Super Bowl Odds 2017: Point Spread, Score and Patriots vs. Falcons Predictions

Do you remember the hype before Super Bowl XLVIII?

That contest pitted the No. 1 offense in football, the Denver Broncos, against the No. 1 defense, the Seattle Seahawks, and the old guard, quarterback Peyton Manning, against the new regime, Russell Wilson and The Legion of Boom.

Super Bowl XLVIII had the makings of a classic.

Then the game started, and the Seahawks earned a safety on the first play from scrimmage following a botched Denver snap. When the score was 22-0 Seattle at halftime, everyone who hadn't already lost hope for a Denver comeback officially did so.

Here's the kicker: The Denver Broncos were favored by 2.5 points, but they lost 43-8 in a game that somehow seemed worse than the final score indicated.

That all leads to the following point about Sunday's Super Bowl LI matchup: Although the New England Patriots are favored by three points, and although the over/under total is a record-high 58, both facts per OddsShark, anything can happen.

Yes, this could be a high-scoring, 34-31 shootout, but the Atlanta Falcons could also win 10-7. Or maybe the Pats are even better than we thought they were and smoke Atlanta 40-14.

I wouldn't cash out my 401K and bet my life savings on either of those latter two outcomes, but you never know.

For this article, we'll take a look at three possible game flows that go against the commonly held Super Bowl LI shootout narrative, providing reasoning for each. We'll make a score prediction at the end.

New England Blows Atlanta Out

Bill Barnwell of ESPN, one of, if not the best football writer in the business, predicted that New England would beat Atlanta handily 34-17 in a preview article longer than War and Peace.

Here's one comment Barnwell made about the Atlanta pass rush:

"

This game keeps coming back to that pass-rush problem for me. It's tough to believe the two most recent games we've seen, with the Falcons suddenly morphing into the '85 Bears of pass pressure, are more meaningful than the 16 other games we saw, where their pass rush was relatively tame. 

"

The issue is if the Falcons can't get to Patriots quarterback Tom Brady, he's going to pick apart a defense that gave up 406 points in the regular season.

Brady is simply on fire, throwing 28 touchdowns and only two interceptions in 12 regular-season games as he earned a league-best 99.3 grade from Pro Football Focus. He also has made the Super Bowl six times and has much more postseason experience on the big stage than any Falcon.

We could see New England crush Atlanta behind Brady throwing for four touchdowns and over 300 yards.

The Arena Bowl Shootout

The Patriots defense finished first in the league in scoring (250 points). They have a good run-stopping unit, as well as proficient pass defenders.

However, they have one big Achilles' heel, and it's an inability to maintain a consistent and dynamic pass rush.

We've all seen previous Super Bowls in which the games were dictated by one team's ability to get to the quarterback consistently (see: Super Bowl XLII), but it's hard seeing the Pats doing that here considering they finished with a 5.1 percent Adjusted Sack Rate, per Football Outsiders, which ranked seventh-worst in football.

Like Brady and the Pats, if Ryan has time to find his receivers, and Julio Jones has one of his typical breakout games in which he looks like a man playing with boys, then maybe we'll see the highest-scoring game in Super Bowl history.

We're not talking something along the lines of 35-31. We're talking 44-41 or maybe a score that approaches 50 because it's hard to see Atlanta stopping New England on offense.

The Running Games Take the Lead

Both defenses have one notable weakness in common: difficulty stopping pass-catching backs. Atlanta and New England respectively finished first and third in the NFL in most receiving yards allowed to running backs, per Football Outsiders.

Each team has two running backs (Dion Lewis and James White for the Pats, and Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman for the Falcons) who can not only catch the ball out of the backfield but break off big plays for touchdowns as well.

But the key here might be a running back who caught just eight passes all season (including playoffs): Pats running back LeGarrette Blount, who finished with 1,161 yards and 18 touchdowns in the regular season.

When he has it going, Blount can wear down an opposing defense five yards per carry. He's capable of rushing for 20-plus times and a touchdown or two, as he's done multiple times this year.

Using Blount as the focal point of their offensive strategy might be the key for a Patriots win. If he can stay effective, then New England could control the time of possession. And if the Pats are able to do that, then the Falcons offense will be left on the sidelines for long stretches of time.

It's certainly possible that the Pats can pull this off, as Atlanta finished fourth-worst in the NFL in run defense DVOA, per Football Outsiders.

In sum, the Patriots' best defense might be a good ball-control offense.

Score Prediction

The call here is that this game follows the game-flow narrative of Door No. 3 and that Blount and Lewis lead the Pats to their fifth Super Bowl title in 16 seasons.

Although a blowout is on the table, both of these teams didn't exactly luck their way into the Super Bowl and should put up a fight through fourth quarters.

Give the edge to the Pats because of the Falcons' shaky run defense.

Final Score: New England 31, Atlanta 24