Trading Derek Norris Could Bring Nationals Badly Needed Starting Pitcher

You know, it figures.

The Washington Nationals have in their farm system no more than a handful of true position prospects, and of them, only two seem to be of the “can’t miss variety.”

One, Chris Marrero (.284-17-76) is the club’s first baseman of the future and will take his place in D.C. just as soon as he’s ready, probably in 2012.

But the other, catcher Derek Norris (.286-23-84), perhaps the better of the two, is being blocked in Washington by another young and talented catcher, Jesus Flores.

Norris, 20, has improved tremendously at the plate since his rookie season in the Gulf Coast League. Based on a full season, Norris has averaged over the past two years:

AB: 531

R: 96

H: 150

2B: 33

3B: 0

HR: 27

RBI: 98

SB: 13

BB: 122

K: 132

AVG: .286

OBP: .428

SLG: .478

Those are All-Star numbers at any level. Perhaps the most impressive statistic is Norris’ 122 walks and corresponding .428 on-base percentage.

He has power, patience, and good speed for a catcher.

Thebaseballcube.com has a scouting system that looks at a player’s abilities in four key areas—power, speed, contact, and patience—using a 0-100 scale. Here are Norris’ numbers with a similar major leaguer in parenthesis for comparison:

Power: 90 (Carlos Beltran: 90)

Speed: 61 (Alberto Gonzalez: 58)

Contact: 26 (Austin Kearns: 30)

Patience: 100 (Adam Dunn: 98)

There is little doubt that Norris will become a successful major leaguer, and at just 20 this year, will likely be seasoned and ready by the start of the 2012 season.

The problem is that the Nationals’ Jesus Flores will be just 27 in 2012, and just beginning the prime of his career.

Flores had just completed his first full minor league season in 2006, batting .264-21-69 in 429 at-bats for the Mets "A" club in Port St. Lucie, when the Nationals picked him in the Rule V draft that winter.

He was required by rule to remain with the Nationals during the 2007 season, and played well, batting .244-4-25 in 180 at-bats.

Injuries have robbed Flores of close to 200 games over the past two seasons, but he has shown great promise when on the field. Had Flores reached 450 at-bats in 2009, his production would have looked like this:

AB: 450

R: 65

H: 140

2B: 15

3B: 10

HR: 20

RBI: 75

AVG: .301

OBP: .371

SLG: .505

Flores’ thebaseballcube.com numbers, while not as polished as Norris’, are impressive nonetheless:

Power: 86

Speed: 5

Contact: 12

Patience: 12

While Norris has quality credentials, Flores has shown marked improvement and, while he may never win a Gold Glove, he’s going to come close. Last season, Flores had a .993 fielding percentage and threw out 42 percent of would-be base-stealers. Brian Schneider, someone we’re all familiar with and acknowledged to be one of the top fielding catchers in all of baseball, threw out just 34 percent of base runners in 2009.

The Nationals, then, have a quandary. They have Derek Norris, who will one day be a solid major league catcher—and might become one of the best in the league—and they also have Jesus Flores, who is already the second-best offensive catcher in the division.

What should they do?

The last thing the Nationals need is another “maybe” in their future. Norris looks like the real deal, and will likely become a solid major league catcher, perhaps even a star.

But he might not.

Flores has already shown that he is a very good defensive catcher, and offensively, he’ll likely be a .280-20-80 type of producer, and that’s hard to come by from the catching position.

So the Nationals need to trade Derek Norris and trade him this winter.

Norris will never have any higher trade value than he does right now. It’s not often that a minor leaguer shows that type of power production, and I seriously doubt he’ll be able to do it again.

After back-to-back 100-loss seasons, Washington doesn’t have the luxury of looking three years into the future any more. Any actions that aren’t specifically designed to transform this moribund team into a—at the very least—.500 club next year will be useless.

General Manager Mike Rizzo has said several times that the team is looking to add one professional middle infielder, a reliever, and two starting pitchers.

Livan Hernandez can be one of those starters.

Perhaps the second can come via a trade, using Derek Norris as the centerpiece of a multi-player deal. Certainly, Norris and a player on the team’s major league roster—someone like Elijah Dukes—could bring the Nationals a 15-game-winner and a medium prospect in return.

The Nationals could easily replace Dukes with any number of free agents, players like Rick Ankiel, Randy Winn, and Xavier Nady—at least on a short-term basis.

The Nationals gave up two starting players for Lastings Milledge; I am sure that the Nationals could get one solid starting pitcher for two starting players.

I expect this winter to be the busiest of the Nationals’ six offseasons in Washington. With the exceptions of John Lannan, Ryan Zimmerman, and Nyjer Morgan, I doubt there are any “untouchables” on the team. Jesus Flores is also safe, but that’s more the result of his injury history over the past two years.

The team has the opportunity to emerge from the winter meetings much better than they are right now. But to get there, Mike Rizzo and Stan Kasten have to take chances, and trading Derek Norris would certainly fall into that category.

But they have to try. They don’t have a choice.