Laying Out 2017 MVP Cases for NBA's Top Candidates
We've viewed the race for the 2017 NBA MVP award as a two-man affair (between James Harden and Russell Westbrook) for so long that we've neglected other candidates' resumes.
Three of those guys—LeBron James, Stephen Curry and Kevin Durant—have won the hardware in the past. One, Kawhi Leonard, conducts himself as if he were made of silent, unfeeling bronze.
And they've all been pretty good too!
With only a few weeks left in the 2016-17 season, it's time to revisit the arguments for every viable MVP. And even if we can't dissuade voters from focusing on just two contenders, we can at least get each option's bona fides on record.
The following MVP candidates are listed in alphabetical order.
Honorable Mentions
1 of 7
Kyle Lowry
Once playing better than everyone but James in the East, Lowry's candidacy took a major hit when the Toronto Raptors fell apart in January. His recent wrist surgery put it to an end entirely.
Isaiah Thomas
All that fourth-quarter scoring (Thomas leads the league) for one of the East's best teams is enough to warrant a nod here. But Thomas won't get serious MVP consideration because of the ghastly picture that stats paint of his defensive impact. It's unlikely Thomas is truly the worst defensive player in the NBA, which is what RPM says he is, but that's a stat we can't just ignore.
Electrifying? Yes.
Worthy of more than a passing mention for MVP? Nope.
John Wall is on Harden's heels for the assist crown this season, and the Washington Wizards' surge into the East's upper tier supports at least some All-NBA consideration for the guy leading the charge.
But Wall's defense hasn't been as reliable as it has in the past, and his overall numbers aren't in the same strata as the serious contenders.
Stephen Curry, Golden State Warriors
2 of 7
Kevin Durant's MVP case has been compromised by the presence of another MVP-level star. That equally applies to Steph Curry.
The bigger hurdle for Curry, though: Nobody has taken home three straight MVP awards since Larry Bird did it from 1983-84 to 1985-86. It just doesn't happen anymore—both because it's tough to play at that level for such an extended stretch, and because voters apparently aren't willing to give the same guy the trophy more than twice in a row.
Voter fatigue stinks.
Curry also had nowhere to go but down after his unanimous honor last season. And even though he's ninth in RPM and 11th in box plus-minus, there's something that feels disappointing about his efforts.
At the same time, Curry is still the most important player on what might be the greatest team of all time (so far). Golden State is on pace to set the record for highest average margin of victory, and he remains the most positively impactful figure on the roster. The Warriors outscore foes by 17.1 points per 100 possessions with Curry on the floor but just 2.6 when he rests. That split is higher than anyone else's in this discussion, and it's nearly double that of Durant.
Pretty solid for a "down year."
Kevin Durant, Golden State Warriors
3 of 7
Volume and counting numbers always matter in the MVP discussion, which is too bad for Kevin Durant.
He's averaging career highs in rebounds, assists and blocks per 36 minutes while also being on pace to set his new personal best in true shooting percentage. He's third in player efficiency rating, third in true shooting percentage, eighth in points per game and 10th in blocks per game.
Though it probably shouldn't be a surprise, he's acclimated to life on a superteam almost seamlessly. There's no doubt KD's efficiency on offense and demonstrable improvement on D are partially products of his new environment. But, I mean, he's still doing those things. So we can't just blow past incredible rate stats and elite rim protection from one of the three or four best pure scorers in the game without giving him some credit.
It's possible Durant was playing at his absolute peak right now—and this is a former MVP we're talking about. We have to say "was," because he just hyperextended his knee Tuesday night and could miss extended time.
Realistically, the presence of another transcendent talent in Golden State makes it difficult to see KD winning more hardware. And that's if he's even able to return during the regular season.
But it's not like you have to stretch to make Durant's objective case based on up-to-this-point production.
James Harden, Houston Rockets
4 of 7
If James Harden wins his first MVP award, it'll be because he accessed a previously underutilized feature of his offensive game.
Already one of the most overwhelming individual scorers in the league, Harden is also now its preeminent facilitator.
Harden was empowered by head coach Mike D'Antoni as a primary ball-handler. He has become the NBA's leader in assists per game and has posted at least seven dimes in all 61 games he's played this season. You have to go back almost a quarter-century, (to Utah Jazz legend John Stockton), in order to find a longer streak than that.
With the distance between them and Russell Westbrook's Oklahoma City Thunder looking insurmountable, the Houston Rockets and their NBA third-best net rating of plus-6.1 give Harden a major edge in the team-success component of the MVP battle. The Thunder, for reference, have a negative net rating on the season.
Harden outstrips Westbrook in field-goal percentage, three-point percentage and free-throw percentage as well, while the turnover difference is negligible. Both cough it up a ton.
He's not matching Westbrook's triple-double binge, but Harden's 28.8 points, 11.3 assists and 8.1 rebounds are nothing to scoff at. With superior efficiency, he has been nearly as statistically productive on balance.
This feels like his award to lose.
LeBron James, Cleveland Cavaliers
5 of 7
It'll be hard for LeBron James to win his fifth MVP award. The only thing harder might be arguing he's not still the best player in the NBA.
We're tired of LeBron, which is stupid and sad and totally unfair. But by setting the bar so high and dominating for so long, James has acclimatized us to his greatness. We are desensitized.
His counting numbers—25.7 points, 8.9 assists and 7.9 rebounds—are absurd, as is the fact he's posting the third-highest true-shooting percentage of his career. Better still, you can get to LeBron's winning MVP using either of the traditional routes: team success or singular, squad-saving excellence. He has his Cleveland Cavaliers perched firmly atop the East, and he's the only thing keeping them afloat.
The Cavs are cruising, but they get outscored by 4.7 points per 100 possessions without LeBron. When he sits out entirely, their record is 0-4.
James' ability to manipulate and control the nine other players on the floor is unparalleled. And he's doing all this—tossing up obviously fantastic numbers and subtly orchestrating the proceedings with next-level nuance—while averaging 37.5 minutes per game in his 14th season.
If the MVP is supposed to go to the best player (and nobody's really sure that's the case), James has a legitimate case.
Kawhi Leonard, San Antonio Spurs
6 of 7
It kind of feels like Kawhi Leonard would prefer we not even discuss his MVP candidacy.
But that's not really an option in light of the league's reigning Defensive Player of the Year adding "offensive juggernaut" to his resume. Leonard is averaging more points than both James and Curry while leading the San Antonio Spurs (who would probably also prefer we not discuss them) to the NBA's second-best record. He ranks second in PER behind Westbrook, which is difficult to fathom for a guy who barely needs counting stats to qualify as a star-caliber player.
Think of it this way: If in addition to piling up absurd numbers, Westbrook were also suddenly one of the NBA's best defensive stoppers, we'd all be leaping at the chance to name him MVP.
Leonard is basically the reverse of that: Already a megastar on D, he's added all the conventional statistical goodies voters typically like.
We've said enough, though. This word count has already exceeded Leonard's sum total of on-the-record comments this season.
Russell Westbrook, Oklahoma City Thunder
7 of 7
Triple-doubles are arbitrary and their significance is overblown, but they still offer a good window into how much stuff Westbrook has to do for the Thunder to be moderately successful.
If his averages of 31.0 points, 10.6 rebounds and 10.3 assists hold, Westbrook will become the first player to average a triple-double since Oscar Robertson. But you know all that, and you've also probably heard the reasons why the differences between eras make the comparison a faulty one.
But doing something no one's done for more than 50 years has a way of sticking in voters' minds.
MVPs almost always come from teams with huge win totals, but Westbrook's case is an example of an outlier; in a sense, his team's underperformance can be spun into a positive. He's doing a lot without much help, his advocates would argue—probably by citing the evidence that OKC plays to a plus-3.0 net rating with Westbrook on the floor and craters to a minus-10.5 without him.
Even if you don't buy the weakness of Westbrook's supporting cast as a point in his favor, you might still consider his being on pace to shatter the record for highest single-season usage percentage.
No one else in the league would still be walking upright under a burden that heavy.
Follow Grant on Twitter @gt_hughes and Facebook.
Stats courtesy of NBA.com and Basketball-Reference.com unless otherwise indicated and are accurate through games played Tuesday, Feb. 28.
