NBA Draft 2017: Latest Mock Draft, Biggest Boom-or-Bust 1st-Round Prospects

Before every NBA draft, observers get lured into a false sense of security.

One scouting report called a prospect a future All-Star, so he must be destined for great things. Based on the laws of average, however, he's more likely to fizzle.

That guy taken in the mid-first round has the look of a solid role player. Those expectations may feel tame, but they're actually a favorable result. More often than not, prospects taken outside the lottery never latch on to an NBA rotation.

Every prospect enters the Association with an endless array of possibilities, good and bad, but the following players especially possess a wide range of outcomes. Teams must weigh the risks and rewards before gambling on such a volatile talent, but upside typically wins out.

Let's highlight a few boom-or-bust choices selected in the first round of this pre-lottery mock draft.

Pick	Team	Player
1	Boston Celtics (via Nets)	Markelle Fultz, G, Washington
2	Phoenix Suns	Lonzo Ball, G, UCLA
3	Los Angeles Lakers	Josh Jackson, F, Kansas
4	Philadelphia 76ers	Malik Monk, G, Kentucky
5	Orlando Magic	De'Aaron Fox, G, Kentucky
6	Minnesota Timberwolves	Jayson Tatum, F, Duke
7	New York Knicks	Frank Ntilikina, G, France
8	Sacramento Kings	Dennis Smith Jr., G, NC State
9	Dallas Mavericks	Lauri Markkanen, F, Arizona
10	Sacramento Kings (via Pelicans)	Jonathan Isaac, F, Florida State
11	Charlotte Hornets	Zach Collins, C, Gonzaga
12	Detroit Pistons	Justin Jackson, F, North Carolina
13	Denver Nuggets	OG Anunoby, F, Indiana
14	Miami Heat	Harry Giles, F, Duke
15	Chicago Bulls	Jarrett Allen, C, Texas
16	Portland Trail Blazers	Justin Patton, C, Creighton
17	Indiana Pacers	Donovan Mitchell, G, Louisville
18	Milwaukee Bucks	Terrance Ferguson, G, Australia
19	Atlanta Hawks	John Collins, F, Wake Forest
20	Portland Trail Blazers (via Grizzlies)	TJ Leaf, F, UCLA
21	Oklahoma City Thunder	Luke Kennard, G, Duke
22	Brooklyn Nets (via Wizards)	Isaiah Hartenstein, F, Germany
23	Toronto Raptors (via Clippers)	Semi Ojeleye, F, SMU
24	Utah Jazz	Edrice "Bam" Adebayo, C, Kentucky
25	Orlando Magic (via Raptors)	Ike Anigbogu, C, UCLA
26	Portland Trail Blazers (via Cavaliers)	Rodions Kurucs, F, Latvia
27	Brooklyn Nets (via Celtics)	Tyler Lydon, F, Syracuse
28	Los Angeles Lakers (via Rockets)	Jordan Bell, F, Oregon
29	San Antonio Spurs	Anzejs Pasecniks, C, Latvia
30	Utah Jazz (via Warriors)	Jawun Evans, G, Oklahoma State

Harry Giles, F, Duke

Lance King/Getty Images

Harry Giles once carried No. 1-pick aspirations. Two ACL tears later and he's far from a lottery lock.

Given the 19-year-old's troubling health record, landing within the top 15 is optimistic. Yet, the forward's NBA Draft Combine measures will keep teams intrigued.

Standing at 6'10" with a 7'3" wingspan, he ties Michigan's Moritz Wagner for the longest hand width. He also recorded the sixth-best lane agility time (11.08 seconds) of all participating forwards.

According to ESPN Insider Chad Ford, Giles "could move in the Nos. 5-10 range" if teams are satisfied with his medical records. 

"He's the best prospect in the entire draft if he can fully recover and stay healthy," one NBA executive told Ford. "He's just a freaky talent."

His stock dwindled due to a limited freshman season, so any interested NBA franchise must exude patience with a player who logged just 300 minutes for Duke. Giles may never regain his uber-prospect status, but his ceiling remains higher than contemporaries potentially available outside the top 10. 

OG Anunoby, F, Indiana

G Fiume/Getty Images

Another injury risk, OG Anunoby's Indiana tenure ended early due to a knee injury. Health concerns paired with shooting woes may hinder his stock leading up to June 22.

During his sophomore season, the forward's three-point percentage cratered from 44.8 to 31.1. Even if he succeeds at the highest level, a 56.3 free-throw percentage will make him an instant "Hack-a-" candidate.

Yet, some teams view shooting mechanics as a teachable fix, with Kawhi Leonard serving as the most famous example of significant improvement under the finest coaching. Anunoby also offers incredible athleticism and a 7'2" wingspan, which is still impressive despite falling short of an unofficial 7'6" tally circulating before the combine.

His blend of superb speed and length presents elite defensive upside. If he develops into a top-tier perimeter stopper, he can carve a niche without significant offensive improvements.

A refined shooting touch, however, could unlock Anunoby's All-Star potential and optimize his driving abilities. There's too much top talent in this draft for anyone to gamble inside the top 10, but he's worth the risk as an end-of-lottery or late-first round choice. 

Rodions Kurucs, F, Latvia

Rodions Kurucs' stock is rising. In its latest mock draft, DraftExpress had the Oklahoma City Thunder taking the Latvian forward at pick No. 21. Bleacher Report's Jonathan Wasserman ranked him No. 25 on his updated big board before the combine.

As Wasserman pointed out, teams must settle for imagining his peak with limited in-game film.

"He's only played 25 games in 2016-17, 24 of which have come in Spain's second division," Wasserman wrote. "But for a projected wing, Kurucs' athleticism and tools stand out under the NBA lens. And he shows regular flashes that highlight his scoring, shooting and defensive potential."

From the small sample size, they see a lengthy, gifted scorer with two-way appeal. Such mystique often appeals to NBA organizations more than a college athlete with a limited ceiling, so someone will draft and stash Kurucs later in the opening round.

Yet, if the hype keeps expanding, the cost could inflate without accounting for the risk and holdover period. He makes sense for a team, preferably a contender, in the 20s.  

Note: Combine data obtained from NBA.com.