10 Youngsters Who Could Use a Change of Scenery at 2016-17 NBA Trade Deadline
DeMarcus Cousins isn't the only NBA player who needs a change of scenery.
The chaotic portion of the Association's trade season officially began immediately after the All-Star Game, when the Sacramento Kings dealt their big man to the New Orleans Pelicans, as The Vertical's Adrian Wojnarowski first reported. Even more dominoes will fall between now and the Feb. 23 deadline.
Veterans over the age of 25, such as Cousins, tend to dominate this portion of the year. They're the ones who, in most cases, are going to have the greatest impact on their new teams, or who've been in their current digs long enough to know it's not working.
We're leaving these old fogies behind in favor of players aged 25 or younger who need a midseason one-way ticket out of town.
Overcrowded rotations, contract status, team fit and individual performances will all be weighed when choosing relocation candidates. Supply and demand, as dictated by the rumor mill, will also factor into the selection process.
To keep the focus on prospective suitors and trades, we'll be constructing deals for every player. Multiple names will be packed into the same space whenever they're being moved as part of the same transaction, so there won't be any overlap.
K.J. McDaniels (Rockets)
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Atlanta Hawks Receive: SG/SF K.J. McDaniels, 2017 second-round pick (from Denver, via Houston)
Houston Rockets Receive: SG/SF Thabo Sefolosha
Just four rotational players who are currently in the NBA have matched K.J. McDaniels' per-36-minute scoring (13.1), rebound (5.4), steal (1.1) and block (1.7) output through the first three seasons of their careers: Clint Capela, Anthony Davis, Andre Drummond and Jusuf Nurkic...
...is what I would write if the goal was to pretend McDaniels is some game-changing acquisition, but he's not. He's buried on the Houston Rockets bench, behind even Corey Brewer.
McDaniels needs to play at this point. He is 24 with tantalizing defensive tools, but he hasn't cracked the 250-minute plateau since his rookie campaign in Philadelphia. We can't say for sure what he is or what he'll become; we only know there's no place for him in the rotation of a title contender.
The Atlanta Hawks have more flexibility as they compete for a top-five playoff berth in the Eastern Conference—and the first- or second-round exit that comes with it.
Thabo Sefolosha, who was nursing a groin injury leading into the All-Star break, was on the chopping block until Atlanta called a mulligan, per ESPN.com's Brian Windhorst and Marc Stein. He is a suffocating perimeter defender, and his 32.9 percent three-point clip will jump within a Rockets system that generates more wide-open triples than any other team.
Though McDaniels won't be a lateral move away from Sefolosha, he provides the same positional versatility. His peak—an athletic pest with improving touch around the basket—fits Atlanta's defensive structure, and he's showing flashes, albeit faint ones, of serviceable outside touch (33.3 percent from deep).
Landing McDaniels and his bargain-bin $3.5 million team option for next season also allows the Hawks to roll the dice on Tim Hardaway Jr.'s restricted free agency. They will no longer be faced with losing both him and Sefolosha for nothing over the summer and can therefore let the market for one of their fastest-rising players develop before ruling out his return.
Trading for McDaniels is worth that opportunity alone.
Doug McDermott (Bulls)
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Boston Celtics Receive: PF/C Taj Gibson, SF Doug McDermott
Chicago Bulls Receive: PF Amir Johnson, SG/SF James Young, 2019 lottery-protected first-round pick (from Los Angeles Clippers, via Boston), two 2017 second-round picks (from Minnesota and Los Angeles Clippers, via Boston)
In a terribly unsurprising turn of events, Doug McDermott is available for the taking, according to Basketball Insiders' Michael Scotto.
The 25-year-old has yet to develop into more than a spot-up specimen, and that's not going to change with the Chicago Bulls. They don't have the touches for him to experiment with an attack mode, and their blobby offense doesn't manufacture enough three-pointers to deploy standstill snipers who don't move the defensive needle.
McDermott wouldn't be given unconditional freedom to create his own shots with the Boston Celtics; Isaiah Thomas will have a thing or two to say about that. But the Celtics fire more catch-and-shoot threebies than any team outside Cleveland and Houston.
McDermott will put his 38.3 percent accuracy in those situations to good use, and the defensive trade-off of playing him at the 3 or 4 won't be so stark when he's surrounded by some combination of Avery Bradley, Jaylen Brown, Jae Crowder and Marcus Smart.
Getting first-round compensation for McDermott alone is likely a futile endeavor for Chicago. He no longer holds the intrigue of a top-11 pick and will be a restricted free agent in 2018.
Pair him with Taj Gibson, and the Bulls are on to something. Boston is in the market for a big, per The Vertical's Shams Charania, and his expiring contract meshes with team president Danny Ainge's refusal to pay sticker price.
If you're the Bulls, you take this collection of picks and filler. Gibson is a goner this summer, and they have no business being part of McDermott's next deal when they're dead last in three-pointers made and attempted.
Ben McLemore (Kings) and Cameron Payne (Thunder)
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Oklahoma City Thunder Receive: PG Darren Collison, SG Ben McLemore
Sacramento Kings Receive: SG/SF Anthony Morrow, PG Cameron Payne
Arron Afflalo, Darren Collison and 24-year-old Ben McLemore are all up for grabs now that Sacramento has shipped DeMarcus Cousins to New Orleans, according to The Vertical's Chris Mannix.
Let the bidding begin.
OK, that's a poor choice of words. Buyers won't be lining up to acquire any of these dudes, including McLemore—especially McLemore.
Any hope he had of morphing into Ray Allen 2.0 is gone. He will enter restricted free agency this July as an average shooter and underdeveloped defender, his most attractive trait being his opportunity to play anywhere but Sacramento.
As luck would have it, the Oklahoma City Thunder need a shooter. Actually, they need all the shooters. They are tied with the Detroit Pistons for the lowest success rate on uncontested three-pointers (32.1 percent) and hit less than 31 percent of their long-range looks off Russell Westbrook passes (146-of-473).
Cameron Payne was the Thunder's primary bait in Rudy Gay proposals, per Mannix. His expendability doesn't change in the wake of Gay's season-ending Achilles injury. There will only be so many minutes and touches for him in Oklahoma City when he's playing behind mutant-ninja Westbrook.
The Kings have every reason to take a flyer here. They don't have their point guard of the future in place and shouldn't be paying Collison to stick around beyond this season. Payne has one year left on his rookie deal and jibes with general manager Vlade Divac's goal to, per a team announcement, "build the depth needed for a talented and developing roster" following Cousins' departure.
Forking over a lottery prospect for two expiring deals pulls the Thunder outside their comfort zone. But Collison is an immediate upgrade at backup point guard, and McLemore is great long-term insurance should an ambitious suitor throw gobs of money at restricted-free-agent-to-be Andre Roberson this summer.
Mario Hezonja (Magic) and Brandon Knight (Suns)
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Orlando Magic Receive: PG/SG Leandro Barbosa, PG/SG Brandon Knight
Phoenix Suns Receive: SF/PF Jeff Green, SG/SF Mario Hezonja
Mario Hezonja's standing with the Orlando Magic was in flux long before Terrence Ross came over in the Serge Ibaka trade. He remained an inconsistent fixture in head coach Frank Vogel's rotation, and Stein identified him as one of the team's many (many) auction-block staples.
Brandon Knight has similarly outlived his purpose with the Phoenix Suns. Head coach Earl Watson stashed him in the second unit to make way for the Eric Bledsoe-Devin Booker backcourt, and Knight has responded with the worst season of his career. His shooting percentages are at an all-time low, and he owns the Association's second-worst plus-minus.
So why not swap souring experiments?
Phoenix could use another wing with P.J. Tucker on the verge of free agency. Hezonja turns 22 on Feb. 25 and is less than two years removed from being taken with the fifth overall pick.
Slot him in the right situation, and he'll get buckets. He drilled 36.7 percent of his spot-up deep balls as a rookie last season and was even more lethal when given at least four feet of breathing room (39.3 percent). Those numbers have dipped this year, but it's tough to find a groove when playing time isn't guaranteed and your offense is bogged down by non-shooters.
No one is interested in dealing for Knight, according to ESPN.com's Zach Lowe. But the Magic are clearly in search of a different look at point guard. Most recently, Stein linked them to Detroit's Reggie Jackson.
Knight won't duplicate Jackson's dribble penetration, and using him as your primary floor general has, historically, not equated to efficient offensive production. But he can play on or off the ball, making him a solid fit alongside the Magic's other point men—including Elfrid Payton.
Potential upgrades won't come cheaper than Knight, either. Jackson will command two first-round talents, and Orlando shouldn't be looking at Ricky Rubio when Payton is his spirit animal.
Knight probably won't cost more than Hezonja and filler, and at 25, he's young enough for his next team to play the youthful(ish) card—particularly when he's on a deal that was inked before the cap eruption and spans through 2019-20.
Emmanuel Mudiay (Nuggets)
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Denver Nuggets Receive: PG Eric Bledsoe, SF P.J. Tucker
Phoenix Suns Receive: SG Malik Beasley, SF/PF Wilson Chandler, PG Emmanuel Mudiay, 2017 unprotected first-round pick
The Denver Nuggets offense is much better off running things through Nikola Jokic. And that's bad news for Emmanuel Muiday, a ball-dominant point guard now tasked with spending more time away from the action.
Since Jokic permanently rejoined Denver's starting five, more than 26 percent of Mudiay's offensive looks are coming as catch-and-shoot triples, up from 21.2 beforehand. His field-goal percentage is worlds better next to the Serbian sensation, and he's not suffering a severe drop in his assist rate when they play together. But the partnership is still weird.
Mudiay needs to be somewhere he can develop as the foremost facilitator. The Nuggets don't have the bandwidth to groom him as such, and they've explored his trade market accordingly, per Lowe.
The Suns profile as a good destination. They aren't blatantly angling for a teardown, but as Lowe noted, Bledsoe's divergent timeline has crossed their minds.
"If the right team offered a good wing or center, plus a high first-round pick, the Suns would at least have to listen," he wrote. "But teams are reluctant to trade lottery picks in February, before learning where they fall in the draft order."
Stocking the cupboard with a 20-year-old Mudiay, 20-year-old Malik Beasley and an unprotected pick in a loaded draft gives Phoenix incentive enough to ditch its faulty balancing act and embrace a full-tilt rebuild.
Danilo Gallinari can be subbed in for Wilson Chandler if general manager Ryan McDonough prefers to open more cap space this summer, but he can always flip the latter's below-market deal (player option for 2018-19) in favor of additional picks or prospects later.
For the Nuggets, this is their counter to the Pelicans' acquisition of DeMarcus Cousins. Neither Jimmy Butler nor Paul George is likely to become available ahead of the deadline, and they need a star or fringe star to strengthen their case for the Western Conference's eighth and final playoff spot.
Bledsoe, like Mudiay, is an unspectacular shooter. But he's a more reliable off-ball weapon and better equipped to defend rival point guards. If the Nuggets can nab him without emptying their stable of trade chips, they should give it a go.
Andre Drummond (Pistons), Jahlil Okafor (Sixers) and Noah Vonleh (Blazers)
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Detroit Pistons Receive: SF/PF Maurice Harkless, PF/C Meyers Leonard, C Jahlil Okafor, PG/SG Lou Williams
Los Angeles Lakers Receive: SG Darrun Hilliard, 2017 top-five protected first-round pick (from Memphis, via Portland)
Philadelphia 76ers Receive: PF/C Noah Vonleh, 2018 second-round pick (via Detroit)
Portland Trail Blazers Receive: SG/SF Reggie Bullock, C Andre Drummond, PG Beno Udrih
Would the Pistons really trade Andre Drummond mere months after handing him a five-year, $127.2 million contract? They've considered it, per Lowe. And they tried using Drummond as Cousins bait, according to Scotto.
As CBS Sports' Matt Moore wrote, Detroit has enough motivation to cut ties with its franchise center:
"The Pistons rank 11th in defense, which is really good. There should be no problem there. Except that almost all of their good defense comes behind the bench units. Their franchise icons are posting near-league-worst numbers, and the eye test backs it up. When Jackson and Andre Drummond share the floor together, the Pistons are surrendering 110 points per 100 possessions, and that number only drops to 108 when Jackson sits and Drummond plays. So when their franchise center is on the court, their defense is eight points worse per 100 possessions.
"
Moving Drummond, 23, won't fix everything that's wrong with the Pistons, but getting this much for him makes it worthwhile.
Meyers Leonard is a younger, more athletic Jon Leuer—and we know how well Leuer has worked out in Detroit. Maurice Harkless gives coach-president Stan Van Gundy more versatility on defense, while Lou Williams instantly drums up the value of a 23rd-ranked offense. Jahlil Okafor doesn't escape the bench by swapping Detroit for Philly, but he's already a better back-to-the-basket scorer than Drummond.
Unlike the Pistons, the Portland Trail Blazers won't let him burn through a ton of post-ups; they're built for him to block shots and finish pick-and-rolls—a role for which Drummond is ideal. That this only costs one of their three 2017 first-rounders is huge. They'll still be able to use Cleveland's selection to grease the wheels of a Festus Ezeli trade.
Okafor, 21, would be a member of the Pelicans if Sixers general manager Bryan Colangelo didn't hold out for more than a top-20 protected draft pick, per ESPN.com's Ramona Shelburne. The market for bigs who don't chuck threes or protect the rim doesn't exist. Philly would have been lucky to get a first-round pick from New Orleans, and it's lucky to get Noah Vonleh now.
While Vonleh hasn't done much since being drafted ninth overall in 2014, he has all the trimmings of a stretch big. He has shot at least 35 percent from downtown in two of his first three seasons and is a good safety net should Ersan Ilyasova price himself out of the Sixers' range in free agency. Plus, he's still just 21(!) and barely 10 games into his time as an everyday contributor for Portland.
The Los Angeles Lakers have the easiest call of anyone involved in this super-blockbuster. They lock up a first-round pick for an over-30 Lou Williams without getting a crummy contract in return and shouldn't hesitate to give the green light.
Dan Favale covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Listen to his Hardwood Knocks podcast co-hosted by B/R's Andrew Bailey and Adam Fromal.
Stats courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com or NBA.com and accurate leading into games on Feb. 23.
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