San Francisco Giants: Complete 2017 Season Preview, Predictions
The magic spell that the San Francisco Giants had in even years finally stopped working in 2016. Now they have to find the right incantation for odd-year magic.
That should be doable.
Even if the Giants aren't the odds-on favorite to win the NL West in 2017, nobody would be surprised to see them finish as division champs. Likewise, nobody would be surprised if they made it four World Series titles in seven years.
Of course, the Giants have quite a bit of baseball to play between now and then. Read on for a full preview of what they're bringing to play in 2017 and projections for where they'll end up.
Lineup Preview
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Projected Starting Lineup (w/ 2016 Stats)
| Spot | Player | POS | Bats | AVG | OBP | SLUG | WAR |
| 1 | Denard Span | CF | L | .266 | .331 | .381 | 1.0 |
| 2 | Brandon Belt | 1B | L | .275 | .394 | .474 | 4.3 |
| 3 | Buster Posey | C | R | .288 | .362 | .434 | 4.7 |
| 4 | Hunter Pence | RF | R | .289 | .357 | .451 | 1.9 |
| 5 | Brandon Crawford | SS | L | .275 | .342 | .430 | 4.5 |
| 6 | Eduardo Nunez | 3B | R | .288 | .325 | .432 | 2.3 |
| 7 | Joe Panik | 2B | L | .239 | .315 | .379 | 1.1 |
| 8 | Jarrett Parker | LF | L | .236 | .358 | .394 | 0.2 |
This is mostly the same lineup that finished ninth in the National League in runs last year. But don't worry, it can be better.
Coming off what was somewhat of a disappointing 2016, Buster Posey is a bounce-back candidate for 2017. Meanwhile, the two Brandons (Belt and Crawford) have settled in as above-average hitters.
What would really help is if Hunter Pence stayed healthy following two injury-marred seasons. He's continued to hit when he's been able to stay on the field over the last two seasons, putting up an .808 OPS.
Thus, it could fall to the other guys to pick up the slack.
Denard Span can help by getting on base. Eduardo Nunez can help by carrying over his 2016 breakout. Joe Panik can help by hitting like he did in 2015. Jarrett Parker can help by hitting like he has in spring training—an .876 OPS would do quite nicely.
Whatever the case, run prevention won't be a problem. The Giants are returning many members from a defense that ranked third in efficiency last season. And when he's not hitting, Posey moonlights as baseball's best strike framer.
Projected Bench (w/ 2016 Stats)
| Player | POS | Bats | AVG | OBP | SLUG | WAR |
| Nick Hundley | C | R | .260 | .320 | .439 | 0.1 |
| Conor Gillaspie | INF | L | .262 | .307 | .440 | 1.1 |
| Aaron Hill | INF | R | .262 | .336 | .378 | 1.2 |
| Gorkys Hernandez | OF | R | .259 | .298 | .463 | 0.3 |
| Chris Marrero | INF/OF | R | - | - | - | - |
Nick Hundley seemed to be the only lock for the Giants bench going into spring training. As of now, Conor Gillaspie, Aaron Hill and Gorkys Hernandez seem to have spots locked up as well.
With a 1.016 OPS and seven home runs, Chris Marrero has made a compelling case for the last spot.
"This kid has done all he can do to be on the club," said manager Bruce Bochy, according to Andrew Baggarly of the Mercury News. "I like his swing and his attitude and the work he’s put in. It’s a great signing for us.”
The Giants lineup figures to be mostly set, but Hill and Marrero would likely be slotted in for Panik and Parker against left-handed pitching.
Starting Rotation Preview
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Projected Rotation (w/ 2016 Stats)
| Spot | Player | Throws | IP | ERA | WAR |
| 1 | Madison Bumgarner | L | 226.2 | 2.74 | 5.0 |
| 2 | Johnny Cueto | R | 219.2 | 2.79 | 5.6 |
| 3 | Jeff Samardzija | R | 203.1 | 3.81 | 2.7 |
| 4 | Matt Moore | L | 198.1 | 4.08 | 2.1 |
| 5 | Matt Cain | R | 89.1 | 5.64 | -0.7 |
The Giants were carried by their starting pitching last year. It ranked fifth in MLB in ERA and third in innings. More of that should be in the cards for 2017.
With four straight seasons of 200-plus innings and an ERA under 3.00, Madison Bumgarner is as consistent as they come. Nobody seemed too sure what to expect from Johnny Cueto last season, but now his performance looks like a reminder that he was an ace before he arrived in San Francisco.
Jeff Samardzija and Matt Moore, meanwhile, may not be much better than league-average starters. But after combining for 401.2 innings in 2016, they should at least help keep the club's bullpen fresh.
The last spot is hardly set in stone, but Matt Cain is the default favorite. How long he can last there is anyone's guess. He's struggled mightily with a 5.70 ERA over the last two seasons, and has spent much of spring training getting knocked around.
If Cain can't hack it, the Giants can call on left-hander Ty Blach or right-hander Albert Suarez. After putting himself back on the prospect map in 2016, right-hander Tyler Beede is a potential X-factor as well.
Bullpen Preview
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Projected Bullpen (w/ 2016 Stats)
| Role | Player | Throws | IP | ERA | WAR |
| CL | Mark Melancon | R | 71.1 | 1.64 | 2.8 |
| SU | Hunter Strickland | R | 61.0 | 3.10 | 1.1 |
| SU | Derek Law | R | 55.0 | 2.13 | 1.5 |
| MR | Cory Gearrin | R | 48.1 | 4.28 | -0.1 |
| MR | Josh Osich | L | 36.1 | 4.71 | -0.1 |
| MR | Steven Okert | L | 14.0 | 3.21 | 0.2 |
| MR | George Kontos | R | 53.1 | 2.53 | 0.9 |
Here it is. The source of the Giants' demise in 2016.
Their bullpen damn near kept them out of the postseason by blowing 30 saves in the regular season. Then it helped usher them out of October, letting go of a comfortable lead in Game 4 of the National League Division Series against the Chicago Cubs. Heartbreaking, yet appropriate.
In to help fix things is Mark Melancon, who owns a 1.80 ERA since 2013. He won't light up a radar gun like other closers, but his combination of movement and location emasculates hitters all the same.
Setting up for him will be two quality up-and-comers in Hunter Strickland and Derek Law. The latter, in particular, looks like a keeper after using a Melancon-like approach of movement and location to dominate as a rookie in 2016.
The guy the Giants will miss is Will Smith, who was lost to Tommy John surgery. But Josh Osich and Steven Okert can get lefties out in his stead. Cory Gearrin and George Kontos are two reliable right-handers.
It's not so much an improved bullpen as a bullpen with one specific improvement that should make a real difference.
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Keys for a Successful Season
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Rotation Does the Heavy Lifting
At a time when teams are trusting more innings to their bullpens, the Giants should remain old school.
They were the only team with three 200-inning pitchers last year. With Moore in for a full season, they have a chance to make it four such pitchers in 2017. Included within should be many quality innings, and the lot will help keep the club's bullpen fresh for crunch time.
Buster Posey Does His Thing
Even if he didn't have his best season, there's one measure that claims Posey was still one of the five best players in baseball last year, per Basketball Prospectus.
Still, it would be nice if his bat rebounded. That's doable because he didn't actually struggle that much in 2016. He had nearly as many walks (64) as strikeouts (68) and continued to make good contact in all directions. More of the same should produce better results.
A Healthy Hunter Pence
Posey can be the Giants' best right-handed hitter, but he's not the best guy to ask for power from the right side of the plate. That needs to be Pence's job.
It all depends on him staying healthy. His power will otherwise take care of itself. Even despite his injuries, nobody on the Giants has hit fly balls and line drives harder than Pence over the last two years, according to Baseball Savant.
Mark Melancon Shuts It Down
Seriously, though. The Giants bullpen was terrible last year. That point can't be stressed enough.
Nor can it be stressed enough that Melancon is the right man for the job of fixing things. For perspective, he has a lower ERA over the last four years than even Clayton Kershaw. He trails only Aroldis Chapman, Andrew Miller and Craig Kimbrel in OPS allowed. If he's himself, plenty of ninth innings' will be safe.
Watch for Blach and Beede
Unless Cain experiences a Freaky Friday scenario with his 2012 self, the Giants are going to need a pick-me-up in the last spot in their rotation.
Either Blach or Beede could be equal to the task. The former gets the most out of mediocre stuff by simply knowing how to pitch. The latter has more ability and a developing idea of how to use it.
Potential Pitfalls
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Denard Span a Weak Link?
The Giants are trusting Denard Span with two important jobs that he's losing his ability to handle: leading off and playing center field. His on-base percentage took a sharp turn for the worse last season, and his defense continued a downward trend.
Can he be better in 2017? Or is this now the 33-year-old's reality? The possibility that the latter is true is very real.
Hunter Pence's Health
Sorry to sound like a broken record, but Pence's durability is a question that simply cannot be downplayed. The offensive support he can provide isn't so much a necessity as a must-have.
And, frankly, him staying healthy isn't the best bet. Him being about to turn 34 years old is discouraging enough. Then there's the amount of mileage on his body, his recent injury history and his inability to avoid even minor injury trouble this spring. It's not a pretty picture.
What Are Jeff Samardzija and Matt Moore?
Again, it's a good thing that the Giants stand to get innings out of Samardzija and Moore. Many other teams wish they could have two guys like them in the middle of their rotations.
But what are they, exactly? At times, both can look like top-of-the-rotation starters. At others, they can look like back-end guys. The hope must be that they'll pitch like their best selves for much of 2017. Because if they pitch like their worst selves, their innings will only be worth so much.
Bullpen's Soft Underbelly
Melancon is going to have the ninth inning on lockdown in 2017. And for the most part, the bridge to him is going to be fine.
But be warned that there are going to be times when it feels like 2016 all over again. Since the Giants aren't going to score a ton of runs, tight games will have a habit of finding them. Since the bridge to Melancon isn't cut out to dominate, it's easy to imagine some of those getting away.
The Giants just have to hope it's not too many.
Projections and Outlook
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Regular Season
Although the Giants only won 87 games last season, they really deserved to win 90 based on how many runs they scored and allowed. That would have put them within a game of the Los Angeles Dodgers.
Nonetheless, the projections aren't big believers:
Both project the Dodgers to win the division by plenty. They could be missing how the Giants can be better on the field than they are on paper, but they don't really have the wrong idea about the Dodgers. With plenty of stars and lots of depth, they're made for an excellent regular season.
Still, there's no way the Giants finish any lower than second in an NL West that's short on challengers. And they should come closer to 90 wins than to 85 wins, which would likely net them a wild-card spot.
Postseason
The good news: Your humble narrator has the Giants going to the National League Championship Series.
The bad news: But only that far.
With Bumgarner and Cueto at the head of their rotation, Melancon at the back of their bullpen and a lineup full of grizzled veterans, the Giants arguably profile better as a postseason team than they do as a regular season team. So, let there be no mistake that they are a serious World Series contender.
However, there are serious World Series contenders in Los Angeles, Washington, Chicago and New York as well. Any of the four could take the Giants down.
But, we'll see. The Giants probably weren't supposed to win it all in 2010, 2012 or 2014 either. But they did anyway.
Regular-season stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com (including WAR) and FanGraphs unless otherwise noted/linked. Spring training stats courtesy of MLB.com.
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