Livan Hernandez: Time to Trim the Fat from the Twins Rotation?

When I first heard that the Twins had signed Livan Hernandez, I was less than ecstatic about it. The more I thought about it, the better an idea it seemed. Until now.

ESPN and others billed the deal as “signing Livan to replace Johan Santana,” which was about as wrong as they could have been without actually getting the facts of the story wrong.

Livan wasn’t signed to be the ace of the staff, so he wasn’t signed to replace Johan. If anything, he was signed to replace mediocre innings-eater Carlos Silva.

Viewed in that light, the signing made sense, since the rest of the Twins rotation was fairly unproven. Hernandez was brought in to make sure that, should the kids fail around him, at least one of the Twins' five starters wouldn’t be a drain on the bullpen. Given the uncertainty of the rotation, and the very small initial cost of signing a pitcher who was nearly a lock to throw at least 200 innings, it made a lot of sense.

That was mid-February. Snap forward to today, and the landscape has changed.

Kevin Slowey has found himself once again, and looks very much like the highly-touted prospect he was supposed to be. He has not given up more than three runs in a start yet this season, and has given up just one run in his last two outings.

He’ll face a decent lineup tonight—Baltimore has better hitters than KC does, but Slowey has already shut down one of the most potent lineups in the AL, when he shut out Detroit over six innings on May 23.

Nick Blackburn has the lowest ERA of the Twins’ starters at 3.32, and has been exceptionally efficient. Blackburn has thrown less than six innings just three times all season—in his second and third starts of the year, when he was being converted back from being a reliever at the end of last year, and his most recent start, when he took a line drive to the face.

Glen Perkins stumbled in his last start, giving up five runs in just four innings against the Yankees, but that was the first time in five starts he had given up more than three in fewer than six innings. His ERA was down to 2.77, and even after his poor outing in his small sample size, he still has an ERA below four.

Perkins has pitched so well that he will stay in the rotation even after the man he was replacing, Scott Baker, comes back from the DL.

These three young arms have looked great in most of their outings. Each has had a stumble or two, but such is the reality of rookie pitchers. Innings have not been a concern, since the bullpen is only overworked because the Twins have played so many extra-inning games.

Livan looks expendable now that Scott Baker is coming off the DL this week and Francisco Liriano is raising his K/9 and dropping his BB/9 in AAA. Pundits are saying that now is a perfect time to sell high on Livan before he implodes, a la Ramon Ortiz.

Here are the three most popular reasons for trading Livan soon:

1. In all likelihood, he will regress to his career means, and thereby lose most of the value he gained this season so far.

2. The Twins' concern about the readiness of Slowey, Perkins, and Blackburn has been rendered moot; they are all substantially better than Hernandez and are throwing enough innings to keep the bullpen in good shape.

3. If packaged properly, Livan could bring in a decent prospect who could help the Twins solidify the middle IF or the back end of the bullpen.

Combined and translated, these three reasons boil down to this: He isn’t that good, we don’t need him, and we should get something for him before he becomes a bigger drag on the team.

That’s all fine and good, and at least somewhat correct.

Livan really isn’t that good—his WHIP last night was 2.333, and his ERA is approaching five.

The Twins do have other options; Liriano will have to displace someone when he comes back from AAA.

The Twins got Matt Macri for Ramon Ortiz, post blow up, so if they can deal Livan before reality hits, they might be able to dupe a needy team into giving up a decent prospect for the innings eater.

Realistically, it's way too early to deal Livan, as much as it pains me to say it. Here’s why:

1. Pitchers get hurt. Scott Baker and Kevin Slowey have already made stints on the DL, and Nick Blackburn missed serious injury and an extended DL stay by all of half an inch on Sunday.

Boof Bonser may not be hurt, but he has lost his effectiveness for other reasons. Point being, the Twins simply cannot count on the health of the rotation for the rest of the year.

2. To quote every mutual fund commercial ever: past success is no promise of future production. Kevin Slowey has looked very good lately, but struggled early. He needs to drop his HR/9 to remain effective.

When Perkins starts elevating his pitches, he gets hit HARD, as the Yankees showed. These young guns look great right now, but the sample size is small.

3. Help isn’t necessarily on the way. Liriano will come back, and will probably be very solid, but he may struggle a bit facing ML hitters again. Beyond him, there isn’t the usual spate of pitchers in the minors.

Kevin Mulvey looks OK, but not great. Phillip Humber has looked somewhere between awful and appalling since spring training ended. Yohan Pino has looked good, but a call-up from AA to the majors is a recipe for disaster, and the Twins would never do it.

Unless Liriano comes to the majors and shows that he will be able to be effective for the rest of the year, or Boof shows that he will pitch well out of the pen and be able to make a spot start as needed, the Twins cannot afford to deal Livan right now.

The good news is that Boof will get his chance to show he can work out of the pen starting this week, and Liriano has shown very good numbers in AAA, so he should be called up before the end of the month if he can stay consistent.

So, while the Twins cannot afford to deal Livan Hernandez now, they should be lining up potential partners for after the All-Star break.