Meet the 10 Teams That Have Chances to Win the 2018 College Football Playoff
Though the 2018 College Football Playoff is a speck on the horizon, fans and analysts alike already have championship favorites in mind for the upcoming season.
But which teams could lift the trophy?
While each conference has at least three major contenders, our task was narrowing down the overall group to 10 schools. In that process, we eliminated promising teams like Auburn, Georgia, Penn State and Washington. Wisconsin is a wild card because it's waiting on Malik Zaire's transfer decision.
Inevitably, there will be negative reactions to some of the aforementioned teams being excluded. That doesn't mean any of those schools are headed for terrible seasons; rather, they'll fall short of the ultimate goal.
The following 10, though—largely based on returning contributors and schedules—have the best chances to claim national glory.
Michigan
1 of 10
Picking between Michigan and Penn State was difficult. You could make a compelling argument either way.
The Wolverines lost a majority of their elite defense, and the Nittany Lions bring back Trace McSorley, Saquon Barkley and most of their top targets from the 2016 Big Ten championship squad. The simple—and completely reasonable—choice is favoring the known.
Counting out Jim Harbaugh and Don Brown seems unwise, however. Outstanding coaching is significant, and the schedule also offers the reloading team something potentially decisive: time.
After a neutral-site opener against Florida, the Wolverines face Cincinnati, Air Force, Purdue, Michigan State and Indiana. Easy? No. But daunting? Not that, either.
There's a real chance Michigan goes 9-3, but Brown's aggressive scheme makes for a challenging matchup. If Penn State—which should have the Big Ten's best offense but struggled mightily against Michigan last year and travels to Ohio State in 2017—cannot overcome it, a mid-October victory could spark an impressive run for the Wolverines.
Louisville
2 of 10
Louisville will travel to North Carolina and host Clemson in the second and third weeks of the season, respectively. After that stretch, the Cardinals should rattle off four wins before going to Florida State.
Barring two early losses, that matchup will decide their ceiling.
Lamar Jackson, the 2016 Heisman Trophy winner, returns after amassing 5,114 yards of offense and 51 total touchdowns. He'll stand behind three new offensive linemen, which is a notable concern because the unit was the Cards' weakness last year.
But as the dual-threat quarterback continues to develop as a passer, he'll only become more dangerous. Efficiency is key for Jackson next season while Louisville replaces four key defensive players. The secondary will be the strength of the unit, so a reliable front seven would make the Cardinals a tough out in the ACC.
A soft nonconference schedule and favorable crossover matchups give Louisville a great opportunity to finish 11-1. That all depends on the result in Tallahassee, but that contest is the definition of a late-season "prove yourself" game for any championship contender.
We know Jackson has the talent to win that showdown. Knocking off FSU would show the Cardinals can beat anyone.
Oklahoma
3 of 10
Baker Mayfield's talent and the offensive genius of Lincoln Riley mean Oklahoma must be respected as the Big 12 favorite and a potential championship team.
However, that pursuit won't come without a massive complication. Oklahoma needs to replace Samaje Perine, Joe Mixon and Dede Westbrook, who accounted for a combined 4,603 rushing and receiving yards and 45 total touchdowns.
The road schedule is also unforgiving, as the Sooners will travel to Ohio State, Baylor, Kansas State and Oklahoma State and play their annual matchup against Texas in Dallas.
But Mayfield has guided Oklahoma to a 17-1 conference record in the last two seasons. The defense, which returns a majority of its production, will determine whether Mayfield's big numbers are wasted in the high-scoring Big 12.
Although the Sooners can recover from what would be an understandable road loss in Columbus, their margin for error would be greatly slimmed. On the other hand, Bob Stoops' squad could notch a marquee nonconference win that the CFP committee loves to see.
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Oklahoma State
4 of 10
No path is easy, but Oklahoma State has a less complicated road to the CFP than its chief rival. The key for Mike Gundy's club is surviving the games prior to Oklahoma.
From Sep. 16 to Oct. 28, the team will alternate away and home games with Pitt, TCU, Texas Tech and Baylor before traveling to Texas and West Virginia. The Cowboys will then host the Bedlam game.
Similar to Oklahoma, the glaring issue is a potentially suspect defense. But with the firepower of a Mason Rudolph-led scoring attack, Oklahoma State has the offense to compete.
Last season, Rudolph topped the 4,000-yard mark, and running back Justice Hill scampered for 1,142 yards in his college debut. Standout receiver James Washington finished with 1,380 yards, and quick-hitting target Jalen McCleskey reeled in a team-best 73 passes as a sophomore.
The Pokes need to reach Bedlam either undefeated or 7-1. A home victory there, and they'll be in great position to crash the CFP.
LSU
5 of 10
Derrius Guice exploded onto the national scene last season while filling in for Leonard Fournette, collecting 1,387 rushing yards and 15 scores. The offensive line loses a couple of starters but has a fair bit of experience ready to step in.
But is Danny Etling a championship-caliber quarterback?
The defense should be excellent, as long as Arden Key returns from his absence from the team. LSU has tremendous depth at defensive tackle, middle linebacker and cornerback. Plug in pieces around them, and it should be another top-10 unit.
But can Etling guide the Tigers to a championship?
After hiring Matt Canada as the offensive coordinator, LSU now boasts one of the best coaching staffs in the country. Ed Orgeron has adapted his style to reflect today's game, and Dave Aranda is a brilliant defensive mind.
But none of that matters unless Etling improves. He guided the Tigers to eight wins last year but mustered a 52.6 completion percentage with one touchdown and 414 total yards in three losses.
His performances in the biggest games—at Florida, vs. Auburn, at Alabama, at Tennessee—will dictate LSU's level of success.
Clemson
6 of 10
Clemson has the proper upside at every position, but the biggest question is the same as LSU's: Who's the quarterback?
The (obvious) difference for Dabo Swinney and Co. is who was under center last year. Although Deshaun Watson made plenty of mistakes, there was nobody in the country who performed better in clutch moments. He's now headed to the NFL.
So the Tigers may turn to Kelly Bryant. Whether he sticks in the starting position is dependent on how quickly top recruit Hunter Johnson is ready to take over. Either way, Clemson will be propelled by its defense.
Christian Wilkins, Dexter Lawrence and Clelin Ferrell lead a fierce defensive line, and the linebacker unit returns both Kendall Joseph and Dorian O'Daniel. Van Smith, Ryan Carter, Mark Fields and Marcus Edmond all return in the secondary.
The Tigers simply must settle on a quarterback quickly because they will host Auburn and travel to both Louisville and Virginia Tech in September alone. If that happens, Clemson shouldn't be an underdog until Florida State comes to town on Nov. 11.
But that's a season-defining if.
Ohio State
7 of 10
Ohio State was a year ahead of schedule in 2016, making a slightly unanticipated run to the College Football Playoff.
The overall struggles of the passing game doomed the Buckeyes, so the offseason will be a pivotal time for both J.T. Barrett and the offensive linemen. Ohio State can ride its rushing attack and defense for most of the year, but a championship won't be possible unless opposing secondaries are threatened.
Development at receiver is essential. Though the unit is loaded with young talent—K.J. Hill, Binjimen Victor, Austin Mack—it's now a matter of turning potential into production.
The defensive backfield will face a similar task following the early departures of Malik Hooker, Gareon Conley and Marshon Lattimore. Raekwon McMillan leaves a glaring void at inside linebacker, too. But the Buckeyes have recruited well at each of those spots.
Oklahoma's early trip to Columbus is the most exciting game, and last season showed how valuable a victory like that can be.
Still, navigating a late-season stretch against Penn State, Iowa, Michigan State, Illinois and Michigan is Ohio State's key to the CFP.
USC
8 of 10
The good news is that Sam Darnold, Robert Jones II and five top defenders all return and will only be juniors in 2017. The best news is that USC won't open the year with Alabama.
Granted, the Trojans will still face Stanford and Texas in back-to-back September weeks, but that's far more promising than what they encountered last season en route to a 1-3 start.
And it helps to have several marquee matchups at home. In addition to Stanford and Texas, USC will welcome Utah and UCLA to the Coliseum. Clay Helton's team will travel to Washington State, Notre Dame and Colorado.
While USC must retool the offensive line and receiving corps, a quarterback like Darnold can help the offense power through the chemistry-building phase. Those positions need to be locked in by mid-October, but a 5-1 or 6-0 start is feasible.
The last time the Trojans entered the offseason with this much hype, they opened 6-1 before dropping five of the last six games. Darnold's task is keeping USC from repeating the latter.
Florida State
9 of 10
We couldn't ask for a better season-opening matchup. Florida State will clash with Alabama on Sep. 2 in Atlanta.
The showdown is simply the starting point of the Seminoles' tough schedule. Two weeks later, FSU will host Miami. One month after that, Louisville will come to town. During the two of the final three weekends, the Seminoles will go to Clemson and Florida.
If Florida State makes it through the regular season with only one loss, it's unlikely the CFP committee will shut out Jimbo Fisher's team. That's a credit to hard scheduling and good fortune in timing of conference success.
Derwin James' recovery will boost a defense that improved in a massive way last year after the surprising loss to North Carolina. Much of the front seven is back, so the unit could be a dominant force in the ACC.
Deondre Francois impressed as a redshirt freshman, and two of FSU's top three wide receivers return. As long as the running game patches the Dalvin Cook-sized void with Jacques Patrick and one more player, the offense will be balanced.
The Seminoles could not face a more challenging test right away. Compete with Alabama—let alone beat it—and there's no reason they aren't talented enough to storm through the difficult slate.
Alabama
10 of 10
Good luck finding a list that doesn't include Alabama.
Nick Saban's program has earned a constant place on preseason lists. Detractors may scream bias, but the Crimson Tide have appeared in five of the last eight championships—as well as three consecutive College Football Playoffs.
Receiver production is a legitimate concern while the front seven undergoes a major face-lift, but Alabama brings back Jalen Hurts, Bo Scarbrough, Da'Ron Payne, Minkah Fitzpatrick and several other key players. There's no shortage of highly recruited talents ready to make their presences felt in 2017.
Lane Kiffin's departure will likely affect the offense more than the nation appears to believe. However, as long as the Tide continue to boast a top-tier defense, they'll remain the favorite.
Florida State is an enjoyable matchup for us, but Alabama's biggest games are still LSU and Auburn. Win those, and the College Football Playoff will be a likely destination for the fourth straight year.
All recruiting information via Scout.com. Stats from CFBStats.com or B/R research. Quotes obtained firsthand unless otherwise noted.
Follow Bleacher Report CFB Writer David Kenyon on Twitter @Kenyon19_BR.
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