NBA Draft Lottery 2017: Odds to Win No. 1 Pick and Teams That Need It the Most
As the Boston Celtics approach May 16's NBA draft lottery with the best odds of drawing the first pick, they may also be simultaneously preparing to host the Cleveland Cavaliers in the Eastern Conference Finals. They can easily survive slipping to third or fourth, but the league's bottom-feeders need a gift from the basketball gods.
The stakes are particularly high for the Los Angeles Lakers, who will surrender their selection to the Philadelphia 76ers if they fall below the No. 3 slot. This contingency—and the option to swap picks with the Sacramento Kings—gives the 76ers an opportunity to end the evening with two top-five choices.
In order to save their pick, the New Orleans Pelicans also need an improbable surge into the top three. Yet they won't rue sacrificing the No. 10 selection to acquire DeMarcus Cousins from Sacramento.
There are other teams, of course, that really need a break. Even if the pressure isn't as high in a deep draft without one can't-miss superstar, the draft lottery can shift a franchise's fate for better or worse. Let's look at three squads that can especially use a positive outcome along with each lottery team's probability of winning the No. 1 pick, courtesy of Tankathon.
| Boston Celtics (via Nets) | 25.0 |
| Phoenix Suns | 19.9 |
| Los Angeles Lakers | 15.6 |
| Philadelphia 76ers | 11.9 |
| Orlando Magic | 8.8 |
| Minnesota Timberwolves | 5.3 |
| New York Knicks | 5.3 |
| Sacramento Kings* | 2.8 |
| Dallas Mavericks | 1.7 |
| New Orleans Pelicans | 1.1 |
| Charlotte Hornets | 0.8 |
| Detroit Pistons | 0.7 |
| Denver Nuggets | 0.6 |
| Miami Heat | 0.5 |
Los Angeles Lakers
The Los Angeles Lakers have never experienced losing quite like this. The past four seasons mark the charmed organization's four lowest win tallies since leaving Minneapolis in 1960.
Taking over as team president, Magic Johnson needs an exciting young name to generate buzz. Lonzo Ball, an exciting point guard with a rapidly growing brand, seems like a perfect fit for both parties. ESPN.com's Chad Ford reported Los Angeles' interest in the UCLA standout.
"The Lakers appear to be enamored with Ball, a local product who could add star power to a team desperately in search of it," Ford wrote. "But they'll likely have to land in the top two to get him."
Getting pick No. 3 would probably lead them to Kansas' Josh Jackson, a strong two-way talent but not the flashy choice for a franchise run on glitz and glamour. Falling any lower, however, would prove far worse.
On CBS Sports' We Need To Talk (via Arizona Republic's Chris Cole), Lakers head coach Luke Walton made a joke that will spark conspiracy theories if proved accurate.
"Magic's already assured me that we're going to get our top-three pick this year, so I'm excited about that," Walton said with a straight face before smiling.
Despite Johnson's blind optimism, there's a 53.1 percent chance the Lakers will draw the No. 4, 5 or 6 position. They will then have to turn their sights to free agency.
Philadelphia 76ers
Whereas the Lakers have the most to lose, the 76ers have the most to gain.
Philadelphia has an 82.7 percent chance of landing its fourth consecutive top-five pick. That's not accounting for the 49.1 percent possibility of inheriting the Lakers' spot at No. 4 or 5, or the 10 percent chance of the Kings leaping into the top three and potentially precipitating a swap.
Perhaps they're not in greatest need of a second straight lottery win. Jackson, Jayson Tatum, Malik Monk or Jonathan Isaac would look great alongside Joel Embiid, Dario Saric and a debuting Ben Simmons. But imagine if they could add one of those guys and Washington point guard Markelle Fultz.
In that scenario, health is the only thing stopping them from immediately morphing into a dangerous playoff contender.
This draft lottery could validate former general manager Sam Hinkie's grand vision of unapologetically tanking in hopes of slowly forming a future dynasty. Although not on his watch, his blueprint could come to fruition if they get lucky.
Orlando Magic
It would have been easy to include the New York Knicks, but isn't everyone sick of talking about them already?
The Orlando Magic, meanwhile, have vanished from the public spotlight since losing Dwight Howard. Despite stockpiling young talent with four straight lottery selections, they remain directionless without a definitive building block.
After swapping Victor Oladipo and 2016 No. 11 pick Domantas Sabonis for Serge Ibaka, they dealt him to the Toronto Raptors for a lesser return during the season. Aaron Gordon, Nikola Vucevic, Elfrid Payton and Evan Fournier are all nice pieces, but they added up to a 29-53 team that backpedaled from 2015-16's 35-win season.
Stuck in mediocrity with a slow rebuild yielding no results, the Magic fired general manager Rob Hennigan. Interim general manager Matt Lloyd will need more than the fourth or fifth pick to resuscitate a floundering franchise, but landing Fultz or Ball would lend them new life.
Orlando hasn't won the lottery since securing Howard in 2004, and the organization has just an 8.8 percent probability of hitting the jackpot again. In this deep draft, they would also gladly take a climb up to No. 2 or 3, but they need a future All-Star to save them from permanent lottery participation.
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