win Game 3. James is the individual embodiment of what the Warriors represent in the team concept: skilled enough to overcome anything.
So far, though, this series has shown a Cavs team with no earthly way to stop the Warriors. Calling in a celestial favor can't hurt.
Stats courtesy of Basketball Reference or NBA.com. Accurate through games played June 6.
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