Predicting New England Patriots' Stat Leaders in 2017
If there's one thing we know for certain about the New England Patriots, it's that winning means more than any individual statistic.
LeGarrette Blount rushed for over 1,000 yards and 18 touchdowns last season—pretty impressive numbers—but the team didn't make him an offseason priority. Why? Because the team felt that other options would give them a better chance of winning.
However, this doesn't mean the Patriots—and their fans—aren't going to pay attention to individual statistics. You've probably run into at least one fan who pointed to Tom Brady's 28 touchdowns and just two interceptions last season during an MVP debate.
This doesn't mean fans—and the Patriots—aren't interested in what some individual stats are going to look like in the future. Everyone wants to know if Brandin Cooks is going to rack up enough yards to justify his first-round price tag or if Rob Gronkowski is going to return from injury with a bang (and maybe 1,000 yards).
We're going to try to peer ahead here and predict the statistical leaders for the Patriots this season. We'll make predictions for the top three players in each major statistical category and provide analysis and reasoning for each.
Passing Leaders
1 of 6
Tom Brady: 5,125 Yards, 42 TDs, 7 INTs
Jimmy Garoppolo: 200 Yards, 1 TD, 1 INT
Jacoby Brissett: N/A
Barring an unforeseen injury, Brady is going to take just about every offensive snap for the Patriots in 2017. The simple fact is that in Brady, New England has one of the greatest quarterbacks in league history—even if Brady disagrees.
"I really believe if a lot of people were in my shoes they could accomplish the same kinds of things," Brady said, per Ian O'Conner of ESPN.com. "So I've been very fortunate. ... I don't ever want to be the weak link."
Brady is never going to be the weak link on the Patriots offense. In fact, he's the biggest strength. He passed for more than 3,500 yards with 28 touchdowns in just 12 games last year while being rated first overall among all quarterbacks by Pro Football Focus.
There is no reason for Brady to come off the field unless there's a blowout involved. If that's the case, the Patriots are probably going to look to run out the clock with the ground game. Backup Jimmy Garoppolo may see his most playing time in the season finale—depending on what there is left to play for.
It would be a shock to see Brissett on the field at all after the postseason.
Rushing Leaders
2 of 6
Mike Gillislee: 168 Attempts, 773 Yards, 8 TDs, 4.6 YPC
Rex Burkhead: 122 Attempts, 549 Yards, 6 TDs, 4.5 YPC
James White: 49 Attempts, 201 YDS, 3 TDs, 4.3 YPC
Blount rushed for more than 1,000 yards in 2016, but he only averaged 3.9 yards per carry. This is perhaps why the Patriots looked instead toward more efficient backs like Mike Gillislee of the Buffalo Bills and former Cincinnati Bengals back Rex Burkhead.
The folks at Football Outsiders rated Gillislee and Burkhead first and second, respectively, in rushing efficiency on a per-play basis.
At 219 pounds, Gillislee is likely best suited to handle the bulk of the rushing, though he and Burkhead will probably still see something like a 60-40 split when it comes to carries. Together, they should be more productive than Blount was last season. Apart, neither is likely to reach stardom.
Sorry, fantasy enthusiasts, I know that's a bummer.
James White should keep a role similar to the one he had last year as a runner. He was one of the top receivers on the team with 60 catches but only logged 39 carries on the year. If he sees a bigger role at all, it's to further make up for Blount's departure.
Receiving Leaders
3 of 6
Brandin Cooks: 88 Receptions, 1,320 Yards, 8 TDs
Julian Edelman: 90 Receptions, 1,017 Yards, 5 TDs
Rob Gronkowski: 65 Receptions, 975 Yards, 10 TDs
The Patriots haven't had the best of luck drafting receivers in recent years—though Malcolm Mitchell was a pleasant surprise last season—so the team traded for one instead. By adding Cooks from the New Orleans Saints, New England has given Brady a legitimate deep threat with which to stretch the field.
Expect Cooks to see a few more targets than the 78 he was in New Orleans last season—and even more opportunities to produce big plays.
Edelman should again lead the Patriots in receptions, as he has grown into Brady's most trusted target. He doesn't bring the kind of game-breaking ability to the field that Cooks does, but Edelman will often be the guy in clutch situations.
"He's a playmaker," Cooks said of Edelman, per Kevin Duffy of MassLive.com.
Star tight end Rob Gronkowski should fit somewhere between the two roles. He's a reliable pass-catcher for sure, and he also brings deep-threat ability. However, I believe his yards-per-catch average will be closer to the 15.0 mark he holds for his career than the ridiculous 21.6 yards-per-carry average he produced last season.
Given his prowess in the red zone, no one should be surprised to see Gronk lead the team in receiving touchdowns.
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Tackle Leaders
4 of 6
Devin McCourty: 85 Tackles
Patrick Chung: 70 Tackles
Dont'a Hightower: 65 Tackles
Here's a fact you might find surprising: The three leading tacklers for New England in 2016—Logan Ryan, Patrick Chung and Devin McCourtey—were all defensive backs. There are two primary reasons for this. One is that opposing teams were often throwing the ball in an effort to come from behind. The other is that the Patriots' linebacker and defensive line rotations rarely kept the same players on the field.
Linebacker Dont'a Hightower was the big exception in the front seven, and he finished fourth on the team with 65 tackles.
Chung led the Patriots with 91 tackles in 2016, though I think he'll see a slight step back in production as third safety Duron Harmon sees a rise in playing time. With this in mind, it wouldn't be surprising to see free safety McCourty—who had 83 tackles a year ago—take over the leading-tackler spot.
Hopefully, the Patriots won't see a cornerback making 92 tackles on the season the way the departed Ryan did in 2016. If so, this likely means that corner is getting beaten on a consistent basis.
Sack Leaders
5 of 6
Trey Flowers: 11.0 Sacks
Kony Ealy: 6.5 Sacks
Derek Rivers: 5.5 Sacks
Here's another fact you might find surprising: While the Patriots were good on defense in 2016—with a league-best 15.6 points per game allowed—they weren't good at getting after opposing quarterbacks.
Pro Football Focus rated the team just 24th in pass rush last season. New England produced just 34 sacks in total while defensive end Trey Flowers led the defense with a mere 7.0 sacks.
There's room for improvement in the pass rush, and I believe the Patriots will see it. The trade for former Carolina Panthers defensive end Kony Ealy and the drafting of edge-rusher Derek Flowers should each play a role.
While Ealy has never produced eye-opening sack numbers—he has 10.0 over the past two seasons—he should provide a consistent presence opposite Flowers in base packages. Flowers was in a bit of a three-man end rotation with Jabaal Sheard and Chris Long (the two combined for 9.0 sacks) last year. According to Pro Football Focus, Flowers only saw 564 defensive snaps in the regular season.
If the Patriots rely less on rotation at end, Flowers should see an increased role in 2017—and that should equal more sacks. Ealy should see a slight increase in production given the propensity of opposing teams to pass. Rivers, meanwhile, should see some solid production—especially later in his rookie campaign—as a situational speed-rusher.
Interception Leaders
6 of 6
Stephon Gilmore: 6 INT
Malcolm Butler: 4 INT
Devin McCourty: 4 INT
Believe it or not, the Patriots defense only came away with 13 interceptions during the regular season, tied for 15th-most in the NFL. Considering how dominant the Patriots defense could be at times, it often felt like the team was forcing turnovers at a higher rate.
Still, 13 is a respectable number and I would expect that number to increase with an improved pass rush and the addition of Pro Bowl cornerback Stephon Gilmore.
Gilmore should be one of the biggest beneficiaries of the new pairing, as teams are likely to target him in an effort to avoid cornerback Malcolm Butler—who was rated fifth among cornerbacks by Pro Football Focus last season. Gilmore should see an increase in statistics, including interceptions. He had five last season.
Of course, with Butler and Gilmore both on the field, opposing teams are going to be looking for other areas in the secondary to exploit. This means a few third and fourth cornerbacks may occasionally get burned, but it should also increase opportunities for safeties like Devin McCourty.
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