Would Golden State Warriors Rather Play Utah Jazz or LA Clippers in 2nd Round?
A broom would have sufficed for the Golden State Warriors' first-round sweep of the Portland Trail Blazers. The reigning Western Conference champions broke out a steamroller instead and pulverized their opponents.
Only one of the four contests was decided by less than 12 points; two were settled by at least 25.
The second round will presumably present a stiffer challenge—although the Dubs won't run into another team that won 73 games last season, then added Kevin Durant. They'll either face the fourth-seeded Los Angeles Clippers or fifth-seeded Utah Jazz, who are taking a 3-2 lead back home for Friday's Game 6.
The Clippers are playoff veterans, big-dancing for the sixth straight year. But they're also playing without five-time All-Star Blake Griffin, lost for the postseason to a plantar plate injury to his right big toe.
The growing-up-before-our-eyes Jazz won more games (51) than the franchise had since Deron Williams, Carlos Boozer and Jerry Sloan were running the show in 2009-10. The nucleus is also traveling through uncharted waters, with three of the top-six minute-getters making their postseason debuts.
Both potential Warriors foes have obvious strengths and flaws, but which would be the desired second-round draw? Examining the good and bad in each provides a clear choice.
Why Utah?
1 of 5
Answer: Because the Jazz possess the firepower of a neighborhood Fourth of July party and the Warriors have weapons of mass destruction.
Utah's offense is ordinary—ninth in field-goal and three-point percentage, 12th in efficiency during the regular season. Golden State's attack is as potent as any the Association has seen, and its defense quietly held the second spot in efficiency.
"Golden State is so connected and so good," Jazz coach Quin Snyder told reporters in December. "But they're good in a way that is unique because of the way they play together."
At their best, the Warriors have a gear that the Jazz—the regular season's slowest team—can't match. For instance, Golden State has scored under 100 points six times this season; Utah has been held to double digits six times in the past month. That's not a direct apples-to-apples comparison given the pace of play, but it will be once the Jazz are required to match the Warriors' stride.
Golden State's in-game runs play out at Usain Bolt speed. The Dubs had a 12-0 lead three minutes into their series-clinching win over the Portland Trail Blazers and an absurd 30-7 edge before the seven-minute mark.
How do the Jazz counter when hit with a potential knockout blow like that? Their top scorer and lone All-Star, Gordon Hayward, would be fourth on the Warriors, with 21.9 points per game, and he has shot just 31.6 percent against them over the last two seasons. Utah's next-best player is defensive specialist Rudy Gobert. It often hands the clutch keys to Joe Johnson, a 35-year-old who last made an All-Star roster four years ago.
Granted, the Jazz didn't punch their first playoff ticket in five seasons at the offensive end. But knocking off the Warriors—let alone doing it four times in seven games—demands a heightened level of offensive competence Utah rarely shows.
Why Not Utah?
2 of 5
Answer: Because if a defense capable of harassing the Warriors exists, it has the length, energy and discipline of Salt Lake City's stoppers.
Every level of Utah's defense is treacherous, from point guard George Hill and his 6'9" wingspan to Gobert, the proverbial brick wall who reaches 9'7" without jumping. The overall unit grades out as ferocious—third in efficiency and second in opponent field-goal percentage.
Powered by Gobert—the league's most effective high-volume rim protector—Utah held opponents to just 55.8 percent shooting inside of five feet, the second-lowest rate. It also surrendered the third-fewest three-point makes (and second-fewest attempts) and tied for the fifth-fewest free-throw attempts, effectively throwing a wrench into the analytical guide to new-age offense.
The goal of defense is to make offenses uncomfortable, and Utah can transform that end into a proctologist's waiting room.
"No matter how much preparation you do or how much they do, they're still going to be a great defensive team," Clippers coach Doc Rivers told reporters. "That's not going to go away."
The Jazz play a distinctly non-Warriors style, grinding games to a halt and squeezing every second out of the shot clock. The Dubs already know this—their 103.0 points per game against the Jazz was their third-lowest among all opponents. They were also routinely clobbered by Gobert, who averaged 16.0 points on 76.9 percent shooting and 17.3 rebounds in their three matchups.
Utah would require the type of consistent effort and focus that Golden State has rarely needed this season. By simply playing their own game, the Jazz could force the Warriors well outside their comfort zone.
Why L.A.?
3 of 5
Answer: Because the full-strength Clippers have been punching bags for the Warriors—and these aren't even the full-strength Clippers.
The Warriors swept the four-game regular-season series between these teams in consecutive campaigns, doing so this time around by an average of 21.5 points. It's been more than 14 months since these ostensible rivals played a game that was decided by single digits and over 28 months since the Clippers claimed a victory—a 115-112 win on Christmas 2014, when David Lee gave the Dubs double figures and Ognjen Kuzmic and Ekpe Udoh both saw action.
"It's a team we respect, so we want to beat them," Warriors coach Steve Kerr explained to reporters in February. "They bring the best out of us."
Griffin played in seven of his squad's 10 straight losses to Golden State. He would not be around for any second-round meeting, as he's already lost for the playoffs.
Even with Griffin, the Clippers had become a broke man's Warriors. The offense can be electric but doesn't produce the same voltage. The defense has gotten uncomfortably close to being a liability. The stars don't shine as bright, and the bench doesn't run as deep.
L.A. hasn't won this season with defense and wouldn't suddenly start doing so now. It would have to hope an offense that averaged fewer points, shot worse from the field (including from three-point land), dished out fewer assists and posted a lower efficiency rating during the regular season could somehow overwhelm its outperforming counterpart—without the help of its top scorer and second-best distributor.
Why Not L.A.?
4 of 5
Answer: Because point god Chris Paul is the best player the Warriors can face in the second round.
Floor general Chris Paul's run of nine consecutive All-Star Games might have been snapped by injury this season, but his performance was elite by any measure. He paced the entire league with an 8.10 real plus-minus, per ESPN.com, and held top-10 rankings in box plus/minus (8.6, third) and player efficiency rating (26.2, tied for eighth).
Somehow, the 31-year-old has uncovered an extra gear for the second season. His counting categories are up across the board (27.0 points and 10.4 assists from 18.1 and 9.2 respectively), and his efficiency numbers have soared along with them (34.3 PER from 26.2, 53.1 field-goal percentage from 47.6).
In other words, L.A.'s series deficit isn't on him. The Clippers have managed a plus-15 with him on the court and a minus-15 without.
"Chris needs help," Rivers told reporters. "Other guys need to step up and score for us."
That need won't easily go away, but neither will Paul's production. If he's carving up the league's third-best defense, is the No. 2 unit something he couldn't handle? Logic says no, and history agrees—Paul has hit 50 percent or better from the field in four of their past five matchups.
The Clippers had a top-five attack this season—albeit mostly with Griffin—that could be necessitated to stop the Warriors. And there are enough bad shot-makers on L.A.'s roster to frustrate a Golden State team that hasn't needed to find much mental fortitude to this point. Add postseason experience to the mix, and maybe the Clippers quietly have some interesting ingredients for the upset.
Verdict
5 of 5
This debate isn't as close as the Clippers-Jazz series has been.
L.A. is the preferred pick by a considerable margin. It's hard to envision a scenario in which the Clippers seriously challenge the Warriors.
A best-case series probably entails Paul playing Stephen Curry to a draw (or edging out the two-time MVP) and DeAndre Jordan dominating the center spot. But J.J. Redick isn't the same threat as Klay Thompson, while embarrassment seems inevitable for Luc Mbah a Moute and Marreese Speights against Durant and Draymond Green. And a rested reserve crew for the Warriors should roll a beat-up Clippers bench.
No matter the draw, the Dubs will be heavy favorites.
Yes, the Jazz have pesky defenders, rapidly maturing talent and an underrated skipper. But they also have one All-Star against the Warriors' four and no defense-dismantling weapon like Curry or Durant.
Utah, though, might be able to keep things interesting. Pace control will be critical in hanging around, but winning that battle would mean maximizing the strength of its standout defense. And if the Jazz show any signs of life in Oakland, California, they'll have a raucous home crowd backing them upon return.
Utah's brand of basketball is worlds removed from Golden State's "light years ahead" approach; the Clippers play like the knockoff Warriors. Between the stylistic challenge and relentless commitment to defense, the Jazz would be the tougher draw by far.
Statistics accurate through Thursday and courtesy of NBA.com and Basketball Reference.
Zach Buckley covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter: @ZachBuckleyNBA.
