2017 MLB Rookies Who Are Being Hyped Up Too Early
The hype train can leave the station in a hurry when it comes to top prospects.
Nothing gets a fanbase excited like the "next big thing," and for a player in his early 20s, the pressure that comes with living up to those lofty expectations can often be overwhelming.
For some rookies, the transition to life in the majors is a smooth one, as we saw with guys like Kris Bryant, Corey Seager, Carlos Correa and Francisco Lindor in recent years.
For others, it takes some time to settle in at the next level.
It's easy to forget that Mike Trout hit .220/.281/.390 over 135 plate appearances in his first taste of MLB action.
With that in mind, what follows is a look at five MLB rookies who are being hyped too early.
This is not meant to suggest that these players are not capable of developing into stars and living up to that hype in the years to come.
It's simply meant as a cautionary tale to perhaps temper expectations when it comes to the arrival of these particular prospects.
CF Bradley Zimmer, Cleveland Indians
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The health of Michael Brantley and the potential regression of Tyler Naquin could present Bradley Zimmer with an opportunity to step into a significant role for a Cleveland Indians team that figures to be right in the thick of things in the American League.
Brantley is being brought along slowly this spring after playing just 11 games last season.
He missed the start of 2016 while recovering from offseason shoulder surgery, then reaggravated the injury and eventually wound up going under the knife for a second operation on his right shoulder in August.
As for Naquin, he hit .296/.372/.514 with 18 doubles, 14 home runs, 43 RBI and 52 runs scored last season to finish third in AL Rookie of the Year voting.
However, his .411 BABIP was the highest mark among all players with at least 200 plate appearances.
So the question isn't whether he'll regress, but how far.
Should Brantley suffer a setback or Naquin go through a prolonged slump, Zimmer could get his chance.
The question then becomes, is he ready?
The 24-year-old has the chance for five average-or-better tools and has a smooth left-handed stroke that should allow him to hit for both average and power.
However, he struck out 171 times last season, and his OPS plummeted from .842 to .654 following a July promotion to Triple-A.
A .257/.421/.514 line with 11 extra-base hits in the Arizona Fall League provided some positive momentum heading into the offseason, but it may be wise to plan for some major ups and downs once he does finally arrive in Cleveland.
RHP Robert Stephenson, Cincinnati Reds
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With Dan Straily traded to the Miami Marlins and Homer Bailey once again headed for the disabled list to start the season, the door is wide-open for Robert Stephenson to seize a spot in the Cincinnati Reds starting rotation.
The 24-year-old has been a source of frustration for both talent evaluators and his own coaching staff in recent years, as he's failed to make the necessary adjustments during his climb up the minor league ranks.
"This is what we've been going through with this kid for the last three or four years," Triple-A manager Delino DeShields told reporters last summer. "Until he makes an adjustment, it's going to continue. It's not going to get better. It's on him. He's been told what he needs to do and what he needs to work on by numerous coaches and staff members. It's up to him to make those adjustments. If I was him, I'd be embarrassed."
Stephenson was 8-9 with a 4.41 ERA, 1.36 WHIP and 120 strikeouts in 136.2 innings of work in Triple-A last season, once again struggling with his command and allowing 4.7 walks per nine innings.
That stalled development led Baseball America to drop him out of their top 100 prospects for the upcoming season after he appeared on the list each of the past four seasons, peaking at No. 19 in 2014.
However, he's still ranked in the No. 87 spot by MLB.com and is still widely regarded as one of the better pitching prospects in a deep Cincinnati system.
So what does the future hold for the hard-throwing right-hander?
One NL Central scout offered up the following to Christopher Crawford of ESPN.com:
"At this point, I'd be surprised if he didn't end up in the bullpen. And he should be pretty good there. There are three strikeout pitches in his arsenal. That being said, I can't blame Cincinnati for giving him a chance to start, for that same reason. There's just so many moving parts in the delivery that I doubt he'll have the command, but if he can make adjustments, it's not impossible. This has to be his last chance, but maybe he'll make the most of it.
"
The hype surrounding Stephenson has undoubtedly started to wane, so this does have the feel of a make-or-break year.
RF Aaron Judge, New York Yankees
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Aaron Judge is trying his best to prove his inclusion on this list is a mistake.
The hulking slugger is off to a nice 3-for-9 start this spring with one triple and one home run, and perhaps most importantly he's only struck out once.
That's after whiffing a dizzying 42 times in 95 plate appearances in his first MLB action last season, which is a good indication that there's further work to be done on his approach to higher-level pitching.
Can he show enough over the next few weeks to prove he's ready for the everyday right field job?
The 24-year-old hit .270/.366/.489 with 18 doubles, 19 home runs and 65 RBI in 410 plate appearances with Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre last year before being promoted.
Those 19 home runs may just be scratching the surface of what he's capable of given the tremendous raw power packed into his 6'7", 275-pound frame.
"He is a freak. His size and strength, his athletic ability, he has an extreme gift. ... I was as impressed with him as a person as any player I've been around since I've come up to the big leagues," teammate Chase Headley told Andrew Marchand of ESPN.com.
If Judge tails off a bit this spring, it's not out of the question to think the team could send him back to Triple-A to start the season with Aaron Hicks and Rob Refsnyder keeping right field warm until he's ready.
That's not an indictment on his long-term potential, but it's a warning to Yankee fans that he might not be ready to step into that middle-of-the-order role as soon as hoped.
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RHP Tyler Glasnow, Pittsburgh Pirates
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In terms of pure stuff, Tyler Glasnow has as much upside as any pitching prospect in the game.
The towering 6'8" right-hander boasts a mid-to-upper-90s fastball, a curveball that flashes plus at times and a developing changeup, and he uses his big frame well to pitch on a downward plane.
The issue is his command.
The 23-year-old has missed plenty of bats during his time in the minors with an eye-popping 645 strikeouts in 500 innings, but he's also handed out entirely too many free passes.
He's walked batters at a 5.1 BB/9 clip in the upper levels of the minors the past two seasons, and he walked six in six innings of work during his brief time in the majors.
To put that into perspective, only five qualified starters had a walk rate above 4.0 BB/9 in the majors last season, with Francisco Liriano (4.7) tops in that category.
Simply put, pitchers can't succeed at the highest level when they're handing the other team so many free baserunners.
Glasnow just needs to trust his stuff.
"There were times in the big leagues where it appeared that Glasnow was trying to be too fine and didn't trust his stuff. There will always be walks to contend with, but if he can go after major league hitters like he did with opponents in the minors, he should find more consistent success at the highest level," wrote MLB.com's Prospect Watch.
There's still plenty of time for Glasnow to develop into the front-line starter that many envision him becoming, but expecting him to be a key cog in the Pittsburgh Pirates rotation this coming season might be asking too much.
SS Dansby Swanson, Atlanta Braves
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Dansby Swanson is going to be a great player.
Heck, he might even win NL Rookie of the Year honors, thanks to having a clear path to an everyday job from the onset of the season.
However, expecting him to follow in the footsteps of guys like Carlos Correa, Francisco Lindor and Corey Seager in terms of immediate offensive impact might be asking too much.
Let's take a look at the projections for Swanson:
Good numbers for a 23-year-old rookie?
Absolutely, but not exactly on par with what we saw from that aforementioned crop of impressive rookie shortstops.
The status of the Braves as a rebuilding club also adds to the pressure and expectations that will be heaped on Swanson, as Cory McCartney of Fox Sports explained: "It's hard to imagine—in the short term anyway—the take on the rebuild not being tied to Swanson. It's an unfair set of pressures, but considering the few impact bats the Braves have knocking on the door and Swanson's quick ascension to the bigs, he stands the face of progress."
The former No. 1 overall pick has all the tools to be a star, but it could take him a few years to turn his offensive potential into star-level production.
All stats courtesy of Baseball Reference and FanGraphs, unless otherwise noted.
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